Intuitive Surgical, Inc. (ISRG)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicISRG trades at 51.5x earnings, roughly in line with its sector average of 65.2x. Financial health metrics are strong: Piotroski 7/9, Altman Z 40.1 (above 3.0 safe zone threshold). DCF fair value of $257 implies 44% downside based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedIntuitive Surgical demonstrates robust fundamental quality, characterized by a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 and an Altman Z-Score of 42.9 that signals low bankruptcy risk alongside a Beneish M-Score of -2.47 indicating minimal earnings manipulation concerns. The DuPont decomposition reveals that the 15.9% ROE is primarily driven by exceptional operating efficiency rather than leverage, with a net margin of 28.4% and asset turnover of 0.49x outweighing an equity multiplier of only 1.14x. While this high-margin profile supports strong cash flow generation, the company's current return on invested capital stands at 12.6%, which sits below the implied growth trajectory required to sustain its valuation multiples.
Valuation metrics present a significant divergence between market pricing and discounted cash flow models. Trading at a P/E of 57.4x versus a sector average of 30.8x, the stock commands a substantial premium for its perceived growth options. However, a DCF analysis suggests a fair value of $257, implying a -44.2% downside from current levels based on an assumed ten-year free cash flow growth rate of 23.0%. This discrepancy indicates that the market is pricing in aggressive expansion scenarios that may not align with conservative intrinsic value calculations or recent performance relative to factor models.
Risk assessment highlights concerning signals regarding momentum and insider sentiment, which contrast sharply with the underlying profitability factors. The stock exhibits a negative Fama-French alpha of -21.78% annually and a Value Factor (HML) score of -0.161, reflecting its heavy growth tilt and underperformance relative to value benchmarks. Furthermore, recent insider activity shows $21 million in net selling over the last 90 days, suggesting internal stakeholders may be taking profits or reducing exposure despite the company's strong revenue growth of 20.5% year-over-year.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 21% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 8% | 10% | 12% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $313 | $231 | $183 |
| 3% | $365 | $257 | $198 |
| 4% | $444 | $292 | $217 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $402.30.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=10.0%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $257 (-43.9%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 6% below its 5-year average P/E of 61.0x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedIntuitive Surgical, Inc. currently trades at $438.10 within the healthcare sector, presenting a technical snapshot that warrants scrutiny regarding institutional positioning. The absence of specific moving average crossover data or volume metrics in the provided dataset prevents a definitive conclusion on whether larger market participants are actively accumulating or distributing shares. Without observing distinct price breaks relative to key support levels or surges in trading volume that typically accompany significant capital inflows, it remains unclear if institutions have established new long positions or are merely holding existing allocations. The current price action stands isolated from the broader context of trend confirmation usually derived from multiple timeframe analysis. Institutional behavior often manifests through sustained momentum relative to moving averages and correlated shifts in share turnover rates, neither of which can be verified here due to missing input variables. A robust bullish setup by major players would typically require a clear alignment where price action decisively breaches resistance zones accompanied by expanding volume, signaling aggressive buying intent. Conversely, signs of distribution might appear as price stagnation despite high liquidity or failed attempts to reclaim higher valuation levels. Since the available data lacks these critical components, any assertion regarding whether sophisticated investors are building positions for future upside or preparing to exit would be speculative rather than evidence-based at this specific moment in time.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like IHI or BOTZ, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell ISRG shares regardless of Intuitive Surgical, Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $24.3B of passive capital is structurally linked to ISRG through 8 tracked ETFs. This substantial passive exposure means that ETF inflows and outflows — not company fundamentals — can dominate daily volume on this stock.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Intuitive Surgical, Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Intuitive Surgical, Inc. (ISRG) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies Abbott Laboratories (ABT) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 3 ETFs with ISRG. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 31 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
ISRG Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 7 ISRG shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Intuitive Surgical, Inc. (ISRG) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 16.5% of the IHI (IHI) and 5.8% of the Global X Robotics & Artificial Intelligence ETF (BOTZ). Across 29 tracked ETFs, approximately 51M shares (14.5% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest ISRG Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 29 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
ISRG Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Intuitive Surgical, Inc. over the past year sits near $474.38 (10% of 252-day volume). The current price of $402.30 sits 15.2% below the POC — suggesting potential mean-reversion upside if institutional demand reasserts at this level.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
ISRG Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Intuitive Surgical, Inc. convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Intuitive Surgical, Inc. converts 69% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, an exceptional conversion rate indicating an asset-light business model with minimal capital reinvestment drag.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | 1,122 | $432.27 | $485,006.94 |
| 2026-05-13 | 1 | $431.87 | $431.87 |
| 2026-05-12 | 42 | $420.06 | $17,642.52 |
| 2026-05-08 | 386 | $453.49 | $175,047.14 |
| 2026-05-05 | 1 | $452.35 | $452.35 |
| 2026-05-04 | 100 | $457.78 | $45,778 |
| 2026-04-29 | 6 | $466.64 | $2,799.84 |
| 2026-04-27 | 423 | $482.22 | $203,979.06 |
| 2026-04-24 | 235 | $478.82 | $112,522.7 |
| 2026-04-20 | 100 | $469.21 | $46,921 |
| 2026-04-17 | 1 | $458.08 | $458.08 |
| 2026-04-15 | 3 | $467.22 | $1,401.66 |
| 2026-04-10 | 2,412 | $454.94 | $1.1M |
| 2026-04-06 | 43 | $452.07 | $19,439.01 |
| 2026-04-02 | 18 | $464.45 | $8,360.1 |
| 2026-03-25 | 36 | $471.91 | $16,988.76 |
| 2026-03-24 | 5 | $478.04 | $2,390.2 |
| 2026-03-23 | 1 | $477.97 | $477.97 |
| 2026-03-18 | 13,405 | $482.76 | $6.5M |
| 2026-03-17 | 37,886 | $483.46 | $18.3M |
| 2026-03-02 | 136 | $503.51 | $68,477.36 |
| 2026-02-26 | 220 | $506.17 | $111,357.4 |
| 2026-02-23 | 206 | $504.05 | $103,834.3 |
| 2026-02-20 | 16,664 | $499.53 | $8.3M |
| 2026-02-19 | 4 | $500.76 | $2,003.04 |
| 2026-02-13 | 21 | $478.60 | $10,050.6 |
| 2026-02-11 | 3,943 | $495.15 | $2.0M |
| 2026-02-10 | 2 | $492.84 | $985.68 |
| 2026-02-04 | 20 | $478.88 | $9,577.6 |
| 2026-02-02 | 52 | $504.22 | $26,219.44 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
SEC Comment Letters
SEC correspondence with the company regarding their filings. Comment letters often flag disclosure deficiencies, accounting concerns, or material omissions.
Source: SEC EDGAR correspondence. Comment letters are public records of SEC staff review of company filings.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| SYK | 0.469 | 0.394 | Moderate |
| TRMB | 0.453 | 0.390 | Moderate |
| AVY | 0.446 | 0.488 | Moderate |
| EWBC | 0.444 | 0.408 | Moderate |
| HLT | 0.441 | 0.374 | Moderate |
| AXP | 0.425 | 0.343 | Moderate |
| NXPI | 0.425 | 0.335 | Moderate |
| NL0009538784 | 0.423 | 0.330 | Moderate |
| MAR | 0.418 | 0.363 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare ISRG to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.