Altria Group, Inc. (MO)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicAt 14.5x earnings — a 55% discount to the sector average of 32.6x — MO is in the lower valuation range. Financial health is average: Piotroski 6/9, Altman Z 4.6. DCF fair value of $76 suggests 13% upside based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe company exhibits exceptional capital allocation efficiency, generating a robust ROIC-WACC spread of 25.3% driven by industry-leading net margins of 34.5% and gross margins exceeding 70%. However, the DuPont decomposition reveals an anomalous negative ROE of -201.3%, entirely attributable to high financial leverage (Equity Multiplier of -10.14x) rather than operational weakness or declining returns on assets. This capital structure creates a precarious balance sheet profile despite strong profitability metrics; while the Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 and Beneish M-Score of -2.36 suggest fundamental stability and low earnings manipulation risk, an Altman Z-Score of 4.6 indicates elevated insolvency probability relative to peers. The negative equity multiplier implies significant debt usage that amplifies both returns and potential volatility in the event of margin compression or interest rate shocks.
Valuation metrics present a divergence between market pricing and intrinsic value models. Trading at 16.0x earnings, the stock commands a substantial discount to its sector average of 31.2x, suggesting the market is penalizing the balance sheet risks rather than acknowledging operational cash flow generation. A DCF analysis implies fair value at $82 with 25% upside potential, assuming only modest future free cash flow growth of 1.3% over a decade. This valuation gap reflects investor skepticism regarding sustainability amidst revenue contraction of -1.5%, yet the low multiple may also price in further downside from leverage risks rather than capturing current earnings power.
Risk factors are illuminated by distinct factor tilts and insider activity, complicating the investment thesis. The stock demonstrates strong exposure to value (HML 0.322) and profitability (RMW 0.109) factors with a Fama-French alpha of 19.50%, indicating historical outperformance independent of market beta. Conversely, net insider selling totaling $1.89 million over the last ninety days introduces a counterweight to the attractive valuation spread. While fundamental quality and factor exposures suggest resilience, the combination of high leverage penalties in pricing and recent executive divestment requires careful assessment of downside protection before considering entry.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of -1% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 6% | 7.3% | 9.3% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $85 | $62 | $43 |
| 3% | $111 | $76 | $49 |
| 4% | $164 | $97 | $58 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $69.24.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=7.3%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $76 (+13.0%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 33% below its 5-year average P/E of 24.3x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedAltria Group, Inc. is currently trading at $67.38 within the Consumer Defensive sector, a positioning that often attracts capital from institutions seeking stability amidst market volatility. The absence of specific moving average crossover data or volume trend metrics in the provided dataset prevents a definitive conclusion regarding whether larger players are accumulating shares through aggressive buying or distributing positions via selling pressure. Without observing how price action interacts with key support and resistance levels defined by short-term versus long-term averages, it remains unclear if institutional sentiment leans toward further upside potential or corrective downward movement. Institutional behavior is frequently inferred from the relationship between price trends and trading volume; however, since current volume figures are unavailable, any assessment of whether major entities are reinforcing their holdings or reducing exposure relies solely on speculation rather than empirical evidence. The stock's location in a defensive sector suggests that institutional portfolios may utilize it as a hedge during uncertain economic periods, yet without concrete data on order flow or capital inflows, the precise nature of this positioning cannot be confirmed. Consequently, while the current price point establishes a baseline for valuation analysis, the lack of granular technical indicators leaves the strategic intent of large market participants ambiguous. Observers must await further confirmation through emerging volume patterns and relative strength against benchmarks before forming a robust view on whether sophisticated investors are aggressively building positions or systematically exiting them at these levels.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-25 | $1.0600 | 0.0% |
| 2025-12-26 | $1.0600 | 0.0% |
| 2025-09-15 | $1.0600 | +3.9% |
| 2025-06-16 | $1.0200 | 0.0% |
| 2025-03-25 | $1.0200 | 0.0% |
| 2024-12-26 | $1.0200 | 0.0% |
| 2024-09-16 | $1.0200 | +4.1% |
| 2024-06-14 | $0.9800 | 0.0% |
| 2024-03-22 | $0.9800 | 0.0% |
| 2023-12-20 | $0.9800 | 0.0% |
| 2023-09-14 | $0.9800 | +4.3% |
| 2023-06-14 | $0.9400 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
10-K Risk Factor Expansion
Word count of Item 1A (Risk Factors) across annual filings. Rising counts often signal new regulatory, competitive, or operational risks.
