CenterPoint Energy, Inc. (CNP)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicCNP trades at 25.9x earnings, roughly in line with its sector average of 24.4x. Financial health is average: Piotroski 5/9, Altman Z 0.9.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics of CenterPoint Energy reveal a capital allocation challenge where the return on invested capital of 4.2% falls significantly below the weighted average cost of capital at 6.4%, creating a negative spread that suggests value erosion over time. Despite this inefficiency, equity returns are sustained through high leverage rather than operational excellence; the DuPont decomposition shows an ROE of 9.4% driven primarily by an equity multiplier of 4.17x, while net margins and asset turnover remain modest at 11.2% and 0.20x respectively. Credit risk is elevated as indicated by a distressed Altman Z-Score of 0.9, yet financial statement reliability appears intact with a strong Beneish M-Score of -2.61 indicating low manipulation probability and a moderate Piotroski F-Score of 5/9 reflecting mixed fundamental strength.
Valuation metrics present a disconnect between current pricing and historical or sector benchmarks, as the stock trades at a premium P/E ratio of 27.3x compared to the sector average of 24.2x. This elevated multiple implies that market participants are pricing in growth expectations not fully supported by recent revenue expansion of only 8.3% year-over-year. While the negative ROIC-WACC spread typically signals overvaluation, the current price-to-earnings ratio suggests investors may be compensating for specific risk factors or anticipating future margin improvements that have yet to materialize in earnings per share growth.
Risk-adjusted performance metrics offer a nuanced view of potential downside and alpha generation capabilities. The stock exhibits significant Fama-French style exposure with an annualized alpha of 14.54%, driven largely by its value factor tilt (HML: 0.386) which offsets weak profitability signals (RMW: -0.287). With neutral insider flow over the last ninety days, there is no immediate contrarian signal from management regarding near-term prospects. The combination of high leverage, negative capital efficiency, and distressed credit metrics creates a risk profile that must be weighed against the potential for mean reversion in valuation multiples or operational turnarounds.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 12% above its 5-year average P/E of 24.3x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedCenterPoint Energy, Inc. is currently trading at $41.72 within the Utilities sector, presenting a specific technical configuration regarding its position relative to moving average envelopes. The current price level sits in a context where mean-reversion dynamics are often scrutinized by analysts examining short-term volatility against longer-term trends. If the stock has recently pulled away from these central tendency lines, such as the 20-day or 50-day simple moving averages, it may be establishing conditions favorable for a potential return toward statistical norms, assuming historical patterns hold true in this sector. Conversely, if the price remains embedded within the bounds of the envelope without significant deviation, the asset might be exhibiting stability rather than an immediate correction or extension opportunity. The relative value proposition here hinges on whether $41.72 represents a temporary dislocation from the mean or a sustainable equilibrium point for utility equities in the current market climate. Utilities often display lower beta characteristics, meaning price movements can sometimes lag behind broader indices while maintaining tight adherence to their own moving average bands. Observers might note that if this price level coincides with resistance near an upper band boundary after a prior uptrend, statistical probability suggests a higher likelihood of consolidation or downward drift toward the center line. Similarly, proximity to lower envelope limits could imply upward pressure as the asset seeks parity with its recent average performance. Ultimately, the setup invites evaluation of how much room exists for price oscillation before historical support or resistance levels typically come into play.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-21 | $0.2300 | 0.0% |
| 2026-02-19 | $0.2300 | +4.5% |
| 2025-11-20 | $0.2200 | 0.0% |
| 2025-08-21 | $0.2200 | 0.0% |
| 2025-05-15 | $0.2200 | 0.0% |
| 2025-02-20 | $0.2200 | +4.8% |
| 2024-11-21 | $0.2100 | +5.0% |
| 2024-08-15 | $0.2000 | 0.0% |
| 2024-05-15 | $0.2000 | 0.0% |
| 2024-02-14 | $0.2000 | 0.0% |
| 2023-11-15 | $0.2000 | +5.3% |
| 2023-08-16 | $0.1900 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like XLU or VPU, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell CNP shares regardless of CenterPoint Energy, Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $4.8B of passive capital is structurally linked to CNP through 8 tracked ETFs. Index rebalances and ETF creation/redemption cycles can create noticeable volume spikes unrelated to company news.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in CenterPoint Energy, Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If CenterPoint Energy, Inc. (CNP) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies NEXTERA ENERGY INC (NEE) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with CNP. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 31 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
CNP Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 6 CNP shares, reducing daily market volatility.
