Eversource Energy (ES)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicAt 14.6x earnings — a 40% discount to the sector average of 24.4x — ES is in the lower valuation range. Strong operational fundamentals (Piotroski 7/9) with Altman Z of 0.8.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics of Eversource Energy reveal a distinct divergence between operational leverage and capital efficiency. While the DuPont decomposition indicates that Return on Equity is primarily driven by high financial leverage (Equity Multiplier at 3.90x) rather than organic margin expansion or asset turnover, the underlying profitability metrics are robust with an 84.7% gross margin and a net margin of 12.5%. This growth trajectory supports a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, signaling strong financial health relative to peers; however, this is counterbalanced by a negative ROIC-WACC spread of -2.4%, suggesting the company currently destroys value when accounting for its cost of capital. The Altman Z-Score of 0.8 raises liquidity concerns despite a low Beneish M-Score (-2.62) that effectively rules out earnings manipulation, creating a complex picture where operational scale is not translating into efficient risk-adjusted returns.
Valuation metrics suggest the market assigns a significant premium to this utility stock relative to its sector peers and historical norms. Trading at 15.2x forward earnings, the multiple appears compressed compared to the sector average of 24.2x, yet it remains elevated given the negative spread between ROIC and WACC which typically warrants a discount in value-oriented models. The implied growth assumptions embedded within these multiples appear aggressive when weighed against the weak profitability factor (RMW) score of -0.383 relative to Fama-French factors, indicating that current pricing may not fully reflect the drag on capital allocation efficiency.
Risk and reward dynamics are further complicated by conflicting alpha signals and insider behavior. The stock exhibits a strong value tilt with a Value Factor (HML) of 0.317 and has generated substantial positive momentum via a Fama-French Alpha of 14.14% annually, yet this outperformance coincides with net insider selling totaling $2.6 million over the last ninety days. This divergence between quantitative alpha generation and active ownership reduction suggests that while statistical models favor the asset's current positioning, internal stakeholders may be recalibrating their exposure to potential downside risks inherent in its capital structure.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 11% above its 5-year average P/E of 13.9x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedEversource Energy currently trades at $68.81, a price point that sits within the broader context of its historical performance rather than signaling an immediate directional shift based solely on this figure. In utility sectors, institutional positioning often lags behind short-term volatility, preferring stability over rapid momentum changes; therefore, the current level may represent a zone where larger market participants are evaluating entry points or adjusting existing allocations without necessarily triggering aggressive volume spikes associated with major trend reversals. The absence of extreme price dislocation suggests that sophisticated players might be treating this valuation as part of their long-term holding strategy rather than executing high-velocity trades aimed at quick profits. Volume trends in such environments typically reflect the steady accumulation or distribution phases characteristic of regulated utility stocks, where institutional behavior tends to prioritize capital preservation and dividend yield over speculative price action. If volume remains moderate around these levels, it could indicate that large entities are consolidating their positions rather than initiating new directional bets, effectively waiting for clearer macroeconomic signals before committing significant additional capital. The technical structure at $68.81 does not inherently force a specific narrative of aggressive buying or selling but instead highlights a period where institutional sentiment appears balanced, potentially leading to sideways movement as different market actors negotiate their respective risk appetites and allocation targets within the sector.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-18 | $0.7880 | 0.0% |
