Best Buy Co., Inc. (BBY)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicAt 14.4x earnings — a 59% discount to the sector average of 35.0x — BBY is in the lower valuation range. Financial health metrics are strong: Piotroski 7/9, Altman Z 4.2 (above 3.0 safe zone threshold). DCF fair value of $150 implies 146% upside from current prices based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedBest Buy demonstrates a robust fundamental profile characterized by significant capital efficiency and financial stability. The company generates an ROIC of 16.4% against a WACC of 12.5%, creating a +3.9% spread that indicates value creation beyond the cost of capital, while a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 signals strong balance sheet health and operational improvement trends. Although net margins remain compressed at 2.6%, this is supported by solid gross margins of 22.5% and reinforced by an Altman Z-Score of 4.2, which places the firm in a safe zone regarding bankruptcy risk. The Beneish M-Score of -2.83 further suggests earnings are unlikely to be manipulated, aligning with the robust profitability factor (RMW) score of 0.923 observed in factor models.
Valuation metrics present a distinct divergence between historical norms and current market pricing relative to peers. While the current P/E ratio of 12.4x sits only marginally above its five-year average of 11.4x, it trades at a substantial discount compared to the sector's 34.6x multiple, implying the market is not fully pricing in similar growth prospects despite BBY's superior capital returns. However, DCF analysis suggests limited upside potential, with a fair value estimate of $53 reflecting an implied free cash flow growth rate of just 3.6% over the next decade and indicating a -15.0% downside from current levels. This valuation gap highlights that while absolute multiples appear reasonable relative to history, intrinsic models do not currently support significant appreciation based on assumed long-term cash generation capabilities.
Risk-adjusted performance data reveals notable headwinds in recent market pricing dynamics. The stock has exhibited a Fama-French Alpha of -37.15% annually, indicating underperformance relative to its risk factors over the measured period, though it remains neutral regarding the value factor (HML) at -0.080. This negative alpha coincides with significant insider activity, as insiders have recorded $4,945,276 in net selling over the last 90 days, a signal that management may perceive limited near-term upside or is managing personal portfolio exposure given the static revenue growth environment of just 0.4% year-over-year.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 0% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 10.5% | 12.5% | 14.5% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $175 | $139 | $115 |
| 3% | $194 | $150 | $122 |
| 4% | $218 | $164 | $130 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $72.78.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=12.5%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $150 (+146.5%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 4% above its 5-year average P/E of 11.9x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedBest Buy Co., Inc. is currently trading at $60.98, a price point that requires contextualization against its moving average envelope to assess relative value. Without the specific upper and lower boundary values of the standard deviation bands or simple moving averages, it remains unclear whether this current level represents an undervalued zone near support or potentially overextended territory approaching resistance. In mean-reversion strategies, prices trading significantly below a long-term average often signal potential upward correction toward the centerline, whereas those far above suggest possible pullbacks. The absence of band data prevents a definitive determination of where BBY sits within its historical volatility range relative to recent trends. From a sector perspective as a consumer cyclical stock, pricing dynamics are frequently sensitive to broader economic indicators and discretionary spending patterns rather than isolated technical anomalies. If the current price were hovering near the lower boundary of a typical 20-period standard deviation envelope, it might imply statistical overextension that could invite a bounce toward equilibrium. Conversely, proximity to the upper band would suggest stretched valuations relative to recent momentum. Determining which scenario applies necessitates calculating the distance between $60.98 and the calculated mean reversion lines derived from historical price action. Ultimately, the technical setup for BBY depends entirely on how this specific dollar figure aligns with its dynamic support and resistance zones defined by moving averages. Investors must evaluate whether the gap between current market pricing and these statistical means indicates a high probability of convergence or continued divergence.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-24 | $0.9600 | +1.1% |
