Array Digital Infrastructure, Inc. (AD)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicAD trades at 23.9x earnings, roughly in line with its sector average of 32.1x. Strong operational fundamentals (Piotroski 7/9) with Altman Z of 1.5. Beneish M-Score of -2.13 exceeds the -2.22 academic threshold — earnings quality may warrant further review.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedArray Digital Infrastructure exhibits a distinct capital structure characterized by exceptional profitability relative to asset efficiency, driven primarily by high margins rather than operational velocity. The DuPont decomposition reveals that the 1.9% Return on Equity is fueled almost entirely by a robust net margin of 29.9%, while asset turnover remains low at 0.03x and leverage sits modestly at 1.82x, indicating a capital-light business model where revenue generation does not require proportional balance sheet expansion. Despite the relatively thin Return on Invested Capital spread of just 3.0%, which may constrain long-term compounding compared to high-growth tech peers, the company demonstrates strong financial integrity with a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 and a Beneish M-Score of -2.15, signaling low earnings manipulation risk and solid fundamental quality within its communication services sector.
Valuation metrics present a mixed picture where current multiples diverge significantly from historical norms and peer averages. Trading at a P/E ratio of 23.9x, the stock is priced approximately 34% below the sector average of 36.3x, suggesting potential relative value or market skepticism regarding its growth trajectory despite recent revenue expansion. However, this discount contrasts sharply with the implied valuation from discounted cash flow analysis, which assigns a fair value of $52, implying that current pricing may not fully reflect the company's projected earnings power and high 58.3% year-over-year revenue growth. The market appears to be applying a conservative multiple that does yet account for the full extent of its margin expansion capabilities or future cash flow potential as priced in by fundamental models.
The risk profile remains neutral regarding insider sentiment, with no significant buying or selling activity detected over the last 90 days, resulting in zero net insider flow. While the high Piotroski score and low Beneish M-Score mitigate concerns about financial engineering, the modest ROIC spread introduces a specific operational risk where returns on capital are not yet optimized to match the aggressive revenue growth rate of nearly 60%. Investors must weigh whether the current valuation discount reflects temporary market dislocation or a structural ceiling in profitability that prevents the stock from converging with its higher DCF-implied fair value.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
InteractiveSensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 6% | 7.4% | 9.4% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $29 | $20 | $13 |
| 3% | $39 | $25 | $15 |
| 4% | $59 | $32 | $18 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs —.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=7.4%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $25 (+0.0%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
⚠️ Dividend consumes >80% of FCF — sustainability risk.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like XTL or VGK, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell AD shares regardless of Array Digital Infrastructure, Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $1.3B of passive capital is structurally linked to AD through 8 tracked ETFs. Index rebalances and ETF creation/redemption cycles can create noticeable volume spikes unrelated to company news.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Array Digital Infrastructure, Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Array Digital Infrastructure, Inc. (AD) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies ASML Holding NV (ASML) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 2 ETFs with AD. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 11 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
AD Ownership Dynamics
ETFs with Highest AD Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 11 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
AD Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Array Digital Infrastructure, Inc. convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Array Digital Infrastructure, Inc. converts 78% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, an exceptional conversion rate indicating an asset-light business model with minimal capital reinvestment drag. However, the ROIC-WACC spread is negative (-4.4%), suggesting reinvested capital is destroying shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-06 | 2 | $49.43 | $98.86 |
| 2026-05-04 | 3 | $49.19 | $147.57 |
| 2026-04-21 | 5,927 | $49.59 | $293,919.93 |
| 2026-04-08 | 2 | $48.13 | $96.26 |
| 2026-03-05 | 245 | $49.91 | $12,227.95 |
| 2026-03-04 | 4,050 | $48.88 | $197,964 |
| 2026-03-03 | 131 | $48.31 | $6,328.61 |
| 2026-02-25 | 26,860 | $47.94 | $1.3M |
| 2026-02-24 | 2,500 | $48.47 | $121,175 |
| 2026-02-23 | 139 | $49.27 | $6,848.53 |
| 2026-02-20 | 2,500 | $50.34 | $125,850 |
| 2026-02-18 | 2,500 | $51.24 | $128,100 |
| 2026-02-13 | 26 | $50.56 | $1,314.56 |
| 2026-02-02 | 28,950 | $48.19 | $1.4M |
| 2026-01-21 | 3,520 | $56.55 | $199,056 |
| 2026-01-20 | 6,303 | $57.80 | $364,313.4 |
| 2026-01-08 | 78 | $54.76 | $4,271.28 |
| 2026-01-07 | 1,011 | $53.84 | $54,432.24 |
| 2025-12-31 | 86 | $53.81 | $4,627.66 |
| 2025-12-24 | 1,478 | $53.60 | $79,220.8 |
| 2025-12-23 | 5,405 | $53.69 | $290,194.45 |
| 2025-12-18 | 1 | $50.52 | $50.52 |
| 2025-12-17 | 64 | $50.25 | $3,216 |
| 2025-12-16 | 70 | $49.01 | $3,430.7 |
| 2025-12-15 | 960 | $49.25 | $47,280 |
| 2025-12-11 | 2,246 | $49.95 | $112,187.7 |
| 2025-12-10 | 1,039 | $49.25 | $51,170.75 |
| 2025-12-05 | 268 | $49.81 | $13,349.08 |
| 2025-12-03 | 213 | $49.49 | $10,541.37 |
| 2025-12-02 | 419 | $48.90 | $20,489.1 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Compare AD to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: N/A.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.