| 2026-03-05 | $0.7880 | +4.6% |
| 2025-12-17 | $0.7530 | 0.0% |
| 2025-09-22 | $0.7530 | 0.0% |
| 2025-05-15 | $0.7530 | 0.0% |
| 2025-03-04 | $0.7530 | +5.3% |
| 2024-12-18 | $0.7150 | 0.0% |
| 2024-09-23 | $0.7150 | 0.0% |
| 2024-05-15 | $0.7150 | 0.0% |
| 2024-03-04 | $0.7150 | +5.9% |
| 2023-12-15 | $0.6750 | 0.0% |
| 2023-09-22 | $0.6750 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like XLU or VPU, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell ES shares regardless of Eversource Energy's individual fundamentals. We estimate $5.0B of passive capital is structurally linked to ES through 8 tracked ETFs. This substantial passive exposure means that ETF inflows and outflows — not company fundamentals — can dominate daily volume on this stock.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Eversource Energy to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Eversource Energy (ES) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies NEXTERA ENERGY INC (NEE) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 2 ETFs with ES. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 31 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
ES Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 5 ES shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Eversource Energy (ES) exerts notable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 1.9% of the State Street Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLU) and 1.6% of the VPU (VPU). Across 31 tracked ETFs, approximately 74M shares (19.7% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest ES Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 31 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
ES Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Eversource Energy over the past year sits near $63.15 (8% of 252-day volume). The current price of $68.51 trades 8.5% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
ES Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Eversource Energy convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Eversource Energy converts -1% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, negative FCF conversion — the company is consuming cash faster than it generates EBITDA, which is unsustainable long-term. The 101% reinvestment rate signals aggressive capacity expansion. However, the ROIC-WACC spread is negative (-2.4%), suggesting reinvested capital is destroying shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | 6,981 | $68.25 | $476,453.25 |
| 2026-05-13 | 16,656 | $68.73 | $1.1M |
| 2026-05-11 | 359 | $66.51 | $23,877.09 |
| 2026-05-05 | 162,508 | $69.44 | $11.3M |
| 2026-04-30 | 1,665 | $68.72 | $114,418.8 |
| 2026-04-22 | 30,307 | $66.82 | $2.0M |
| 2026-04-20 | 6,036 | $69.25 | $417,993 |
| 2026-04-17 | 29,722 | $69.18 | $2.1M |
| 2026-04-15 | 3 | $69.01 | $207.03 |
| 2026-04-08 | 53,384 | $69.49 | $3.7M |
| 2026-04-07 | 40,768 | $69.44 | $2.8M |
| 2026-04-02 | 268,260 | $69.65 | $18.7M |
| 2026-04-01 | 211,284 | $69.28 | $14.6M |
| 2026-03-31 | 115,072 | $68.41 | $7.9M |
| 2026-03-30 | 72,241 | $67.59 | $4.9M |
| 2026-03-27 | 43,390 | $67.96 | $2.9M |
| 2026-03-25 | 38 | $67.47 | $2,563.86 |
| 2026-03-20 | 32,196 | $69.62 | $2.2M |
| 2026-03-18 | 16,872 | $72.44 | $1.2M |
| 2026-03-16 | 13,441 | $73.10 | $982,537.1 |
| 2026-03-13 | 9,026 | $73.21 | $660,793.46 |
| 2026-03-12 | 14,839 | $73.94 | $1.1M |
| 2026-03-10 | 3,678 | $73.85 | $271,620.3 |
| 2026-03-09 | 1 | $74.44 | $74.44 |
| 2026-03-06 | 34,294 | $73.87 | $2.5M |
| 2026-03-03 | 11 | $74.42 | $818.62 |
| 2026-02-25 | 4,068 | $75.13 | $305,628.84 |
| 2026-02-23 | 116,974 | $73.56 | $8.6M |
| 2026-02-20 | 103,516 | $73.67 | $7.6M |
| 2026-02-19 | 8,982 | $71.72 | $644,189.04 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| D | 0.572 | 0.498 | Moderate |
| DTE | 0.562 | 0.514 | Moderate |
| LNT | 0.561 | 0.513 | Moderate |
| CMS | 0.555 | 0.508 | Moderate |
| AEE | 0.539 | 0.507 | Moderate |
| PNW | 0.536 | 0.482 | Moderate |
| EVRG | 0.534 | 0.509 | Moderate |
| SO | 0.531 | 0.487 | Moderate |
| PPL | 0.522 | 0.506 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare ES to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.