Cintas Corporation (CTAS)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicCTAS trades at 36.1x earnings, roughly in line with its sector average of 44.7x. Financial health metrics are strong: Piotroski 7/9, Altman Z 11.9 (above 3.0 safe zone threshold). DCF fair value of $40 implies 77% downside based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics of Cintas Corporation demonstrate a robust capital allocation framework, evidenced by an ROIC-WACC spread of +12.4%, indicating significant value creation potential relative to the cost of equity. This high return profile is primarily driven by exceptional operating leverage rather than financial engineering; the DuPont decomposition reveals that a 38.7% ROE stems from a commanding net margin of 17.5% and moderate asset turnover, supported by an equity multiplier of only 2.10x. Quality metrics further corroborate this stability, with a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 signaling strong financial health, while an Altman Z-Score of 13.0 places the firm well outside distress territory and a Beneish M-Score of -2.54 suggests earnings are unlikely to be manipulated by management.
Despite these operational strengths, current valuation metrics present a significant divergence from intrinsic value models. The stock trades at a premium P/E of 36.8x compared to its sector average of 32.1x, reflecting high market expectations for future growth that may not yet be realized given the recent 7.8% revenue expansion. More critically, discounted cash flow analysis implies a substantial disconnect between current pricing and fair value; with a DCF-derived price target of $42 representing a -75.3% downside from current levels, the market appears to have priced in an aggressive implied free cash flow growth rate of 26.5% over ten years that is not supported by historical performance or conservative modeling assumptions.
Risk-adjusted return factors suggest the stock has underperformed relative to its risk profile when evaluated through factor models. The annual Fama-French alpha stands at -12.21%, indicating persistent underperformance after adjusting for market, size, and value exposures, even as it maintains a positive tilt toward profitability (RMW: 0.312) and value characteristics (HML: 0.219). With neutral insider flow over the past ninety days, there is no visible internal signal validating or challenging these valuation disparities, leaving the discrepancy between the company's high-quality fundamentals and its steeply discounted DCF fair value as the primary area for investor scrutiny.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 8% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 8.8% | 10.8% | 12.8% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $48 | $36 | $28 |
| 3% | $55 | $40 | $31 |
| 4% | $65 | $45 | $34 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $173.31.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=10.8%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $40 (-77.4%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 54% below its 5-year average P/E of 81.0x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedCintas Corporation is currently trading at $171.36, a position that requires contextualization against its moving average envelope to assess relative value dynamics. Without specific data points defining the upper and lower bands of this envelope, it remains unclear whether the current price sits in an extended premium zone or has retreated toward a statistical mean following recent volatility. If the stock were trading near the midpoint between these dynamic averages, such positioning often suggests a state of equilibrium where immediate directional momentum may be muted, potentially favoring consolidation over breakout patterns. Conversely, if the price is hugging one extreme boundary significantly tighter than historical norms for this industrial sector, it could indicate a stretched valuation relative to recent trend parameters, theoretically increasing the probability of a corrective move back toward the centerline as market participants seek fairer entry points aligned with established averages. The absence of explicit band width data prevents a definitive calculation of mean-reversion potential at this specific moment in time. However, observing where $171.36 resides relative to these calculated thresholds offers insight into whether the asset is currently exhibiting characteristics of an overextended trend or a balanced correction. In technical analysis frameworks, prices deviating far from their central moving average often face gravitational pull back toward that mean, whereas those lingering near it typically display more stable, range-bound behavior until new catalysts emerge to shift the equilibrium. Investors analyzing this setup would need to compare the current distance of $171.36 against the specific envelope limits to determine if
