EXEL (EXEL)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicFinancial health metrics are strong: Piotroski 7/9, Altman Z 12.1 (above 3.0 safe zone threshold).
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe capital allocation efficiency of EXEL demonstrates robust fundamental quality, evidenced by a 21.0% ROIC-WACC spread that signals substantial value creation potential relative to the cost of equity and debt. This high-return profile is underpinned by exceptional profitability metrics, including a net margin of 33.7% and an industry-leading gross margin of 96.4%, which dominate the DuPont decomposition alongside moderate revenue growth of 7.0%. Integrity assessments further reinforce this quality thesis; a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 indicates strong financial health, while an Altman Z-Score of 12.1 places the entity far outside the distress zone and a Beneish M-Score of -2.60 suggests low probability of earnings manipulation.
Valuation metrics present a nuanced picture where current multiples may appear compressed relative to historical norms or sector peers given the premium nature of the margins, yet the market price appears misaligned with intrinsic value models. A DCF analysis implies a fair value of $166, suggesting that at current pricing levels, the stock could be undervalued if future cash flow assumptions hold steady against its 7% growth trajectory and superior return characteristics. This discrepancy between implied fair value and market reality indicates that investors are not fully pricing in the durability of these high-margin operations or the efficiency of capital deployment.
The convergence of a low Beneish M-Score, high Z-Score, and significant ROIC spread creates a risk-reward profile where downside protection is theoretically strong due to financial stability metrics. However, the 7% revenue growth rate acts as a constraint on total addressable market expansion, potentially limiting upside velocity compared to hyper-growth peers despite superior unit economics. Investors must weigh whether the current valuation adequately compensates for this moderate growth ceiling against the safety margin provided by the company's fortress-like balance sheet scores and profitability depth.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
InteractiveSensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 6% | 7.9% | 9.9% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $215 | $142 | $104 |
| 3% | $280 | $166 | $116 |
| 4% | $410 | $204 | $132 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs —.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=7.9%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $166 (+0.0%). Not investment advice.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
Balance Sheet Health
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like XBI or MDYG, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell EXEL shares regardless of EXEL's individual fundamentals. We estimate $809M of passive capital is structurally linked to EXEL through 8 tracked ETFs. Passive flows have a limited but growing influence on EXEL's daily trading dynamics.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in EXEL to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If EXEL (EXEL) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies FLEX LTD (FLEX) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 2 ETFs with EXEL. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 15 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
EXEL Ownership Dynamics
ETFs with Highest EXEL Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 16 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
EXEL Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does EXEL convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
EXEL converts 92% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, an exceptional conversion rate indicating an asset-light business model with minimal capital reinvestment drag. The positive ROIC-WACC spread of 21.0% confirms that reinvested capital creates shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-07 | 2,151 | $43.98 | $94,600.98 |
| 2026-03-31 | 7,235 | $41.95 | $303,508.25 |
| 2026-03-20 | 515 | $41.26 | $21,248.9 |
| 2026-03-02 | 251 | $44.06 | $11,059.06 |
| 2026-02-26 | 357 | $44.75 | $15,975.75 |
| 2026-02-25 | 204 | $45.14 | $9,208.56 |
| 2026-02-23 | 80 | $43.63 | $3,490.4 |
| 2026-02-11 | 195 | $42.98 | $8,381.1 |
| 2026-02-09 | 97,101 | $43.90 | $4.3M |
| 2026-02-03 | 22,890 | $42.81 | $979,920.9 |
| 2026-01-20 | 1,100 | $43.96 | $48,356 |
| 2026-01-13 | 60,641 | $44.06 | $2.7M |
| 2026-01-07 | 1 | $43.68 | $43.68 |
| 2026-01-02 | 11,903 | $43.83 | $521,708.49 |
| 2025-12-17 | 207,730 | $41.60 | $8.6M |
| 2025-12-12 | 48,231 | $41.39 | $2.0M |
| 2025-11-21 | 27,716 | $41.78 | $1.2M |
| 2025-11-14 | 1,246 | $42.35 | $52,768.1 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Compare EXEL to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: N/A.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.