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like XLP or IYK, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell MO shares regardless of Altria Group, Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $17.7B of passive capital is structurally linked to MO through 8 tracked ETFs. This substantial passive exposure means that ETF inflows and outflows — not company fundamentals — can dominate daily volume on this stock.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Altria Group, Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Altria Group, Inc. (MO) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies PepsiCo Inc (PEP) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 3 ETFs with MO. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 35 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
MO Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 6 MO shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Altria Group, Inc. (MO) exerts notable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 4.9% of the State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLP) and 4.8% of the IYK (IYK). Across 33 tracked ETFs, approximately 267M shares (16.0% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest MO Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 33 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
MO Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Altria Group, Inc. over the past year sits near $57.19 (18% of 252-day volume). The current price of $69.24 trades 21.1% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target. The highly concentrated volume profile (18% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
MO Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Altria Group, Inc. convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Altria Group, Inc. converts 84% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, an exceptional conversion rate indicating an asset-light business model with minimal capital reinvestment drag. The positive ROIC-WACC spread of 25.0% confirms that reinvested capital creates shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-12 | 2,339 | $68.61 | $160,478.79 |
| 2026-05-11 | 14,650 | $68.12 | $997,958 |
| 2026-05-06 | 8 | $72.79 | $582.32 |
| 2026-05-05 | 59,606 | $73.41 | $4.4M |
| 2026-05-04 | 3,187 | $74.55 | $237,590.85 |
| 2026-05-01 | 2,827 | $72.65 | $205,381.55 |
| 2026-04-30 | 940 | $68.20 | $64,108 |
| 2026-04-27 | 3,493 | $66.88 | $233,611.84 |
| 2026-04-22 | 12 | $64.65 | $775.8 |
| 2026-04-15 | 12 | $65.62 | $787.44 |
| 2026-04-10 | 34 | $67.46 | $2,293.64 |
| 2026-04-09 | 47 | $66.80 | $3,139.6 |
| 2026-04-07 | 301 | $66.55 | $20,031.55 |
| 2026-04-06 | 5,873 | $65.76 | $386,208.48 |
| 2026-04-02 | 3,396 | $65.48 | $222,370.08 |
| 2026-03-30 | 6,879 | $66.48 | $457,315.92 |
| 2026-03-25 | 167 | $64.32 | $10,741.44 |
| 2026-03-24 | 2 | $64.39 | $128.78 |
| 2026-03-23 | 1,158 | $64.47 | $74,656.26 |
| 2026-03-13 | 33 | $67.72 | $2,234.76 |
| 2026-03-10 | 273,694 | $67.04 | $18.3M |
| 2026-03-02 | 1,000 | $69.04 | $69,040 |
| 2026-02-23 | 55,702 | $67.57 | $3.8M |
| 2026-02-20 | 86,537 | $67.99 | $5.9M |
| 2026-02-19 | 1,082 | $66.77 | $72,245.14 |
| 2026-02-18 | 1,940 | $66.54 | $129,087.6 |
| 2026-02-17 | 14,499 | $67.25 | $975,057.75 |
| 2026-02-12 | 19,284 | $65.92 | $1.3M |
| 2026-02-11 | 996 | $64.40 | $64,142.4 |
| 2026-02-10 | 3,096 | $64.40 | $199,382.4 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
SEC Comment Letters
SEC correspondence with the company regarding their filings. Comment letters often flag disclosure deficiencies, accounting concerns, or material omissions.
Source: SEC EDGAR correspondence. Comment letters are public records of SEC staff review of company filings.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| PM | 0.509 | 0.519 | Moderate |
| WEC | 0.386 | 0.355 | Moderate |
| PNW | 0.376 | 0.386 | Moderate |
| CI | 0.371 | 0.403 | Moderate |
| CL | 0.367 | 0.373 | Moderate |
| KO | 0.366 | 0.346 | Moderate |
| DUK | 0.362 | 0.243 | Moderate |
| LNT | 0.358 | 0.294 | Moderate |
| VZ | 0.352 | 0.325 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare MO to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.