KLA Corporation (KLAC)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicKLAC trades at 62.0x earnings, roughly in line with its sector average of 60.0x. Financial health metrics are strong: Piotroski 8/9, Altman Z 17.1 (above 3.0 safe zone threshold). DCF fair value of $15 implies 93% downside based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economic profile reveals a capital allocation engine generating substantial value, evidenced by an ROIC of 32.6% significantly outpacing the WACC at 13.4%, creating a robust spread of +19.2%. This efficiency is underpinned by exceptional profitability rather than leverage or turnover; DuPont analysis shows that while equity multipliers stand at 3.42x, the primary drivers are superior margins and asset utilization, with net margins expanding to 33.4% from a gross margin of 60.9%. Integrity metrics further validate this quality, as the company maintains a near-perfect Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 alongside an Altman Z-Score of 12.3 and a negative Beneish M-Score of -2.27, indicating low earnings manipulation risk despite revenue growth accelerating to 23.9% year-over-year.
Valuation metrics present a divergence between current market pricing and intrinsic model estimates. The stock trades at a P/E of 44.2x, which sits slightly above the sector average of 42.2x, suggesting the market is pricing in continued high growth expectations. However, the DCF model implies a fair value of $150 with an upside calculation showing -89.8%, indicating that current prices may be significantly elevated relative to discounted cash flow projections based on assumed future performance. This tension exists alongside an implied free cash flow growth rate of 38.9% over ten years, which appears aggressive given the valuation premium already embedded in the multiple.
Risk factor analysis introduces complexity through Fama-French anomalies that contradict traditional profitability signals. While the stock exhibits a substantial annual alpha of 54.24%, suggesting strong momentum or specific factor exposure not captured by standard models, the Profitability Factor (RMW) registers at -0.541, labeling it as having weak relative profitability within this specific factor framework. The Value Factor remains neutral at -0.099, and insider activity over the last 90 days shows zero net flow, offering no directional signal from internal stakeholders to offset these quantitative discrepancies.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 24% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 11.2% | 13.2% | 15.2% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $18 | $14 | $12 |
| 3% | $19 | $15 | $12 |
| 4% | $22 | $17 | $13 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $212.75.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=13.3%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $15 (-92.8%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 58% below its 5-year average P/E of 147.3x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedKLA Corporation currently trades at $1888.38 within the technology sector, presenting a high-valuation scenario where price action becomes particularly sensitive to fundamental shifts. The absence of specific drawdown metrics or volatility indices in the provided dataset necessitates an analysis based on the inherent characteristics of such elevated price levels; historically, assets trading near multi-year highs often exhibit fragile momentum when disconnected from immediate earnings acceleration. Without data confirming a widening margin between revenue growth and share count expansion, the current trajectory relies heavily on continued sector-wide optimism rather than established structural resilience against market corrections. The technical setup suggests that while short-term upward pressure may persist due to prevailing tech-sector enthusiasm, any deceleration in fundamental performance could trigger disproportionate volatility given the asset's distance from historical support zones. Risk dynamics appear skewed toward potential sharp retracements if macroeconomic headwinds or sector-specific regulatory changes emerge, as high-priced technology equities frequently lack the deep liquidity buffers found at lower valuation multiples. Consequently, the momentum observed appears more situational than deeply entrenched in long-term value creation, meaning that subsequent price movements will likely be dictated by the interplay between investor risk appetite and incoming corporate guidance rather than organic technical patterns alone.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-18 | $0.2300 | +21.1% |
| 2026-02-17 | $0.1900 | 0.0% |
| 2025-11-17 | $0.1900 | 0.0% |
| 2025-08-18 | $0.1900 | 0.0% |
| 2025-05-19 | $0.1900 | +11.8% |
| 2025-02-24 | $0.1700 | 0.0% |
| 2024-11-18 | $0.1700 | +17.2% |
| 2024-08-15 | $0.1450 | 0.0% |
| 2024-05-14 | $0.1450 | 0.0% |
| 2024-02-15 | $0.1450 | 0.0% |
| 2023-11-14 | $0.1450 | +11.5% |
| 2023-08-14 | $0.1300 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like SMH or SOXX, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell KLAC shares regardless of KLA Corporation's individual fundamentals. We estimate $48.5B of passive capital is structurally linked to KLAC through 8 tracked ETFs. This substantial passive exposure means that ETF inflows and outflows — not company fundamentals — can dominate daily volume on this stock.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in KLA Corporation to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If KLA Corporation (KLAC) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies NVIDIA Corp (NVDA) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 2 ETFs with KLAC. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 36 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
KLAC Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 9 KLAC shares, reducing daily market volatility.
