Cincinnati Financial Corporation (CINF)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicAt 9.0x earnings — a 53% discount to the sector average of 19.2x — CINF is in the lower valuation range. Financial health is average: Piotroski 4/9, Altman Z 1.7. DCF fair value of $480 implies 193% upside from current prices based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics of Cincinnati Financial Corporation present a distinct tension between current profitability metrics and capital efficiency. While the DuPont decomposition reveals that earnings are driven primarily by robust net margins at 18.9% rather than asset turnover or leverage, this operational strength is undermined by negative capital returns; an ROIC of 5.8% falling short of the 8.7% WACC yields a -2.8% spread, indicating value destruction on invested capital. This inefficiency is corroborated by risk indicators: a Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 suggests limited financial robustness relative to peers, and an Altman Z-Score of 1.7 flags elevated bankruptcy risk within the sector context.
Valuation metrics paint a complex picture where market pricing diverges sharply from discounted cash flow models. The stock trades at 10.4x earnings, significantly below both its historical trajectory and the broader financial services average of 18.0x, suggesting substantial mean reversion potential or persistent concerns about future growth sustainability. Although a DCF model implies significant upside to $483 based on current assumptions, this valuation relies heavily on implied FCF growth turning negative at -5.0% over ten years, which creates a precarious foundation for such high multiples in absolute terms rather than relative value.
Risk-adjusted performance data further complicates the investment thesis by highlighting persistent underperformance against factor benchmarks. The stock exhibits an annualized Fama-French alpha of -6.41%, indicating it has failed to generate excess returns after adjusting for market, size, and other risk factors over time. While a Value Factor (HML) score of 0.816 confirms the security's tilt toward value characteristics, this is not offset by profitability momentum, as evidenced by a neutral RMW factor of only 0.080. Despite these structural headwinds in capital efficiency and risk-adjusted returns, recent insider activity shows $162,580 net buying over ninety days, introducing a counter-narrative element regarding management's view on the current price level.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 11% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 6.7% | 8.7% | 10.7% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $607 | $420 | $319 |
| 3% | $749 | $480 | $351 |
| 4% | $997 | $566 | $392 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $158.00.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=8.7%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $480 (+193.1%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 13% below its 5-year average P/E of 12.3x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedThe current technical landscape for Cincinnati Financial Corporation suggests a consolidation phase where institutional positioning may be shifting from accumulation to distribution or vice versa. With the stock trading at $167.65, the proximity of short-term moving averages to longer-term benchmarks often indicates that larger market participants are closely monitoring volatility thresholds before committing significant capital. A flattening trend in price action combined with muted volume trends can imply a lack of immediate directional conviction among sophisticated traders, who may be waiting for clearer catalysts such as earnings revisions or sector-wide rotation signals. If the moving averages were to exhibit distinct crossovers while volume expands, this would typically signal that institutional flows are aligning behind a specific price direction, potentially marking a transition from range-bound trading to a sustained trend. Conversely, persistent low-volume choppy movement around these key levels might suggest that major players are hedging their exposure or rebalancing portfolios without triggering broad market participation. The absence of sharp volume spikes alongside steady price consolidation further reinforces the notion that large entities are exercising caution rather than aggressively deploying funds into new positions at current valuations. Ultimately, the interplay between these technical metrics reflects a state of equilibrium where institutional behavior is characterized by observation and selective entry points rather than decisive momentum plays. Market participants should interpret the convergence of these indicators as evidence that smart money is currently in a wait-and-see mode, assessing whether underlying fundamentals can support further price appreciation or if downward pressure will emerge from broader macroeconomic factors affecting the financial services sector
