WHD (WHD)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicFinancial health is average: Piotroski 5/9, Altman Z 7.2. DCF fair value of $79 implies 48% upside from current prices based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe capital allocation efficiency for WHD presents a structural challenge, evidenced by an ROIC-WACC spread of -0.7%, indicating that current returns on invested capital fail to cover the cost of equity and debt financing. Despite this compression in value creation drivers, profitability metrics remain robust with net margins at 15.4% supported by strong gross margins of 37.0%. The DuPont decomposition suggests margin expansion is a primary engine for ROE rather than turnover or leverage, yet revenue contraction of -4.5% YoY signals potential headwinds in top-line scalability that may constrain future margin sustainability. Credit risk appears manageable given an Altman Z-Score of 7.2 and a low Beneish M-Score of -2.87, while the Piotroski F-Score of 5/9 reflects moderate financial strength but lacks the momentum characteristics of high-quality compounders.
Valuation metrics suggest a divergence between historical norms and current pricing power, with the stock trading at a P/E multiple of 21.9x compared to its five-year average of 19.7x, representing a premium valuation environment despite recent revenue declines. A DCF analysis implies significant upside potential relative to intrinsic value, projecting fair value at $79 and suggesting an implied free cash flow growth rate of 9.5% over the next decade. This discrepancy between current market pricing and model-derived fair value indicates that investors may be discounting future cash flows more aggressively than long-term fundamentals justify, assuming the margin profile can withstand further revenue erosion without eroding capital efficiency further.
The risk-reward profile hinges on whether management can reverse the negative revenue trajectory while maintaining its superior gross margins to restore positive ROIC-WACC spreads. While fundamental quality scores like the Altman Z-Score mitigate immediate distress risks, the combination of declining revenues and sub-par capital returns creates uncertainty around the sustainability of current valuation premiums. The market appears willing to price in a 9.5% growth trajectory despite recent contraction, suggesting that any failure to execute on revenue recovery could force a re-rating toward historical mean multiples.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of -4% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 10.8% | 12.8% | 14.8% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $92 | $73 | $61 |
| 3% | $101 | $79 | $64 |
| 4% | $113 | $86 | $69 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $60.09.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=12.8%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $79 (+48.4%). Not investment advice.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
Balance Sheet Health
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-01 | $0.1400 | 0.0% |
| 2026-03-02 | $0.1400 | 0.0% |
| 2025-12-01 | $0.1400 | 0.0% |
| 2025-08-29 | $0.1400 | +7.7% |
| 2025-06-02 | $0.1300 | 0.0% |
| 2025-03-03 | $0.1300 | 0.0% |
| 2024-12-02 | $0.1300 | 0.0% |
| 2024-08-26 | $0.1300 | +8.3% |
| 2024-05-24 | $0.1200 | 0.0% |
| 2024-02-23 | $0.1200 | 0.0% |
| 2023-11-24 | $0.1200 | 0.0% |
| 2023-08-25 | $0.1200 | +9.1% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like XES or SLYG, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell WHD shares regardless of WHD's individual fundamentals. We estimate $160M of passive capital is structurally linked to WHD through 8 tracked ETFs. Passive flows have a limited but growing influence on WHD's daily trading dynamics.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in WHD to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If WHD (WHD) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with WHD. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 8 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
WHD Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 22 WHD shares, reducing daily market volatility.
WHD (WHD) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 4.5% of the XES (XES) and 0.3% of the SLYG (SLYG). Across 9 tracked ETFs, approximately 3M shares (4.5% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. As passive ownership grows, index inclusion changes may increasingly drive price discovery.
ETFs with Highest WHD Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 9 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
WHD Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for WHD over the past year sits near $46.28 (10% of 252-day volume). The current price of $60.09 trades 29.8% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
WHD Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does WHD convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
WHD converts 67% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, an exceptional conversion rate indicating an asset-light business model with minimal capital reinvestment drag. However, the ROIC-WACC spread is negative (-0.7%), suggesting reinvested capital is destroying shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-13 | 282 | $57.23 | $16,138.86 |
| 2026-05-06 | 97 | $54.67 | $5,302.99 |
| 2026-05-01 | 4,274 | $55.72 | $238,147.28 |
| 2026-04-27 | 43 | $56.78 | $2,441.54 |
| 2026-04-20 | 16 | $52.68 | $842.88 |
| 2026-04-16 | 343 | $53.27 | $18,271.61 |
| 2026-04-15 | 1 | $52.74 | $52.74 |
| 2026-04-13 | 34,535 | $54.34 | $1.9M |
| 2026-04-07 | 46 | $49.75 | $2,288.5 |
| 2026-04-06 | 186 | $47.79 | $8,888.94 |
| 2026-04-02 | 541 | $46.97 | $25,410.77 |
| 2026-04-01 | 1,010 | $47.37 | $47,843.7 |
| 2026-03-27 | 453 | $48.81 | $22,110.93 |
| 2026-03-23 | 51 | $45.58 | $2,324.58 |
| 2026-03-19 | 47 | $46.26 | $2,174.22 |
| 2026-03-16 | 135 | $46.36 | $6,258.6 |
| 2026-03-13 | 11,300 | $46.00 | $519,800 |
| 2026-03-10 | 16 | $51.70 | $827.2 |
| 2026-02-27 | 38 | $51.56 | $1,959.28 |
| 2026-02-26 | 10 | $58.00 | $580 |
| 2026-02-20 | 2,356 | $58.76 | $138,438.56 |
| 2026-02-19 | 50 | $57.75 | $2,887.5 |
| 2026-02-13 | 70 | $57.05 | $3,993.5 |
| 2026-02-04 | 277 | $57.30 | $15,872.1 |
| 2026-01-30 | 337 | $55.88 | $18,831.56 |
| 2026-01-26 | 23 | $53.47 | $1,229.81 |
| 2026-01-16 | 12 | $52.56 | $630.72 |
| 2026-01-07 | 173 | $49.93 | $8,637.89 |
| 2025-12-19 | 343 | $44.49 | $15,260.07 |
| 2025-12-18 | 2 | $44.44 | $88.88 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| NOV | 0.679 | 0.594 | Moderate |
| WFRD | 0.669 | 0.579 | Moderate |
| SLB | 0.627 | 0.521 | Moderate |
| PTEN | 0.604 | 0.431 | Moderate |
| HP | 0.602 | 0.544 | Moderate |
| HAL | 0.566 | 0.438 | Moderate |
| OII | 0.552 | 0.371 | Moderate |
| NE | 0.550 | 0.418 | Moderate |
| SDRL | 0.548 | 0.478 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare WHD to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.