KLA Corporation (KLAC) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 4.7% of the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) and 4.4% of the iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX). Across 33 tracked ETFs, approximately 147M shares (11.3% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest KLAC Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 33 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
KLAC Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for KLA Corporation over the past year sits near $260.25 (60% of 252-day volume). The current price of $212.75 sits 18.3% below the POC — suggesting potential mean-reversion upside if institutional demand reasserts at this level. The highly concentrated volume profile (60% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
KLAC Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does KLA Corporation convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
KLA Corporation converts 70% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, an exceptional conversion rate indicating an asset-light business model with minimal capital reinvestment drag. The positive ROIC-WACC spread of 19.4% confirms that reinvested capital creates shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-10 | 30,699 | $2139.37 | $65.7M |
| 2026-06-09 | 992 | $2108.06 | $2.1M |
| 2026-06-04 | 2,243 | $2125.11 | $4.8M |
| 2026-05-28 | 7 | $1957.19 | $13,700.33 |
| 2026-05-21 | 40 | $1829.47 | $73,178.8 |
| 2026-05-20 | 155 | $1740.58 | $269,789.9 |
| 2026-05-15 | 2,077 | $1892.94 | $3.9M |
| 2026-05-06 | 24 | $1732.90 | $41,589.6 |
| 2026-05-01 | 469 | $1750.35 | $820,914.15 |
| 2026-04-27 | 7,915 | $1935.00 | $15.3M |
| 2026-04-24 | 2 | $1815.43 | $3,630.86 |
| 2026-04-22 | 2 | $1785.37 | $3,570.74 |
| 2026-04-17 | 56 | $1734.85 | $97,151.6 |
| 2026-04-15 | 3 | $1795.91 | $5,387.73 |
| 2026-04-07 | 822 | $1540.06 | $1.3M |
| 2026-04-06 | 2,010 | $1516.84 | $3.0M |
| 2026-03-31 | 100 | $1382.58 | $138,258 |
| 2026-03-27 | 312 | $1451.13 | $452,752.56 |
| 2026-03-25 | 13 | $1566.19 | $20,360.47 |
| 2026-03-24 | 18,820 | $1511.43 | $28.4M |
| 2026-03-13 | 28,236 | $1409.57 | $39.8M |
| 2026-03-04 | 414 | $1441.35 | $596,718.9 |
| 2026-03-03 | 3 | $1534.95 | $4,604.85 |
| 2026-03-02 | 1,962 | $1524.55 | $3.0M |
| 2026-02-27 | 7,934 | $1524.31 | $12.1M |
| 2026-02-23 | 523 | $1496.00 | $782,408 |
| 2026-02-20 | 510 | $1469.90 | $749,649 |
| 2026-02-19 | 414 | $1480.30 | $612,844.2 |
| 2026-02-09 | 5 | $1442.95 | $7,214.75 |
| 2026-01-30 | 1,697 | $1684.71 | $2.9M |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
SEC Comment Letters
SEC correspondence with the company regarding their filings. Comment letters often flag disclosure deficiencies, accounting concerns, or material omissions.
Source: SEC EDGAR correspondence. Comment letters are public records of SEC staff review of company filings.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| GVMXX | NaN | NaN | |
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| MGMXX | NaN | NaN | |
| ASML | 0.476 | 0.448 | Moderate |
| USN070592100 | 0.476 | 0.448 | Moderate |
| LRCX | 0.463 | 0.414 | Moderate |
| AMAT | 0.434 | 0.383 | Moderate |
| MPWR | 0.389 | 0.366 | Moderate |
| MU | 0.371 | 0.350 | Moderate |
| TSM | 0.359 | 0.332 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare KLAC to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-07-17.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.