Fiserv, Inc. (FISV)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicFinancial health is average: Piotroski 5/9, Altman Z 1.3. DCF fair value of $152 implies 159% upside from current prices based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics of Fiserv, Inc. present a nuanced profile where high profitability metrics coexist with modest capital efficiency and elevated financial leverage. While the company demonstrates robust net margins at 16.4% driven by strong gross margins near 59%, this operational strength is partially offset by low asset turnover of just 0.26x. The resulting Return on Equity of 13.5% relies heavily on an equity multiplier of 3.10x, indicating significant leverage usage rather than organic capital efficiency. This structural reliance is underscored by a razor-thin ROIC-WACC spread of only +0.4%, suggesting the firm generates returns that barely exceed its cost of capital. Compounding these concerns are distress signals from solvency and quality frameworks: an Altman Z-Score of 1.3 flags potential bankruptcy risk, while a Piotroski F-Score of 5/9 reflects moderate financial health relative to peers. Conversely, the Beneish M-Score of -2.65 provides some reassurance regarding earnings manipulation risks.
Valuation metrics appear deeply divergent from traditional fundamental indicators and historical norms. The current price-to-earnings ratio of 8.9x sits at a significant discount when weighed against implied growth assumptions derived from a DCF model, which projects negative free cash flow growth over the next decade yet suggests substantial upside to $151 per share. This discrepancy implies the market may be pricing in severe execution risks or terminal value constraints that contradict the theoretical fair value calculation. The disconnect between the low multiple and the expansive implied valuation gap highlights a critical divergence where current pricing does not necessarily reflect intrinsic worth based on standard discounted cash flow methodologies, leaving the true investment case ambiguous without further qualitative context.
Risk-adjusted performance data reveals significant headwinds despite specific factor tilts. Although the stock exhibits a positive exposure to the value factor with an HML score of 0.517, this is counterbalanced by a negative profitability factor (RMW) of -2.241, indicating underperformance relative to high-quality earnings peers over recent periods. Furthermore, the annual Fama-French alpha stands at -27.19%, signaling that the stock has systematically underperformed its benchmark after adjusting for market and size risks. With insider activity remaining neutral over the last 90 days, there is no clear signal of management conviction to offset these quantitative performance deficits.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 4% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 6% | 7.7% | 9.7% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $194 | $124 | $82 |
| 3% | $261 | $152 | $96 |
| 4% | $395 | $195 | $114 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $56.46.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=7.7%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $152 (+158.9%). Not investment advice.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedFiserv, Inc. is currently trading at $56.03, a price point that requires contextual analysis against its moving averages to determine the prevailing trend direction and momentum strength. Without specific average data points provided in this snapshot, the immediate assessment relies on interpreting how current pricing aligns with historical support or resistance levels inherent to longer-term trends. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) serves as a critical gauge for short-term velocity; if values hover near overbought thresholds, it may indicate potential exhaustion in upward momentum, whereas readings approaching oversold zones could suggest accumulating pressure from buyers. In the absence of explicit moving average crossings or RSI numerical values, the technical picture remains neutral regarding immediate directional bias. The current price action does not inherently confirm a breakout above key resistance or a breakdown below significant support without further comparative data. Traders should monitor whether subsequent sessions sustain prices relative to these dynamic averages to validate any emerging trend. A sustained position above long-term moving averages would typically signal bullish alignment, while a drop below them might imply shifting momentum toward the downside. Ultimately, this snapshot highlights the necessity of integrating price levels with volatility indicators for a complete technical assessment. The interplay between the $56.03 entry point and underlying trend lines will dictate whether short-term momentum accelerates or stabilizes. Observers must watch for confirmation signals that clarify if the current market structure supports continued appreciation or corrective movement, ensuring decisions are grounded in evolving chart patterns rather than isolated price figures
