Comcast Corporation (CMCSA)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicAt 4.9x earnings — a 85% discount to the sector average of 32.1x — CMCSA is in the lower valuation range. Strong operational fundamentals (Piotroski 8/9) with Altman Z of 1.5. DCF fair value of $186 implies 565% upside from current prices based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedComcast Corporation exhibits a capital structure with distinct characteristics, generating an ROIC of 10.0% that exceeds its WACC of 7.1%, resulting in a positive spread of +2.9%. The DuPont decomposition reveals that the 20.5% return on equity is driven primarily by high net margins at 16.2% and significant leverage via an equity multiplier of 2.80x, rather than asset turnover which sits at modest levels of 0.45x. Financial integrity metrics present a mixed picture; while the Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 indicates strong fundamental quality, the Altman Z-Score of 1.5 and negative Beneish M-Score of -2.73 suggest potential distress or manipulation concerns that warrant scrutiny alongside the robust profitability factor (RMW) alpha of 0.299.
Valuation metrics display a stark divergence between current pricing and discounted cash flow models, with the stock trading at 5.2x earnings compared to a sector average of 27.3x. The DCF model implies substantial upside potential, valuing shares at $182 or approximately 532.5% above current levels based on an assumed ten-year free cash flow growth rate of -7.1%. This wide gap suggests the market may be pricing in persistent stagnation, reflected in zero revenue growth year-over-year and negative long-term growth assumptions within the valuation framework, despite the company's established value tilt evidenced by a positive HML factor of 0.141.
Risk assessments highlight conflicting signals regarding future performance and insider sentiment. Although the stock demonstrates robust profitability relative to its sector, it carries a significant drag on risk-adjusted returns with an annual Fama-French alpha of -19.47%. Furthermore, recent insider activity shows $2,280,934 in net selling over the last 90 days, which contrasts with the high-quality Piotroski score and creates ambiguity regarding management's outlook versus the mathematical undervaluation suggested by the DCF model.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of -0% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 6% | 7% | 9% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $193 | $150 | $99 |
| 3% | $256 | $186 | $115 |
| 4% | $382 | $248 | $138 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $24.85.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=7.0%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $186 (+564.6%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 24% below its 5-year average P/E of 6.8x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedComcast Corporation is currently trading at $24.88, a price point that exists within the bounds of its established moving average envelope. When equity prices reside inside this band rather than testing extreme upper or lower boundaries, it often suggests a state of consolidation where volatility has contracted relative to recent historical ranges. This positioning implies that the asset is neither aggressively overextended nor deeply undervalued in terms of short-term momentum dynamics, creating an environment conducive to mean-reversion behaviors without clear directional bias. The proximity to the central trend lines indicates that immediate breakout or breakdown scenarios are less probable than continued oscillation within existing support and resistance levels defined by the envelope's width. Such a setup typically signals that market participants are waiting for additional catalysts before committing capital to significant new positions, leading to reduced intraday range expansion. Consequently, the technical structure reflects a balanced risk profile where price discovery is paused, allowing statistical probabilities to favor returns toward the moving average center rather than sustained deviations away from it.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-01 | $0.3300 | 0.0% |
| 2026-01-14 | $0.3300 | +6.7% |
| 2025-10-01 | $0.3093 | 0.0% |
| 2025-07-02 | $0.3093 | 0.0% |
| 2025-04-02 | $0.3093 | +6.5% |
| 2025-01-08 | $0.2905 | 0.0% |
| 2024-10-02 | $0.2905 | 0.0% |
| 2024-07-03 | $0.2905 | 0.0% |
| 2024-04-02 | $0.2905 | +6.9% |
| 2024-01-02 | $0.2718 | 0.0% |
| 2023-10-03 | $0.2718 | 0.0% |
| 2023-07-03 | $0.2718 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Smart Money Flow
Institutional 13F filings from top hedge funds. Positions updated quarterly from SEC EDGAR.
| Fund | Quarter | Shares Change | % Change | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Point72 Asset Mgmt | 2026-Q1 | +22,900 | +44.0% | Increased |
| Soros Fund Management | 2026-Q1 | -59,051 | -80.4% | Decreased |
| Citadel Advisors | 2026-Q1 | +512,900 | +18.3% | Increased |
| Renaissance Technologies | 2026-Q1 | -5,772,200 | -88.0% | Decreased |
| Bridgewater Associates | 2026-Q1 | -2,317,392 | -66.0% | Decreased |
| Two Sigma Investments | 2026-Q1 | +12,600 | +100.0% | New Position |
| DE Shaw | 2026-Q1 | +386,800 | +309.9% | Increased |
| Millennium Management | 2026-Q1 | -3,634,400 | -80.9% | Decreased |
| Citadel Advisors | 2025-Q4 | +1,747,100 | +165.2% | Increased |
| Renaissance Technologies | 2025-Q4 | -403,800 | -5.8% | Decreased |
| Bridgewater Associates | 2025-Q4 | -3,349,613 | -48.8% | Decreased |
| Two Sigma Investments | 2025-Q4 | -6,556,098 | -100.0% | Exited |
Source: SEC 13F-HR filings. 13F data is delayed ~45 days after quarter end. Not investment advice.
