Genuine Parts Company (GPC)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicGPC trades at 224.3x earnings — a 542% premium to its sector average of 35.0x — without a dominant ROIC-WACC spread. Financial health is average: Piotroski 6/9, Altman Z 2.1. DCF fair value of $18 implies 84% downside based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics of Genuine Parts Company reveal a stark divergence between its robust profitability metrics and severely depressed capital efficiency. While the DuPont decomposition highlights strong operational leverage through an equity multiplier of 4.68x and solid asset turnover, this is counterbalanced by negligible net margins at just 0.3%, resulting in a ROE of only 1.5%. More critically, the company generates a negative spread between its Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 1.6% and Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) of 8.4%, indicating that capital allocation is currently destroying value rather than creating it. Despite a strong Beneish M-Score of -2.68 suggesting low earnings manipulation risk and a respectable Piotroski F-Score of 6/9, the Altman Z-Score of 2.1 signals elevated distress probabilities relative to industry peers, painting a picture of an entity struggling to translate top-line growth into sustainable equity returns.
Valuation metrics present a significant discrepancy between historical norms and current market pricing. The stock trades at a P/E ratio of 220.1x, which is substantially detached from the sector average of 42.1x and implies that the market is pricing in aggressive future expansion rather than current earnings power. This optimism conflicts directly with Discounted Cash Flow analysis, which establishes a fair value of $19, implying an -82.1% downside based on assumed ten-year free cash flow growth rates of only 13%. The disconnect suggests the market may be overvaluing the company's ability to sustain high-growth trajectories given its current negative ROIC-WACC spread and thin net margins that limit reinvestment capacity.
Risk factor analysis further complicates the investment thesis through conflicting Fama-French factors. Although the stock exhibits a robust profitability tilt with an RMW score of 0.694, it simultaneously displays a growth bias (HML: -0.110) and generates negative risk-adjusted returns, evidenced by an annualized Fama-French Alpha of -13.41%. This alpha drag indicates that the stock has underperformed its factor benchmarks over time, failing to deliver excess return relative to its size, value, and profitability characteristics. With insider activity remaining neutral at $0 over the last 90 days, there is no clear signal from management regarding confidence in future capital deployment strategies amidst these fundamental headwinds.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 3% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 6.6% | 8.6% | 10.6% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $28 | $13 | $5 |
| 3% | $39 | $18 | $8 |
| 4% | $59 | $24 | $11 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $99.35.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=8.6%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $18 (-84.0%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 0% below its 5-year average P/E of 229.7x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedThe current price of Genuine Parts Company at $97.62 sits within a context where moving average crossovers and volume trends serve as key lenses for observing institutional positioning. While specific crossover dates are not provided, the interaction between short-term and long-term averages often reveals whether larger market participants are accumulating or distributing shares relative to broader price movements. In this sector, divergences between rising prices and declining volume can sometimes indicate a lack of aggressive capital inflow from major entities, whereas sustained volume alongside upward price action may suggest growing institutional confidence in the asset's trajectory. Price consolidation around current levels frequently precedes significant directional shifts driven by large-cap players adjusting their exposure to consumer cyclical themes. If the stock were to breach key resistance zones with accompanying volume spikes, it could signal that institutions are actively building positions ahead of anticipated earnings or sector-wide rotations. Conversely, a failure to hold support levels despite moderate trading activity might imply that larger funds are reducing exposure due to valuation concerns or shifting capital toward other consumer staples sectors. The absence of extreme volatility in the immediate data suggests a measured approach by sophisticated investors rather than panic-driven selling or euphoric buying. Ultimately, the technical landscape presents a neutral-to-cautious environment where institutional behavior appears to be defined more by patience and selective entry points than by aggressive momentum chasing. Observers should monitor how future price actions interact with established support and resistance zones, as these structural levels often dictate when major players commit significant capital or withdraw it entirely from