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like VFVA or VOE, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell FISV shares regardless of Fiserv, Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $4.1B of passive capital is structurally linked to FISV through 8 tracked ETFs. Index rebalances and ETF creation/redemption cycles can create noticeable volume spikes unrelated to company news.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Fiserv, Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Fiserv, Inc. (FISV) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC CL B (BRK.B) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with FISV. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 27 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
FISV Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 7 FISV shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Fiserv, Inc. (FISV) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 0.6% of the VFVA (VFVA) and 0.5% of the VOE (VOE). Across 28 tracked ETFs, approximately 73M shares (13.6% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest FISV Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 28 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
FISV Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Fiserv, Inc. over the past year sits near $67.82 (30% of 252-day volume). The current price of $56.46 sits 16.8% below the POC — suggesting potential mean-reversion upside if institutional demand reasserts at this level. The highly concentrated volume profile (30% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
FISV Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Fiserv, Inc. convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Fiserv, Inc. converts 48% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a healthy conversion rate indicating efficient capital management — the business generates substantial cash after reinvestment. The 52% reinvestment rate signals aggressive capacity expansion. The positive ROIC-WACC spread of 0.4% confirms that reinvested capital creates shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-08 | 29,941 | $56.81 | $1.7M |
| 2026-05-04 | 316 | $62.14 | $19,636.24 |
| 2026-05-01 | 2,696 | $62.65 | $168,904.4 |
| 2026-04-20 | 727 | $63.97 | $46,506.19 |
| 2026-04-17 | 97,123 | $62.44 | $6.1M |
| 2026-04-16 | 1 | $61.29 | $61.29 |
| 2026-04-15 | 77,236 | $59.02 | $4.6M |
| 2026-04-13 | 3,618 | $56.09 | $202,933.62 |
| 2026-04-09 | 1,938 | $56.63 | $109,748.94 |
| 2026-04-06 | 12,311 | $56.16 | $691,385.76 |
| 2026-03-30 | 6,676 | $53.90 | $359,836.4 |
| 2026-03-25 | 54 | $56.34 | $3,042.36 |
| 2026-03-23 | 43 | $57.07 | $2,454.01 |
| 2026-03-19 | 5,347 | $57.06 | $305,099.82 |
| 2026-02-27 | 1,331 | $61.89 | $82,375.59 |
| 2026-02-26 | 1 | $61.61 | $61.61 |
| 2026-02-12 | 1,410 | $62.11 | $87,575.1 |
| 2026-02-10 | 224,080 | $60.14 | $13.5M |
| 2026-02-04 | 1,863 | $58.12 | $108,277.56 |
| 2026-01-30 | 76 | $63.43 | $4,820.68 |
| 2026-01-23 | 104,658 | $67.40 | $7.1M |
| 2026-01-21 | 108,194 | $64.49 | $7.0M |
| 2026-01-20 | 100 | $66.29 | $6,629 |
| 2026-01-14 | 49,793 | $66.75 | $3.3M |
| 2026-01-13 | 179,942 | $68.20 | $12.3M |
| 2026-01-12 | 179,990 | $69.85 | $12.6M |
| 2026-01-07 | 52 | $68.76 | $3,575.52 |
| 2025-12-29 | 6,825 | $67.50 | $460,687.5 |
| 2025-12-24 | 5,711 | $67.72 | $386,748.92 |
| 2025-12-22 | 2,600 | $67.94 | $176,644 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| VRNS | 0.649 | 0.778 | Moderate |
| ADP | 0.466 | 0.591 | Moderate |
| GRMN | 0.420 | 0.573 | Moderate |
| PAYX | 0.409 | 0.524 | Moderate |
| SW | 0.397 | 0.528 | Moderate |
| FIS | 0.377 | 0.479 | Moderate |
| CZR | 0.368 | 0.445 | Moderate |
| TOST | 0.367 | 0.447 | Moderate |
| VRSK | 0.365 | 0.430 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare FISV to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.