NIKE, Inc. (NKE)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicNKE trades at 30.4x earnings, roughly in line with its sector average of 35.0x. Financial health is average: Piotroski 4/9, Altman Z 3.6. DCF fair value of $21 implies 52% downside based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics of the business reveal a tension between historical profitability and current capital efficiency. While the DuPont decomposition highlights robust leverage (2.77x) driving an ROE of 24.4%, this is underpinned by a negative spread where returns on invested capital (11.2%) fall short of the weighted average cost of capital (11.9%), eroding long-term value creation potential. This deterioration aligns with significant downside signals in financial stability metrics: a declining Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, revenue contraction of -9.8% year-over-year, and a negative annualized Fama-French alpha of -32.20%. Conversely, the Altman Z-Score of 4.1 and Beneish M-Score of -2.39 suggest that while bankruptcy risk is low, earnings quality remains consistent with historical patterns rather than indicating manipulation.
Valuation metrics indicate a substantial divergence between current market pricing and intrinsic value models. The stock trades at a P/E multiple of 29.1x, which sits significantly below the sector average of 57.0x but implies aggressive growth expectations given the DCF fair value estimate of $21 represents a -60.8% discount to current levels based on an assumed ten-year free cash flow growth rate of 13.5%. This discrepancy suggests the market is currently pricing in a much higher terminal growth trajectory than what is required for the model's valuation floor, creating a wide gap between implied and fundamental worth that may not be supported by recent revenue headwinds or negative profitability factor adjustments relative to its value tilt.
Risk factors further complicate the investment thesis through mixed signals on insider sentiment and style exposure. Insider flow over the past 90 days shows $565,021 in net selling, a potential indicator of management caution amidst shrinking revenues. Although the stock exhibits strong profitability characteristics (RMW factor of 1.231), its negative value loading (-0.242) and substantial underperformance relative to risk-free benchmarks underscore the challenges facing this growth-oriented consumer cyclical name as it navigates a period of declining top-line momentum.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of -10% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 9.9% | 11.9% | 13.9% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $24 | $19 | $16 |
| 3% | $27 | $21 | $17 |
| 4% | $30 | $23 | $18 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $43.73.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=11.9%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $21 (-51.6%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 21% above its 5-year average P/E of 23.1x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedNike's stock is currently trading below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, indicating a technical downtrend. The RSI at 26.9 suggests that the near-term momentum may be weak but also implies potential for some oversold conditions to reverse if market sentiment improves.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-01 | $0.4100 | 0.0% |
| 2026-03-02 | $0.4100 | 0.0% |
| 2025-12-01 | $0.4100 | +2.5% |
| 2025-09-02 | $0.4000 | 0.0% |
| 2025-06-02 | $0.4000 | 0.0% |
| 2025-03-03 | $0.4000 | 0.0% |
| 2024-12-02 | $0.4000 | +8.1% |
| 2024-09-03 | $0.3700 | 0.0% |
| 2024-06-03 | $0.3700 | 0.0% |
| 2024-03-01 | $0.3700 | 0.0% |
| 2023-12-01 | $0.3700 | +8.8% |
| 2023-09-01 | $0.3400 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like MOAT or SDY, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell NKE shares regardless of NIKE, Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $7.5B of passive capital is structurally linked to NKE through 8 tracked ETFs. This substantial passive exposure means that ETF inflows and outflows — not company fundamentals — can dominate daily volume on this stock.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in NIKE, Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If NIKE, Inc. (NKE) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies AMAZON.COM INC (AMZN) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with NKE. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 33 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
NKE Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 7 NKE shares, reducing daily market volatility.
NIKE, Inc. (NKE) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 2.3% of the MOAT (MOAT) and 1.3% of the SDY (SDY). Across 33 tracked ETFs, approximately 161M shares (13.4% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest NKE Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 33 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
NKE Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for NIKE, Inc. over the past year sits near $44.16 (10% of 252-day volume). The current price of $43.73 sits 1.0% below the POC — suggesting potential mean-reversion upside if institutional demand reasserts at this level.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
NKE Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does NIKE, Inc. convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
NIKE, Inc. converts 72% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, an exceptional conversion rate indicating an asset-light business model with minimal capital reinvestment drag. However, the ROIC-WACC spread is negative (-0.7%), suggesting reinvested capital is destroying shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-06 | 250 | $43.06 | $10,765 |
| 2026-04-30 | 14,663 | $44.39 | $650,890.57 |
| 2026-04-29 | 34 | $45.03 | $1,531.02 |
| 2026-04-24 | 80,914 | $44.78 | $3.6M |
| 2026-04-20 | 285,408 | $46.03 | $13.1M |
| 2026-04-17 | 500 | $45.70 | $22,850 |
| 2026-04-14 | 1,200 | $42.91 | $51,492 |
| 2026-04-08 | 500 | $42.69 | $21,345 |
| 2026-04-07 | 3,711 | $44.03 | $163,395.33 |
| 2026-04-06 | 902 | $44.19 | $39,859.38 |
| 2026-04-02 | 1,101,666 | $44.63 | $49.2M |
| 2026-03-31 | 62,174 | $51.24 | $3.2M |
| 2026-03-25 | 74,390 | $53.49 | $4.0M |
| 2026-03-23 | 183 | $52.37 | $9,583.71 |
| 2026-03-19 | 39 | $53.47 | $2,085.33 |
| 2026-03-18 | 12,378 | $55.12 | $682,275.36 |
| 2026-03-13 | 26,051 | $54.13 | $1.4M |
| 2026-03-12 | 300 | $55.70 | $16,710 |
| 2026-03-09 | 1,044 | $57.01 | $59,518.44 |
| 2026-03-06 | 673 | $58.02 | $39,047.46 |
| 2026-03-05 | 29,541 | $58.64 | $1.7M |
| 2026-02-25 | 110,011 | $64.09 | $7.1M |
| 2026-02-23 | 645 | $65.40 | $42,183 |
| 2026-02-20 | 244 | $65.61 | $16,008.84 |
| 2026-02-18 | 16,100 | $64.82 | $1.0M |
| 2026-02-17 | 8,530 | $63.13 | $538,498.9 |
| 2026-02-12 | 67 | $62.35 | $4,177.45 |
| 2026-02-11 | 1,197,918 | $63.04 | $75.5M |
| 2026-02-09 | 2,847 | $63.92 | $181,980.24 |
| 2026-02-06 | 32,241 | $62.70 | $2.0M |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| APTV | 0.526 | 0.516 | Moderate |
| KBH | 0.491 | 0.512 | Moderate |
| SWK | 0.465 | 0.426 | Moderate |
| MAS | 0.454 | 0.416 | Moderate |
| TGT | 0.449 | 0.357 | Moderate |
| MTH | 0.448 | 0.424 | Moderate |
| TMHC | 0.443 | 0.430 | Moderate |
| PHM | 0.434 | 0.424 | Moderate |
| BLDR | 0.425 | 0.408 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare NKE to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.