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-24 | $0.9400 | +8.0% |
| 2025-12-22 | $0.8700 | 0.0% |
| 2025-09-22 | $0.8700 | 0.0% |
| 2025-06-23 | $0.8700 | 0.0% |
| 2025-03-24 | $0.8700 | +7.4% |
| 2024-12-19 | $0.8100 | 0.0% |
| 2024-09-17 | $0.8100 | 0.0% |
| 2024-06-18 | $0.8100 | 0.0% |
| 2024-03-18 | $0.8100 | +8.0% |
| 2023-12-18 | $0.7500 | 0.0% |
| 2023-09-15 | $0.7500 | 0.0% |
| 2023-06-15 | $0.7500 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like KIE or NOBL, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell CINF shares regardless of Cincinnati Financial Corporation's individual fundamentals. We estimate $5.1B of passive capital is structurally linked to CINF through 8 tracked ETFs. This substantial passive exposure means that ETF inflows and outflows — not company fundamentals — can dominate daily volume on this stock.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Cincinnati Financial Corporation to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Cincinnati Financial Corporation (CINF) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies Altria Group Inc (MO) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 2 ETFs with CINF. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 36 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
CINF Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 5 CINF shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Cincinnati Financial Corporation (CINF) exerts notable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 1.8% of the KIE (KIE) and 1.4% of the ProShares S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats ETF (NOBL). Across 36 tracked ETFs, approximately 33M shares (21.1% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This high passive lock-up reduces the effective active float, which can amplify daily price volatility and momentum signals.
ETFs with Highest CINF Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 36 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
CINF Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Cincinnati Financial Corporation over the past year sits near $163.54 (13% of 252-day volume). The current price of $158.00 sits 3.4% below the POC — suggesting potential mean-reversion upside if institutional demand reasserts at this level. The highly concentrated volume profile (13% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
CINF Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Cincinnati Financial Corporation convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Cincinnati Financial Corporation converts 97% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, an exceptional conversion rate indicating an asset-light business model with minimal capital reinvestment drag. However, the ROIC-WACC spread is negative (-2.9%), suggesting reinvested capital is destroying shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-13 | 798 | $163.79 | $130,704.42 |
| 2026-05-08 | 18 | $162.05 | $2,916.9 |
| 2026-04-29 | 2 | $164.96 | $329.92 |
| 2026-04-21 | 35 | $165.99 | $5,809.65 |
| 2026-04-15 | 3 | $163.35 | $490.05 |
| 2026-04-09 | 493 | $163.25 | $80,482.25 |
| 2026-03-25 | 15 | $158.27 | $2,374.05 |
| 2026-03-06 | 9 | $166.34 | $1,497.06 |
| 2026-02-27 | 1,385 | $165.20 | $228,802 |
| 2026-02-26 | 5 | $163.75 | $818.75 |
| 2026-02-04 | 53 | $163.84 | $8,683.52 |
| 2026-01-30 | 787 | $158.19 | $124,495.53 |
| 2026-01-15 | 55 | $163.68 | $9,002.4 |
| 2026-01-13 | 18 | $163.63 | $2,945.34 |
| 2025-12-26 | 110 | $165.87 | $18,245.7 |
| 2025-12-16 | 2,888 | $167.07 | $482,498.16 |
| 2025-11-17 | 20 | $163.90 | $3,278 |
| 2025-11-07 | 4 | $161.38 | $645.52 |
| 2025-10-27 | 103 | $156.67 | $16,137.01 |
| 2025-10-20 | 119 | $153.02 | $18,209.38 |
| 2025-10-16 | 1,572 | $156.35 | $245,782.2 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| L | 0.787 | 0.750 | High co-movement |
| HIG | 0.779 | 0.705 | High co-movement |
| TRV | 0.717 | 0.619 | High co-movement |
| CB | 0.629 | 0.590 | Moderate |
| ACGL | 0.629 | 0.603 | Moderate |
| WRB | 0.624 | 0.565 | Moderate |
| AFL | 0.613 | 0.587 | Moderate |
| ALL | 0.608 | 0.530 | Moderate |
| GL | 0.597 | 0.618 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare CINF to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.