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like XLC or VOX, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell CMCSA shares regardless of Comcast Corporation's individual fundamentals. We estimate $13.8B of passive capital is structurally linked to CMCSA through 8 tracked ETFs. This substantial passive exposure means that ETF inflows and outflows — not company fundamentals — can dominate daily volume on this stock.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Comcast Corporation to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Comcast Corporation (CMCSA) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies Facebook Inc. Class A (META) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with CMCSA. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 30 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
CMCSA Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 7 CMCSA shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Comcast Corporation (CMCSA) exerts notable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 3.6% of the State Street Communication Services Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLC) and 2.5% of the VOX (VOX). Across 31 tracked ETFs, approximately 541M shares (15.2% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest CMCSA Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 31 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
CMCSA Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Comcast Corporation over the past year sits near $25.04 (10% of 252-day volume). The current price of $24.85 sits 0.8% below the POC — suggesting potential mean-reversion upside if institutional demand reasserts at this level.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
CMCSA Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Comcast Corporation convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Comcast Corporation converts 41% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a healthy conversion rate indicating efficient capital management — the business generates substantial cash after reinvestment. The 59% reinvestment rate signals aggressive capacity expansion. The positive ROIC-WACC spread of 3.0% confirms that reinvested capital creates shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | 20 | $24.94 | $498.8 |
| 2026-05-11 | 80,366 | $25.40 | $2.0M |
| 2026-05-08 | 51,142 | $26.24 | $1.3M |
| 2026-05-06 | 6,182 | $26.46 | $163,575.72 |
| 2026-05-01 | 920 | $27.04 | $24,876.8 |
| 2026-04-28 | 501,813 | $27.51 | $13.8M |
| 2026-04-27 | 7,378 | $27.56 | $203,337.68 |
| 2026-04-24 | 28,187 | $31.64 | $891,836.68 |
| 2026-04-15 | 30 | $28.14 | $844.2 |
| 2026-04-14 | 21 | $28.05 | $589.05 |
| 2026-04-09 | 525 | $27.96 | $14,679 |
| 2026-04-08 | 60,751 | $27.79 | $1.7M |
| 2026-04-07 | 56,069 | $27.66 | $1.6M |
| 2026-04-01 | 6,253 | $28.71 | $179,523.63 |
| 2026-03-27 | 569,407 | $28.72 | $16.4M |
| 2026-03-25 | 222 | $29.22 | $6,486.84 |
| 2026-03-23 | 167,702 | $29.02 | $4.9M |
| 2026-03-20 | 2,270,007 | $28.98 | $65.8M |
| 2026-03-13 | 25,765 | $30.16 | $777,072.4 |
| 2026-03-10 | 72 | $31.04 | $2,234.88 |
| 2026-03-05 | 90 | $32.09 | $2,888.1 |
| 2026-03-04 | 270 | $31.01 | $8,372.7 |
| 2026-03-03 | 17 | $30.82 | $523.94 |
| 2026-03-02 | 329 | $30.96 | $10,185.84 |
| 2026-02-23 | 204,383 | $31.34 | $6.4M |
| 2026-02-19 | 25 | $31.60 | $790 |
| 2026-02-09 | 100 | $31.37 | $3,137 |
| 2026-02-05 | 22,121 | $30.50 | $674,690.5 |
| 2026-02-02 | 1,698 | $29.75 | $50,515.5 |
| 2026-01-27 | 2,473 | $29.43 | $72,780.39 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Institutional Holdings (13F Filings)
Raw SEC 13F-HR filings from institutional investment managers. Shows exact share counts and portfolio values as reported to the SEC.
| Fund | Quarter | Shares | Value ($K) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Citadel Advisors | 2026-Q1 | 3,317,600 | $95,248,296K |
| Bridgewater Associates | 2026-Q1 | 1,192,620 | $34,240,120K |
| Millennium Management | 2026-Q1 | 858,900 | $24,659,019K |
| Renaissance Technologies | 2026-Q1 | 788,376 | $22,634,275K |
| DE Shaw | 2026-Q1 | 511,600 | $14,688,036K |
| Point72 Asset Mgmt | 2026-Q1 | 75,000 | $2,153,250K |
| Soros Fund Management | 2026-Q1 | 14,389 | $413,108K |
| Two Sigma Investments | 2026-Q1 | 12,600 | $361,746K |
| Renaissance Technologies | 2025-Q4 | 6,560,576 | $196,095,617K |
| Millennium Management | 2025-Q4 | 4,493,300 | $134,304,737K |
| Bridgewater Associates | 2025-Q4 | 3,510,012 | $104,914,259K |
| Citadel Advisors | 2025-Q4 | 2,804,700 | $83,832,483K |
| DE Shaw | 2025-Q4 | 124,800 | $3,494,637K |
| Soros Fund Management | 2025-Q4 | 73,440 | $2,195,122K |
| Point72 Asset Mgmt | 2025-Q4 | 52,100 | $1,557,269K |
Source: SEC 13F-HR filings. Values reported in thousands. 13F data is delayed ~45 days after quarter end.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| CHTR | 0.624 | 0.599 | Moderate |
| FULT | 0.411 | 0.344 | Moderate |
| MAS | 0.391 | 0.354 | Moderate |
| VRTPX | 0.382 | 0.223 | Moderate |
| PPG | 0.376 | 0.351 | Moderate |
| APTV | 0.374 | 0.293 | Moderate |
| PHM | 0.372 | 0.353 | Moderate |
| NVR | 0.372 | 0.368 | Moderate |
| BOKF | 0.372 | 0.311 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare CMCSA to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.