Philip Morris International Inc. (PM)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicPM trades at 25.0x earnings, roughly in line with its sector average of 32.6x. Financial health metrics are strong: Piotroski 8/9, Altman Z 4.0 (above 3.0 safe zone threshold). DCF fair value of $114 implies 30% downside based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedPhilip Morris International exhibits robust capital efficiency, generating a 27.9% ROIC against a 6.9% WACC to yield an attractive +21.1% spread indicative of strong value creation potential. However, the DuPont decomposition reveals that this return is driven almost entirely by high leverage rather than operational momentum; while net margins sit at 27.9% and asset turnover remains steady at 0.59x, the equity multiplier has expanded to -8.62x, inflating ROE to a distorted -141.4%. Despite this structural distortion in return-on-equity metrics, fundamental health checks remain pristine: the company commands an exceptional Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 and maintains a safe Altman Z-Score of 4.0 alongside a negative Beneish M-Score of -2.36, signaling low earnings manipulation risk and strong solvency.
Valuation metrics suggest the market is pricing in significantly higher growth than current fundamentals support. Trading at 21.8x forward earnings, the stock trades well below its sector average of 31.2x yet still commands a premium relative to its own implied trajectory. A DCF analysis incorporating an assumed 6.8% ten-year free cash flow growth rate establishes a fair value of $132, implying approximately -20.1% downside from current levels. This valuation disconnect persists despite the company's ability to sustain double-digit profitability and consistent revenue expansion of 7.3% year-over-year, suggesting investors are discounting future cash flows more aggressively than historical performance would warrant.
Risk assessment highlights a divergence between factor exposure and insider sentiment. The stock displays strong momentum characteristics with an annual Fama-French alpha of 18.38%, yet it carries a distinct value tilt (HML: 0.273) while showing neutral profitability factor alignment (RMW: -0.051). This factor profile contrasts sharply with recent insider activity, which recorded $28.8 million in net selling over the last ninety days. The combination of substantial executive offloading and a valuation gap below intrinsic value estimates creates an environment where price discovery may be influenced by supply-side constraints rather than fundamental re-rating.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 7% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 6% | 7.4% | 9.4% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $132 | $93 | $62 |
| 3% | $176 | $114 | $72 |
| 4% | $263 | $148 | $85 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $173.66.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=7.4%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $114 (-29.9%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 23% below its 5-year average P/E of 28.9x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedThe current price of PM is below its 50-day simple moving average but above the 200-day simple moving average, suggesting a short-term downtrend within an overall stable longer-term trend. With the RSI at 34.8, which falls in oversold territory, this indicates potential near-term downward momentum may be waning or could reverse.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
⚠️ Dividend consumes >80% of FCF — sustainability risk.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-19 | $1.4700 | 0.0% |
| 2025-12-26 | $1.4700 | 0.0% |
| 2025-10-03 | $1.4700 | +8.9% |
| 2025-06-27 | $1.3500 | 0.0% |
| 2025-03-20 | $1.3500 | 0.0% |
| 2024-12-26 | $1.3500 | 0.0% |
| 2024-09-26 | $1.3500 | +3.8% |
| 2024-06-21 | $1.3000 | 0.0% |
| 2024-03-20 | $1.3000 | 0.0% |
| 2023-12-20 | $1.3000 | 0.0% |
| 2023-09-26 | $1.3000 | +2.4% |
| 2023-06-22 | $1.2700 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
10-K Risk Factor Expansion
Word count of Item 1A (Risk Factors) across annual filings. Rising counts often signal new regulatory, competitive, or operational risks.
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like IYK or XLP, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell PM shares regardless of Philip Morris International Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $29.8B of passive capital is structurally linked to PM through 8 tracked ETFs. This substantial passive exposure means that ETF inflows and outflows — not company fundamentals — can dominate daily volume on this stock.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Philip Morris International Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Philip Morris International Inc. (PM) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies Walmart Inc. (WMT) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with PM. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 31 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
PM Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 9 PM shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Philip Morris International Inc. (PM) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 10.2% of the IYK (IYK) and 6.2% of the State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLP). Across 29 tracked ETFs, approximately 181M shares (11.6% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest PM Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 29 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
PM Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Philip Morris International Inc. over the past year sits near $160.41 (12% of 252-day volume). The current price of $173.66 trades 8.3% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target. The highly concentrated volume profile (12% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
PM Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Philip Morris International Inc. convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Philip Morris International Inc. converts 61% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, an exceptional conversion rate indicating an asset-light business model with minimal capital reinvestment drag. The positive ROIC-WACC spread of 20.5% confirms that reinvested capital creates shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | 14,223 | $187.91 | $2.7M |
| 2026-05-13 | 2,451 | $186.93 | $458,165.43 |
| 2026-05-12 | 2,021 | $182.11 | $368,044.31 |
| 2026-05-11 | 633 | $170.99 | $108,236.67 |
| 2026-05-07 | 718 | $170.53 | $122,440.54 |
| 2026-05-06 | 1,188 | $169.46 | $201,318.48 |
| 2026-05-05 | 951 | $169.19 | $160,899.69 |
| 2026-05-04 | 88 | $166.38 | $14,641.44 |
| 2026-05-01 | 3,137 | $165.07 | $517,824.59 |
| 2026-04-29 | 5,007 | $165.89 | $830,611.23 |
| 2026-04-28 | 736 | $160.90 | $118,422.4 |
| 2026-04-27 | 986 | $164.20 | $161,901.2 |
| 2026-04-23 | 2,013 | $163.95 | $330,031.35 |
| 2026-04-16 | 1,804 | $157.19 | $283,570.76 |
| 2026-04-15 | 2,299 | $159.47 | $366,621.53 |
| 2026-04-10 | 806 | $161.25 | $129,967.5 |
| 2026-04-09 | 1,406 | $160.94 | $226,281.64 |
| 2026-04-08 | 2,123 | $157.49 | $334,351.27 |
| 2026-04-07 | 2,232 | $160.34 | $357,878.88 |
| 2026-04-06 | 1,277 | $158.10 | $201,893.7 |
| 2026-04-01 | 102 | $165.34 | $16,864.68 |
| 2026-03-30 | 29,616 | $163.54 | $4.8M |
| 2026-03-27 | 2,007 | $162.49 | $326,117.43 |
| 2026-03-26 | 871 | $165.50 | $144,150.5 |
| 2026-03-25 | 155 | $163.87 | $25,399.85 |
| 2026-03-24 | 3,030 | $163.24 | $494,617.2 |
| 2026-03-23 | 3,044 | $163.11 | $496,506.84 |
| 2026-03-20 | 2,700 | $163.37 | $441,099 |
| 2026-03-17 | 3,916 | $174.78 | $684,438.48 |
| 2026-03-13 | 971 | $172.00 | $167,012 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
SEC Comment Letters
SEC correspondence with the company regarding their filings. Comment letters often flag disclosure deficiencies, accounting concerns, or material omissions.
Source: SEC EDGAR correspondence. Comment letters are public records of SEC staff review of company filings.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| MO | 0.509 | 0.519 | Moderate |
| CL | 0.332 | 0.454 | Moderate |
| MCD | 0.331 | 0.396 | Moderate |
| WM | 0.308 | 0.249 | Moderate |
| KO | 0.303 | 0.253 | Moderate |
| ATO | 0.293 | 0.231 | Low correlation |
| RSG | 0.291 | 0.231 | Low correlation |
| WMT | 0.283 | 0.338 | Low correlation |
| AEE | 0.282 | 0.334 | Low correlation |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare PM to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.