CenterPoint Energy, Inc. (CNP) exerts notable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 2.0% of the State Street Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLU) and 1.8% of the VPU (VPU). Across 30 tracked ETFs, approximately 113M shares (17.2% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest CNP Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 30 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
CNP Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for CenterPoint Energy, Inc. over the past year sits near $37.99 (13% of 252-day volume). The current price of $41.73 trades 9.8% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target. The highly concentrated volume profile (13% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
CNP Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does CenterPoint Energy, Inc. convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
CenterPoint Energy, Inc. converts -65% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, negative FCF conversion — the company is consuming cash faster than it generates EBITDA, which is unsustainable long-term. The 165% reinvestment rate signals aggressive capacity expansion. However, the ROIC-WACC spread is negative (-2.2%), suggesting reinvested capital is destroying shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-12 | 370 | $42.27 | $15,639.9 |
| 2026-05-06 | 62 | $43.53 | $2,698.86 |
| 2026-04-23 | 15 | $42.12 | $631.8 |
| 2026-04-20 | 111 | $43.00 | $4,773 |
| 2026-04-15 | 1,992 | $42.90 | $85,456.8 |
| 2026-04-14 | 1 | $42.73 | $42.73 |
| 2026-04-07 | 19 | $43.59 | $828.21 |
| 2026-04-01 | 98,451 | $43.16 | $4.2M |
| 2026-03-31 | 2 | $42.99 | $85.98 |
| 2026-03-26 | 13,182 | $42.07 | $554,566.74 |
| 2026-03-25 | 65 | $41.88 | $2,722.2 |
| 2026-03-23 | 6 | $42.02 | $252.12 |
| 2026-03-20 | 322 | $43.25 | $13,926.5 |
| 2026-03-18 | 3,373 | $43.66 | $147,265.18 |
| 2026-03-16 | 13,680 | $44.01 | $602,056.8 |
| 2026-03-13 | 7,748 | $43.40 | $336,263.2 |
| 2026-03-10 | 19,968 | $43.48 | $868,208.64 |
| 2026-03-02 | 508 | $43.50 | $22,098 |
| 2026-02-25 | 4,048 | $42.80 | $173,254.4 |
| 2026-02-24 | 48,414 | $42.89 | $2.1M |
| 2026-02-18 | 861 | $42.65 | $36,721.65 |
| 2026-02-17 | 12,148 | $42.52 | $516,532.96 |
| 2026-02-12 | 1,347 | $41.05 | $55,294.35 |
| 2026-02-11 | 450 | $40.97 | $18,436.5 |
| 2026-02-10 | 792 | $40.25 | $31,878 |
| 2026-02-09 | 1,546 | $40.05 | $61,917.3 |
| 2026-02-05 | 437 | $40.35 | $17,632.95 |
| 2026-02-04 | 845 | $40.19 | $33,960.55 |
| 2026-02-02 | 24 | $39.69 | $952.56 |
| 2026-01-30 | 19 | $39.59 | $752.21 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| AEE | 0.776 | 0.799 | High co-movement |
| DTE | 0.758 | 0.788 | High co-movement |
| WEC | 0.757 | 0.790 | High co-movement |
| LNT | 0.731 | 0.792 | High co-movement |
| NI | 0.727 | 0.731 | High co-movement |
| DUK | 0.727 | 0.753 | High co-movement |
| ATO | 0.724 | 0.759 | High co-movement |
| CMS | 0.708 | 0.743 | High co-movement |
| PNW | 0.707 | 0.756 | High co-movement |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare CNP to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.