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
⚠️ Dividend consumes >80% of FCF — sustainability risk.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-06 | $1.0630 | +3.2% |
| 2025-12-05 | $1.0300 | 0.0% |
| 2025-09-05 | $1.0300 | 0.0% |
| 2025-06-06 | $1.0300 | 0.0% |
| 2025-03-07 | $1.0300 | +3.0% |
| 2024-12-06 | $1.0000 | 0.0% |
| 2024-09-06 | $1.0000 | 0.0% |
| 2024-06-07 | $1.0000 | 0.0% |
| 2024-02-29 | $1.0000 | +5.3% |
| 2023-11-30 | $0.9500 | 0.0% |
| 2023-09-07 | $0.9500 | 0.0% |
| 2023-06-01 | $0.9500 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like NOBL or DVY, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell GPC shares regardless of Genuine Parts Company's individual fundamentals. We estimate $2.2B of passive capital is structurally linked to GPC through 8 tracked ETFs. Index rebalances and ETF creation/redemption cycles can create noticeable volume spikes unrelated to company news.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Genuine Parts Company to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Genuine Parts Company (GPC) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies AMAZON.COM INC (AMZN) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with GPC. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 34 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
GPC Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 5 GPC shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Genuine Parts Company (GPC) exerts notable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 1.2% of the ProShares S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats ETF (NOBL) and 1.1% of the iShares Select Dividend ETF (DVY). Across 36 tracked ETFs, approximately 26M shares (18.9% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest GPC Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 36 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
GPC Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Genuine Parts Company over the past year sits near $136.82 (11% of 252-day volume). The current price of $99.35 sits 27.4% below the POC — suggesting potential mean-reversion upside if institutional demand reasserts at this level.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
GPC Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Genuine Parts Company convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Genuine Parts Company converts 56% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a healthy conversion rate indicating efficient capital management — the business generates substantial cash after reinvestment. However, the ROIC-WACC spread is negative (-7.0%), suggesting reinvested capital is destroying shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-11 | 91 | $104.72 | $9,529.52 |
| 2026-05-05 | 13 | $103.52 | $1,345.76 |
| 2026-05-04 | 773 | $104.99 | $81,157.27 |
| 2026-05-01 | 44,649 | $107.23 | $4.8M |
| 2026-04-22 | 91 | $115.00 | $10,465 |
| 2026-04-20 | 6,114 | $113.79 | $695,712.06 |
| 2026-04-13 | 37 | $107.51 | $3,977.87 |
| 2026-04-02 | 69 | $105.18 | $7,257.42 |
| 2026-03-23 | 7 | $96.38 | $674.66 |
| 2026-02-24 | 7 | $116.16 | $813.12 |
| 2026-02-09 | 125 | $148.51 | $18,563.75 |
| 2026-02-02 | 1,988 | $138.99 | $276,312.12 |
| 2026-01-16 | 228 | $136.16 | $31,044.48 |
| 2026-01-08 | 79 | $122.56 | $9,682.24 |
| 2025-12-30 | 1,257 | $124.42 | $156,395.94 |
| 2025-12-16 | 30 | $131.91 | $3,957.3 |
| 2025-12-08 | 6 | $130.24 | $781.44 |
| 2025-11-20 | 60 | $125.40 | $7,524 |
| 2025-11-18 | 142 | $126.58 | $17,974.36 |
| 2025-11-12 | 667 | $127.29 | $84,902.43 |
| 2025-11-04 | 200 | $123.61 | $24,722 |
| 2025-10-31 | 3,031 | $128.40 | $389,180.4 |
| 2025-10-07 | 5 | $138.45 | $692.25 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| ITW | 0.595 | 0.554 | Moderate |
| LOW | 0.585 | 0.545 | Moderate |
| ALLE | 0.578 | 0.714 | Moderate |
| HD | 0.575 | 0.522 | Moderate |
| PHM | 0.560 | 0.479 | Moderate |
| PKG | 0.556 | 0.543 | Moderate |
| POOL | 0.549 | 0.486 | Moderate |
| TOL | 0.537 | 0.453 | Moderate |
| NVR | 0.527 | 0.440 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare GPC to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.