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-15 | $0.4500 | 0.0% |
| 2026-02-13 | $0.4500 | 0.0% |
| 2025-11-14 | $0.4500 | 0.0% |
| 2025-08-15 | $0.4500 | +15.4% |
| 2025-05-15 | $0.3900 | 0.0% |
| 2025-02-14 | $0.3900 | 0.0% |
| 2024-11-15 | $0.3900 | 0.0% |
| 2024-08-15 | $0.3900 | +15.6% |
| 2024-05-14 | $0.3375 | 0.0% |
| 2024-02-14 | $0.3375 | 0.0% |
| 2023-11-14 | $0.3375 | 0.0% |
| 2023-08-14 | $0.3375 | +17.4% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like NOBL or VFQY, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell CTAS shares regardless of Cintas Corporation's individual fundamentals. We estimate $10.0B of passive capital is structurally linked to CTAS through 8 tracked ETFs. This substantial passive exposure means that ETF inflows and outflows — not company fundamentals — can dominate daily volume on this stock.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Cintas Corporation to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Cintas Corporation (CTAS) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies CATERPILLAR INC (CAT) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with CTAS. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 34 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
CTAS Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 7 CTAS shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Cintas Corporation (CTAS) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 1.4% of the ProShares S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats ETF (NOBL) and 1.4% of the VFQY (VFQY). Across 34 tracked ETFs, approximately 58M shares (14.5% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest CTAS Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 34 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
CTAS Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Cintas Corporation over the past year sits near $186.12 (11% of 252-day volume). The current price of $173.31 sits 6.9% below the POC — suggesting potential mean-reversion upside if institutional demand reasserts at this level.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
CTAS Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Cintas Corporation convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Cintas Corporation converts 61% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, an exceptional conversion rate indicating an asset-light business model with minimal capital reinvestment drag. The positive ROIC-WACC spread of 12.0% confirms that reinvested capital creates shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-12 | 3 | $164.67 | $494.01 |
| 2026-05-04 | 3 | $169.61 | $508.83 |
| 2026-04-24 | 1 | $177.62 | $177.62 |
| 2026-04-22 | 28 | $176.26 | $4,935.28 |
| 2026-04-21 | 155 | $178.69 | $27,696.95 |
| 2026-04-17 | 4 | $177.52 | $710.08 |
| 2026-04-16 | 175 | $176.46 | $30,880.5 |
| 2026-04-15 | 3 | $176.14 | $528.42 |
| 2026-04-14 | 616 | $175.68 | $108,218.88 |
| 2026-04-13 | 3,756 | $174.93 | $657,037.08 |
| 2026-04-10 | 3,722 | $174.15 | $648,186.3 |
| 2026-04-06 | 42 | $174.34 | $7,322.28 |
| 2026-04-01 | 10 | $169.14 | $1,691.4 |
| 2026-03-25 | 35 | $178.13 | $6,234.55 |
| 2026-03-23 | 105 | $179.34 | $18,830.7 |
| 2026-03-20 | 4,139 | $181.83 | $752,594.37 |
| 2026-03-13 | 18,213 | $193.26 | $3.5M |
| 2026-03-12 | 31,248 | $198.34 | $6.2M |
| 2026-03-06 | 498 | $204.53 | $101,855.94 |
| 2026-03-05 | 1,429 | $200.12 | $285,971.48 |
| 2026-03-02 | 1,226 | $201.13 | $246,585.38 |
| 2026-02-23 | 800 | $200.02 | $160,016 |
| 2026-02-18 | 40 | $194.92 | $7,796.8 |
| 2026-02-13 | 5,000 | $196.10 | $980,500 |
| 2026-02-12 | 100 | $200.36 | $20,036 |
| 2026-02-09 | 35 | $195.87 | $6,855.45 |
| 2026-01-30 | 1 | $189.65 | $189.65 |
| 2026-01-26 | 3 | $192.96 | $578.88 |
| 2026-01-20 | 101 | $195.42 | $19,737.42 |
| 2026-01-14 | 3 | $192.72 | $578.16 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| TRV | 0.546 | 0.382 | Moderate |
| VRTPX | 0.537 | 0.437 | Moderate |
| HIG | 0.512 | 0.330 | Moderate |
| MMC | 0.486 | 0.336 | Moderate |
| ECL | 0.479 | 0.447 | Moderate |
| L | 0.470 | 0.331 | Moderate |
| ITW | 0.459 | 0.468 | Moderate |
| CINF | 0.453 | 0.286 | Moderate |
| ADP | 0.448 | 0.302 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare CTAS to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.