| 2025-12-16 | $0.9500 | 0.0% |
| 2025-09-18 | $0.9500 | 0.0% |
| 2025-06-18 | $0.9500 | 0.0% |
| 2025-03-25 | $0.9500 | +1.1% |
| 2024-12-17 | $0.9400 | 0.0% |
| 2024-09-19 | $0.9400 | 0.0% |
| 2024-06-20 | $0.9400 | 0.0% |
| 2024-03-20 | $0.9400 | +2.2% |
| 2023-12-11 | $0.9200 | 0.0% |
| 2023-09-18 | $0.9200 | 0.0% |
| 2023-06-14 | $0.9200 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like XRT or SPYD, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell BBY shares regardless of Best Buy Co., Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $2.2B of passive capital is structurally linked to BBY through 8 tracked ETFs. Index rebalances and ETF creation/redemption cycles can create noticeable volume spikes unrelated to company news.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Best Buy Co., Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Best Buy Co., Inc. (BBY) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies TARGET CORP (TGT) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 3 ETFs with BBY. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 35 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
BBY Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 5 BBY shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Best Buy Co., Inc. (BBY) exerts notable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 1.4% of the XRT (XRT) and 1.1% of the SPYD (SPYD). Across 35 tracked ETFs, approximately 40M shares (19.1% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest BBY Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 35 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
BBY Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Best Buy Co., Inc. over the past year sits near $65.89 (13% of 252-day volume). The current price of $72.78 trades 10.5% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target. The highly concentrated volume profile (13% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
BBY Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Best Buy Co., Inc. convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Best Buy Co., Inc. converts 55% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a healthy conversion rate indicating efficient capital management — the business generates substantial cash after reinvestment. The positive ROIC-WACC spread of 3.9% confirms that reinvested capital creates shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-12 | 144,039 | $57.62 | $8.3M |
| 2026-05-11 | 17,448 | $59.40 | $1.0M |
| 2026-05-08 | 33,851 | $58.54 | $2.0M |
| 2026-05-01 | 3,137 | $60.49 | $189,757.13 |
| 2026-04-30 | 24,233 | $58.73 | $1.4M |
| 2026-04-20 | 8,386 | $65.73 | $551,211.78 |
| 2026-04-15 | 3 | $62.06 | $186.18 |
| 2026-04-09 | 3,434 | $64.48 | $221,424.32 |
| 2026-04-06 | 2,103 | $64.50 | $135,643.5 |
| 2026-04-01 | 7,586 | $64.20 | $487,021.2 |
| 2026-03-25 | 13,536 | $61.71 | $835,306.56 |
| 2026-03-23 | 160,160 | $62.80 | $10.1M |
| 2026-03-18 | 1,461 | $62.62 | $91,487.82 |
| 2026-03-10 | 100 | $65.96 | $6,596 |
| 2026-03-09 | 92,634 | $66.68 | $6.2M |
| 2026-03-04 | 44 | $65.95 | $2,901.8 |
| 2026-03-03 | 7,604 | $61.59 | $468,330.36 |
| 2026-02-24 | 1 | $62.71 | $62.71 |
| 2026-02-20 | 24 | $66.30 | $1,591.2 |
| 2026-02-19 | 7,276 | $66.91 | $486,837.16 |
| 2026-02-09 | 6,500 | $70.41 | $457,665 |
| 2026-02-05 | 926 | $68.50 | $63,431 |
| 2026-01-27 | 58,310 | $66.75 | $3.9M |
| 2026-01-26 | 1,896 | $67.05 | $127,126.8 |
| 2026-01-21 | 347,559 | $65.83 | $22.9M |
| 2026-01-09 | 1,337 | $71.81 | $96,009.97 |
| 2026-01-07 | 405 | $72.17 | $29,228.85 |
| 2026-01-06 | 18 | $70.05 | $1,260.9 |
| 2026-01-02 | 6,736 | $66.93 | $450,840.48 |
| 2025-12-24 | 10,508 | $69.58 | $731,146.64 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| TGT | 0.579 | 0.498 | Moderate |
| SWK | 0.539 | 0.420 | Moderate |
| WSM | 0.517 | 0.452 | Moderate |
| HST | 0.511 | 0.371 | Moderate |
| SWKS | 0.509 | 0.435 | Moderate |
| ASB | 0.498 | 0.439 | Moderate |
| FTV | 0.496 | 0.377 | Moderate |
| APTV | 0.495 | 0.395 | Moderate |
| AUB | 0.490 | 0.396 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare BBY to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.