West Pharmaceutical Services, Inc. (WST)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicAt 43.1x earnings — a 34% discount to the sector average of 65.2x — WST is in the lower valuation range. Financial health is average: Piotroski 6/9, Altman Z 13.1. DCF fair value of $105 implies 60% downside based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedWest Pharmaceutical Services demonstrates a capital allocation profile where returns on invested capital marginally exceed the cost of equity, generating a narrow 1.2% spread that suggests limited excess value creation relative to financing costs. The DuPont decomposition reveals that this 15.5% ROE is primarily driven by robust net margins at 16.1%, supported by moderate asset turnover and leverage rather than aggressive financial engineering. Fundamental integrity metrics reinforce stability, with a high Altman Z-Score of 12.9 indicating low bankruptcy risk, a negative Beneish M-Score of -2.79 signaling minimal earnings manipulation concerns, and a solid Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 reflecting consistent operational strength alongside modest revenue growth of 6.2%.
Valuation metrics present a divergence between current market pricing and discounted cash flow models; the stock trades at a P/E multiple of 37.6x, which is only marginally elevated above the sector average of 36.8x despite an implied ten-year free cash flow growth rate of 20.4%. However, DCF analysis suggests a significant discrepancy, positioning fair value at $103 and implying substantial downside potential relative to current levels if long-term growth assumptions hold true. This valuation gap indicates the market may be pricing in optimistic growth trajectories that exceed fundamental earnings power or carry elevated risk premiums not yet reflected in the discount rate.
Risk-adjusted performance data further complicates the investment case, as the stock has exhibited a negative Fama-French alpha of -10.31% annually and underperformed on profitability factors (RMW) with an annual score of 0.046. While insider flow remains neutral over the last ninety days, suggesting no immediate private information-driven shifts in sentiment, the combination of narrow ROIC spreads, negative risk-adjusted returns, and a DCF-implied discount creates a challenging risk-reward profile for new capital deployment based strictly on provided quantitative signals.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 6% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 9.8% | 11.8% | 13.8% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $122 | $98 | $82 |
| 3% | $135 | $105 | $87 |
| 4% | $153 | $115 | $92 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $312.17.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=11.8%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $105 (-59.5%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 23% below its 5-year average P/E of 48.9x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-29 | $0.2200 | 0.0% |
| 2026-01-28 | $0.2200 | 0.0% |
| 2025-11-12 | $0.2200 | +4.8% |
| 2025-07-30 | $0.2100 | 0.0% |
| 2025-04-30 | $0.2100 | 0.0% |
| 2025-02-07 | $0.2100 | 0.0% |
| 2024-11-13 | $0.2100 | +5.0% |
| 2024-07-31 | $0.2000 | 0.0% |
| 2024-04-23 | $0.2000 | 0.0% |
| 2024-01-30 | $0.2000 | 0.0% |
| 2023-11-07 | $0.2000 | +5.3% |
| 2023-07-25 | $0.1900 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like NOBL or MOAT, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell WST shares regardless of West Pharmaceutical Services, Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $3.5B of passive capital is structurally linked to WST through 8 tracked ETFs. Index rebalances and ETF creation/redemption cycles can create noticeable volume spikes unrelated to company news.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in West Pharmaceutical Services, Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If West Pharmaceutical Services, Inc. (WST) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies ELI LILLY + CO (LLY) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with WST. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 30 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
WST Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 5 WST shares, reducing daily market volatility.
West Pharmaceutical Services, Inc. (WST) exerts notable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 1.4% of the ProShares S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats ETF (NOBL) and 1.4% of the MOAT (MOAT). Across 30 tracked ETFs, approximately 13M shares (18.4% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest WST Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 30 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
WST Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for West Pharmaceutical Services, Inc. over the past year sits near $246.19 (13% of 252-day volume). The current price of $312.17 trades 26.8% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target. The highly concentrated volume profile (13% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
WST Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does West Pharmaceutical Services, Inc. convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
West Pharmaceutical Services, Inc. converts 61% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, an exceptional conversion rate indicating an asset-light business model with minimal capital reinvestment drag. The positive ROIC-WACC spread of 1.3% confirms that reinvested capital creates shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-08 | 4 | $322.01 | $1,288.04 |
| 2026-05-04 | 3 | $300.68 | $902.04 |
| 2026-05-01 | 51 | $297.59 | $15,177.09 |
| 2026-04-21 | 41 | $278.00 | $11,398 |
| 2026-04-20 | 251 | $273.73 | $68,706.23 |
| 2026-04-16 | 49 | $266.50 | $13,058.5 |
| 2026-04-14 | 21 | $259.96 | $5,459.16 |
| 2026-04-13 | 41 | $256.55 | $10,518.55 |
| 2026-04-10 | 5 | $258.54 | $1,292.7 |
| 2026-04-06 | 200 | $254.80 | $50,960 |
| 2026-03-25 | 711 | $245.27 | $174,386.97 |
| 2026-02-24 | 7,162 | $244.22 | $1.7M |
| 2026-02-19 | 1,399 | $248.26 | $347,315.74 |
| 2026-02-18 | 815 | $243.19 | $198,199.85 |
| 2026-02-09 | 3,988 | $248.95 | $992,812.6 |
| 2026-02-06 | 113 | $231.62 | $26,173.06 |
| 2026-01-23 | 428 | $247.78 | $106,049.84 |
| 2026-01-20 | 53 | $259.79 | $13,768.87 |
| 2025-12-30 | 37 | $275.60 | $10,197.2 |
| 2025-12-24 | 2,713 | $277.49 | $752,830.37 |
| 2025-12-22 | 100 | $272.54 | $27,254 |
| 2025-12-16 | 22 | $271.86 | $5,980.92 |
| 2025-12-15 | 478 | $267.56 | $127,893.68 |
| 2025-12-05 | 505 | $281.77 | $142,293.85 |
| 2025-10-22 | 80 | $279.39 | $22,351.2 |
| 2025-10-20 | 3 | $270.60 | $811.8 |
| 2025-10-14 | 1,841 | $262.47 | $483,207.27 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| DHR | 0.471 | 0.497 | Moderate |
| IQV | 0.451 | 0.467 | Moderate |
| A | 0.444 | 0.546 | Moderate |
| MTD | 0.435 | 0.555 | Moderate |
| TMO | 0.417 | 0.414 | Moderate |
| POOL | 0.400 | 0.362 | Moderate |
| FTI | 0.371 | 0.376 | Moderate |
| AOS | 0.366 | 0.263 | Moderate |
| WAT | 0.365 | 0.388 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare WST to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.