EXEL (EXEL)

$11.2B
Market Cap
15.1
P/E Ratio
0.41
Beta
Dividend Yield
Piotroski 7/9Altman Z 12.1 SafeBeneish M -2.60 CleanROIC−WACC +21.0%

Quantitative Summary

Deterministic

Financial health metrics are strong: Piotroski 7/9, Altman Z 12.1 (above 3.0 safe zone threshold).

Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.

Algorithmic Teardown

AI-Generated

The capital allocation efficiency of EXEL demonstrates robust fundamental quality, evidenced by a 21.0% ROIC-WACC spread that signals substantial value creation potential relative to the cost of equity and debt. This high-return profile is underpinned by exceptional profitability metrics, including a net margin of 33.7% and an industry-leading gross margin of 96.4%, which dominate the DuPont decomposition alongside moderate revenue growth of 7.0%. Integrity assessments further reinforce this quality thesis; a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 indicates strong financial health, while an Altman Z-Score of 12.1 places the entity far outside the distress zone and a Beneish M-Score of -2.60 suggests low probability of earnings manipulation.

Valuation metrics present a nuanced picture where current multiples may appear compressed relative to historical norms or sector peers given the premium nature of the margins, yet the market price appears misaligned with intrinsic value models. A DCF analysis implies a fair value of $166, suggesting that at current pricing levels, the stock could be undervalued if future cash flow assumptions hold steady against its 7% growth trajectory and superior return characteristics. This discrepancy between implied fair value and market reality indicates that investors are not fully pricing in the durability of these high-margin operations or the efficiency of capital deployment.

The convergence of a low Beneish M-Score, high Z-Score, and significant ROIC spread creates a risk-reward profile where downside protection is theoretically strong due to financial stability metrics. However, the 7% revenue growth rate acts as a constraint on total addressable market expansion, potentially limiting upside velocity compared to hyper-growth peers despite superior unit economics. Investors must weigh whether the current valuation adequately compensates for this moderate growth ceiling against the safety margin provided by the company's fortress-like balance sheet scores and profitability depth.

Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.

DCF Sandbox

Interactive

Sensitivity Matrix

TG ↓ / WACC →6%7.9%9.9%
2%$215$142$104
3%$280$166$116
4%$410$204$132

Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs .

Pre-computed DCF: WACC=7.9%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $166 (+0.0%). Not investment advice.

Price Chart with Moving Averages

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SMA 50 SMA 200

Quant Health Deep Dive

7/9
Piotroski F-Score
Strong — high operational efficiency and profitability signals
12.1
Altman Z-Score
Safe Zone — above 3.0 threshold per academic model. Thresholds: >3 safe, 1.8–3 grey, <1.8 distress.
-2.60
Beneish M-Score
Below threshold — no statistical earnings quality concern per Beneish model. Threshold: <-2.22 = below threshold.

Profitability & Value Creation

96.4%
Gross Margin
33.7%
Net Margin
28.9%
ROIC
7.9%
WACC
ROIC − WACC Spread: +21.0%— Positive value creation spread.
+7.0%
Revenue Growth (YoY)
+50.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
844.3M
Free Cash Flow

Balance Sheet Health

0.32x
Debt / Equity
3.56x
Current Ratio
-0.3x
Net Debt / EBITDA
7.72%
FCF Yield
921.8M
EBITDA

Earnings Surprise History

Q4
✓ Beat
Est: $0.44
Act: $0.62
+39.8%
Q3
✓ Beat
Est: $0.65
Act: $0.75
+16.2%
Q2
✓ Beat
Est: $0.67
Act: $0.78
+16.2%
Q1
✓ Beat
Est: $0.81
Act: $0.94
+16.2%

EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.

Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)

How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.

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Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)

How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.

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Rolling Beta Market (β = 1.0)

Fundamentals

10.7
Forward P/E
PEG Ratio
5.09
Price/Book
3M
Avg Volume
$49.62
52W High
$32.38
52W Low
52W Range Position

Passive Flow Attribution

ETF Draft Effect
$809M
Tracked Passive Exposure
8
ETFs Holding EXEL
0.19%
Avg Weight in ETFs
$433B
Total ETF AUM

When investors buy or sell ETFs like XBI or MDYG, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell EXEL shares regardless of EXEL's individual fundamentals. We estimate $809M of passive capital is structurally linked to EXEL through 8 tracked ETFs. Passive flows have a limited but growing influence on EXEL's daily trading dynamics.

Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.

ETF Contagion Visualizer

Simulate a price drop in EXEL to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.

EXEL Shock
-0%
Est. Passive Redemption
$0
Systemic Risk
STABLE
EXELEpicenterVBETFVXFETFVONGETFFLEXMed RiskUTHRLow RiskNBIXLow RiskFTILow RiskARWRLow Risk
EXEL Price Drop (%)0

If EXEL (EXEL) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies FLEX LTD (FLEX) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 2 ETFs with EXEL. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.

Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 15 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.

EXEL Ownership Dynamics

Ticker
EXEL

Float lock-up computed from 16 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).

EXEL Capital Efficiency

How efficiently does EXEL convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.

Free Cash Flow
$844M
EBITDA
$922M
FCF Conversion
92%
Reinvestment Rate
8%
92% of EBITDA → Free Cash
0% (cash burn)25% (low)50% (efficient)100% (pure cash)
ROIC
28.9%
ROIC − WACC Spread
21.0%

EXEL converts 92% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, an exceptional conversion rate indicating an asset-light business model with minimal capital reinvestment drag. The positive ROIC-WACC spread of 21.0% confirms that reinvested capital creates shareholder value.

Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.

Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History

SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.

DateFailed SharesClose PriceNotional Value
2026-04-072,151$43.98$94,600.98
2026-03-317,235$41.95$303,508.25
2026-03-20515$41.26$21,248.9
2026-03-02251$44.06$11,059.06
2026-02-26357$44.75$15,975.75
2026-02-25204$45.14$9,208.56
2026-02-2380$43.63$3,490.4
2026-02-11195$42.98$8,381.1
2026-02-0997,101$43.90$4.3M
2026-02-0322,890$42.81$979,920.9
2026-01-201,100$43.96$48,356
2026-01-1360,641$44.06$2.7M
2026-01-071$43.68$43.68
2026-01-0211,903$43.83$521,708.49
2025-12-17207,730$41.60$8.6M
2025-12-1248,231$41.39$2.0M
2025-11-2127,716$41.78$1.2M
2025-11-141,246$42.35$52,768.1

Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.

Compare EXEL to Peers

Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: N/A.

SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.