Energy

Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. (AESI)

$14.07
+2.18%
$1.8B
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
0.98
Beta
7.26%
Dividend Yield
Piotroski 3/9Beneish M -2.24 Clean

Quantitative Summary

Deterministic

Below-average fundamentals indicated by Piotroski score of 3/9.

Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.

Price Chart with Moving Averages

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SMA 50 SMA 200

Quant Health Deep Dive

3/9
Piotroski F-Score
Weak — below-average operational and profitability metrics
-2.24
Beneish M-Score
Below threshold — no statistical earnings quality concern per Beneish model. Threshold: <-2.22 = below threshold.

Profitability & Value Creation

13.8%
Gross Margin
-4.6%
Net Margin
-0.4%
ROIC
+3.7%
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-183.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-30.9M
Free Cash Flow

Balance Sheet Health

0.84x
Debt / Equity
1.46x
Current Ratio
-0.2x
Interest Coverage
2.8x
Net Debt / EBITDA
178.8M
EBITDA

Earnings Surprise History

Q4
✗ Miss
Est: $0.18
Act: $0.03
-81.4%
Q3
✗ Miss
Est: $0.11
Act: $-0.01
-105.2%
Q2
✗ Miss
Est: $-0.02
Act: $-0.18
-821.0%
Q1
✗ Miss
Est: $-0.20
Act: $-0.21
-4.9%

EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.

Dividend History

$0.2500
Latest Dividend
$0.75
2025 Total
-16.7%
YoY Growth
Annual Dividends per Share
$0.70
2023
$0.90
2024
$0.75
2025
DateAmountChange
2025-08-14$0.25000.0%
2025-05-15$0.25000.0%
2025-02-21$0.2500+4.2%
2024-11-07$0.2400+4.3%
2024-08-15$0.2300+4.5%
2024-05-15$0.2200+4.8%
2024-02-21$0.2100+5.0%
2023-11-08$0.20000.0%
2023-08-09$0.2000-33.3%
2023-05-12$0.3000

Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.

Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)

How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.

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Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)

How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.

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Rolling Beta Market (β = 1.0)

Fundamentals

36.8
Forward P/E
PEG Ratio
1.50
Price/Book
4M
Avg Volume
$20.13
52W High
$7.64
52W Low
51%
52W Range Position

Passive Flow Attribution

ETF Draft Effect
$52M
Tracked Passive Exposure
6
ETFs Holding AESI
0.06%
Avg Weight in ETFs
$83B
Total ETF AUM

When investors buy or sell ETFs like XES or SLYV, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell AESI shares regardless of Atlas Energy Solutions Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $52M of passive capital is structurally linked to AESI through 6 tracked ETFs. Passive flows have a limited but growing influence on AESI's daily trading dynamics.

Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 6 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.

ETF Contagion Visualizer

Simulate a price drop in Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.

AESI Shock
-0%
Est. Passive Redemption
$0
Systemic Risk
STABLE
AESIEpicenterVBKETFSPSMETFVDEETFCVXLow RiskCOPLow RiskOIILow RiskAROCHigh RiskKGSHigh Risk
AESI Price Drop (%)0

If Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. (AESI) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies Chevron Corp. (CVX) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with AESI. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.

Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 6 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.

AESI Ownership Dynamics

Passive funds hold 1 in every 36 AESI shares, reducing daily market volatility.

Ticker
AESI
Total Shares
125M
ETF Lock-Up
2.8%
Display Mode
Total Float Impact
2.8%Locked Float

Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. (AESI) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 2.6% of the XES (XES) and 0.1% of the SLYV (SLYV). Across 6 tracked ETFs, approximately 3M shares (2.8% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. As passive ownership grows, index inclusion changes may increasingly drive price discovery.

Float lock-up computed from 6 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).

AESI Institutional Volume Profile

252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.

TICKER
AESI
PRICE
$14.07
FLOOR (POC)
$11.07
STRENGTH
High
$8$9$9$107%$109%$11POC 17%$1214%$127%$13$146%$14$14.07$15$15$16$17$17$18$19$19$20
Focus Zone
Point of Control (POC) Support (below price) Resistance (above price) Current Price

The highest-volume price zone for Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. over the past year sits near $11.07 (17% of 252-day volume). The current price of $14.07 trades 27.0% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target. The highly concentrated volume profile (17% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.

Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.

AESI Capital Efficiency

How efficiently does Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.

Free Cash Flow
$-30,925,000
EBITDA
$179M
FCF Conversion
-17%
Reinvestment Rate
117%
-17% of EBITDA → Free Cash
0% (cash burn)25% (low)50% (efficient)100% (pure cash)

Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. converts -17% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, negative FCF conversion — the company is consuming cash faster than it generates EBITDA, which is unsustainable long-term. The 117% reinvestment rate signals aggressive capacity expansion.

Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.

Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History

SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.

DateFailed SharesClose PriceNotional Value
2026-06-12277,816$16.47$4.6M
2026-06-116,160$17.03$104,904.8
2026-06-02704$17.11$12,045.44
2026-06-01442$16.69$7,376.98
2026-05-291,863$17.02$31,708.26
2026-05-281,329$18.16$24,134.64
2026-05-271,884$19.33$36,417.72
2026-05-261,816$19.07$34,631.12
2026-05-227,382$19.47$143,727.54
2026-05-211,035$19.75$20,441.25
2026-05-195,523$19.45$107,422.35
2026-05-18100$18.87$1,887
2026-05-158,537$18.98$162,032.26
2026-05-1412,505$18.95$236,969.75
2026-05-13103,285$18.28$1.9M
2026-05-1233,545$18.84$631,987.8
2026-05-081,081$18.28$19,760.68
2026-05-07272,407$18.39$5.0M
2026-05-0663,088$19.22$1.2M
2026-05-056,859$17.75$121,747.25
2026-05-0423,870$17.13$408,893.1
2026-05-0133,910$17.38$589,355.8
2026-04-30169,001$17.20$2.9M
2026-04-2833,245$16.70$555,191.5
2026-04-27605$16.31$9,867.55
2026-04-2250,410$14.63$737,498.3
2026-04-2156,757$13.81$783,814.17
2026-04-2070,237$13.29$933,449.73
2026-04-1631,126$13.17$409,929.42
2026-04-139,054$11.37$102,943.98

Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.

Price Correlations

Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.

Peer252-Day (1Y)126-Day (6M)Direction
WTGXXNaNNaN
MGMXXNaNNaN
GVMXXNaNNaN
PUMP0.5910.565Moderate
PTEN0.5300.473Moderate
LBRT0.5100.519Moderate
HP0.4930.492Moderate
NBR0.4860.416Moderate
WTTR0.4530.461Moderate
CHRD0.4170.409Moderate

Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.

Compare AESI to Peers

Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-07-17.

SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.