Target Corporation (TGT)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicAt 16.8x earnings — a 48% discount to the sector average of 32.6x — TGT is in the lower valuation range. Financial health is average: Piotroski 6/9, Altman Z 3.0. DCF fair value of $48 implies 59% downside based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics present a distinct capital efficiency challenge despite robust profitability metrics. While the DuPont decomposition reveals that earnings power is driven primarily by high asset turnover (1.76x) and leverage (3.68x) rather than margin expansion, the ROIC-WACC spread of only 0.8% indicates limited value creation relative to the cost of capital. This inefficiency aligns with a negative Piotroski F-Score delta given revenue contraction (-1.7%), even as the Altman Z-Score (3.0) and Beneish M-Score (-2.41) suggest reasonable solvency and low earnings manipulation risk. The stock exhibits strong value characteristics via an HML factor of 0.108, yet this is counterbalanced by a significant RMW factor score of 0.454 that fails to offset the capital allocation drag implied by such a narrow spread.
Valuation metrics reflect substantial market skepticism regarding future growth trajectories and current operational headwinds. Trading at 14.8x P/E, the stock sits below its historical average but remains elevated relative to the DCF-derived fair value of $45, which implies an unrealistic ten-year free cash flow growth rate of 8.7% given the recent revenue decline. The resulting -62.6% upside gap suggests current pricing assumes a reversion in performance that has not yet materialized; conversely, the market may be over-discounting assets if the implied growth assumption is too conservative for a retailer with this profitability profile. Investors must weigh whether the low multiple adequately compensates for the divergence between DCF models and realized earnings quality.
Risk analysis highlights divergent signals regarding downside protection versus potential alpha generation. The Fama-French annualized alpha of -12.62% indicates persistent underperformance relative to size, value, and profitability benchmarks over recent periods. Compounding this technical weakness is a notable net insider selling flow of $6.3 million over the last 90 days, which often signals management caution or liquidity needs rather than confidence in near-term catalysts. While the low Beneish score mitigates fraud concerns, the combination of negative alpha and active insider distribution suggests that risk-adjusted returns may remain subdued until fundamental drivers like asset turnover or margin expansion show sustained improvement.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of -2% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 7.7% | 9.7% | 11.7% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $62 | $42 | $30 |
| 3% | $76 | $48 | $33 |
| 4% | $96 | $57 | $38 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $123.18.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=9.7%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $48 (-59.2%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 13% below its 5-year average P/E of 17.2x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-13 | $1.1400 | 0.0% |
| 2026-02-11 | $1.1400 | 0.0% |
| 2025-11-12 | $1.1400 | 0.0% |
| 2025-08-13 | $1.1400 | +1.8% |
| 2025-05-14 | $1.1200 | 0.0% |
| 2025-02-12 | $1.1200 | 0.0% |
| 2024-11-20 | $1.1200 | 0.0% |
| 2024-08-21 | $1.1200 | +1.8% |
| 2024-05-14 | $1.1000 | 0.0% |
| 2024-02-20 | $1.1000 | 0.0% |
| 2023-11-14 | $1.1000 | 0.0% |
| 2023-08-15 | $1.1000 | +1.9% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like XLP or VDC, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell TGT shares regardless of Target Corporation's individual fundamentals. We estimate $10.2B of passive capital is structurally linked to TGT through 8 tracked ETFs. This substantial passive exposure means that ETF inflows and outflows — not company fundamentals — can dominate daily volume on this stock.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Target Corporation to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Target Corporation (TGT) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies Walmart Inc. (WMT) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with TGT. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 36 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
TGT Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 5 TGT shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Target Corporation (TGT) exerts notable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 3.7% of the State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLP) and 2.0% of the VDC (VDC). Across 37 tracked ETFs, approximately 90M shares (19.9% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest TGT Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 37 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
TGT Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Target Corporation over the past year sits near $86.39 (12% of 252-day volume). The current price of $123.18 trades 42.6% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
TGT Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Target Corporation convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Target Corporation converts 34% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a moderate conversion rate — significant EBITDA is consumed by capital expenditures, working capital changes, or interest payments. The 66% reinvestment rate signals aggressive capacity expansion. The positive ROIC-WACC spread of 1.1% confirms that reinvested capital creates shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | 37,004 | $121.48 | $4.5M |
| 2026-05-12 | 22 | $118.44 | $2,605.68 |
| 2026-04-27 | 100 | $129.26 | $12,926 |
| 2026-04-23 | 161,961 | $130.60 | $21.2M |
| 2026-04-22 | 370 | $132.10 | $48,877 |
| 2026-04-21 | 146,603 | $130.18 | $19.1M |
| 2026-04-20 | 2,722 | $127.84 | $347,980.48 |
| 2026-04-15 | 3 | $119.53 | $358.59 |
| 2026-04-14 | 65 | $117.88 | $7,662.2 |
| 2026-04-10 | 130 | $124.03 | $16,123.9 |
| 2026-04-09 | 787 | $123.12 | $96,895.44 |
| 2026-04-06 | 100 | $120.45 | $12,045 |
| 2026-03-25 | 1,603 | $115.92 | $185,819.76 |
| 2026-03-23 | 2,100 | $113.26 | $237,846 |
| 2026-03-11 | 338 | $120.74 | $40,810.12 |
| 2026-03-10 | 61,912 | $120.14 | $7.4M |
| 2026-03-09 | 1,263 | $120.79 | $152,557.77 |
| 2026-02-27 | 90 | $114.79 | $10,331.1 |
| 2026-02-23 | 900 | $116.69 | $105,021 |
| 2026-02-17 | 116,285 | $115.76 | $13.5M |
| 2026-02-11 | 2,116 | $113.23 | $239,594.68 |
| 2026-02-10 | 6,000 | $115.52 | $693,120 |
| 2026-02-09 | 35,460 | $115.55 | $4.1M |
| 2026-02-06 | 8,966 | $110.85 | $993,881.1 |
| 2026-02-05 | 2,727 | $114.13 | $311,232.51 |
| 2026-02-04 | 16,802 | $111.30 | $1.9M |
| 2026-02-03 | 537,516 | $109.53 | $58.9M |
| 2026-01-20 | 454,375 | $111.28 | $50.6M |
| 2026-01-15 | 1,998 | $109.82 | $219,420.36 |
| 2026-01-12 | 566 | $105.52 | $59,724.32 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| BBY | 0.579 | 0.498 | Moderate |
| SWK | 0.555 | 0.433 | Moderate |
| FDX | 0.506 | 0.342 | Moderate |
| MTH | 0.495 | 0.384 | Moderate |
| ODFL | 0.495 | 0.402 | Moderate |
| UPS | 0.491 | 0.348 | Moderate |
| WSM | 0.484 | 0.487 | Moderate |
| VRTPX | 0.482 | 0.359 | Moderate |
| PCAR | 0.479 | 0.319 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare TGT to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.