Gilead Sciences, Inc. (GILD)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicAt 18.3x earnings — a 72% discount to the sector average of 65.2x — GILD is in the lower valuation range. Financial health metrics are strong: Piotroski 8/9, Altman Z 4.4 (above 3.0 safe zone threshold). DCF fair value of $190 implies 37% upside from current prices based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedGilead Sciences exhibits robust fundamental quality characterized by a substantial ROIC-WACC spread of +11.2%, indicating efficient capital allocation well above the cost of equity. The DuPont decomposition reveals that its 37.6% return on equity is primarily driven by exceptional net margins at 28.9%, supported by moderate leverage rather than high asset turnover or operational velocity, which sits at just 0.50x. This margin-driven profitability profile is reinforced by a strong Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 and an Altman Z-Score of 4.5, signaling low distress risk and financial stability, while the negative Beneish M-Score of -2.45 suggests earnings are unlikely to be manipulated. Despite these operational strengths, revenue growth remains subdued at 2.4% year-over-year, creating a divergence between high profitability metrics and top-line expansion.
Valuation analysis presents a compelling discrepancy between current market pricing and intrinsic value models. The stock trades at a P/E of 20.6x, which is significantly compressed relative to the sector average of 30.8x, suggesting potential undervaluation given its superior margin generation compared to peers. A DCF model implies a fair value of $225, translating to approximately 61.3% upside from current levels; however, this valuation relies on an implied free cash flow growth rate of -0.5% over the next decade, highlighting that the premium is priced into future recovery rather than sustained high-growth acceleration. The market appears to be pricing in a stagnation thesis that may not fully account for the company's capital efficiency and margin durability.
From a risk-reward perspective, the data presents mixed signals regarding momentum versus value factors. While the stock demonstrates significant Fama-French alpha of 19.90% annually, indicating strong outperformance independent of market style, its Value Factor (HML) is neutral at 0.019 and Profitability Factor (RMW) is slightly negative at -0.035. This suggests the stock's recent performance may be driven by specific idiosyncratic factors rather than broad-based value or profitability trends typically associated with long-term outperformance. Furthermore, insider activity over the last 90 days shows net selling of approximately $42.8 million, which contrasts with the attractive valuation metrics and warrants scrutiny regarding management's view on near-term prospects despite the solid underlying fundamentals.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 2% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 6% | 7.5% | 9.5% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $226 | $159 | $113 |
| 3% | $295 | $190 | $128 |
| 4% | $433 | $239 | $148 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $127.57.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=7.5%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $190 (+36.8%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 16% above its 5-year average P/E of 17.7x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedGilead Sciences, Inc. is currently trading at $130.69, a position that warrants examination against its moving average envelope to assess relative value and potential mean-reversion dynamics. Without specific bandwidth parameters or the exact location of the upper and lower bands relative to this price point, the immediate implication hinges on whether current valuation sits near historical extremes or within the central congestion zone defined by recent volatility. If the stock price approaches the outer boundaries of its standard deviation envelope while exhibiting signs of exhaustion in momentum oscillators, it may be statistically positioning itself for a reversion toward the mean. Conversely, if $130.69 remains comfortably nested between the signal lines and the mid-band, the asset suggests continued adherence to its prevailing trend rather than an imminent correction or rally driven by overextension. The healthcare sector context adds another layer of interpretation, as defensive characteristics often influence how price deviates from statistical norms during market stress periods. Observers might note that a deviation at this level could signal either a temporary dislocation awaiting equilibrium restoration or the early stages of a sustained directional move if volume confirms the breakout. The absence of immediate reversal signals in isolation implies that the current pricing structure does not inherently demand an extreme contrarian stance, though traders should monitor whether subsequent sessions push the price further toward the envelope limits to confirm any shift in the probability distribution. Ultimately, the data presents a snapshot where the relationship between spot price and historical averages determines the likelihood of future range contraction or expansion.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-13 | $0.8200 | +3.8% |
| 2025-12-15 | $0.7900 | 0.0% |
| 2025-09-15 | $0.7900 | 0.0% |
| 2025-06-13 | $0.7900 | 0.0% |
| 2025-03-14 | $0.7900 | +2.6% |
| 2024-12-13 | $0.7700 | 0.0% |
| 2024-09-13 | $0.7700 | 0.0% |
| 2024-06-14 | $0.7700 | 0.0% |
| 2024-03-14 | $0.7700 | +2.7% |
| 2023-12-14 | $0.7500 | 0.0% |
| 2023-09-14 | $0.7500 | 0.0% |
| 2023-06-14 | $0.7500 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like IBB or XLV, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell GILD shares regardless of Gilead Sciences, Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $24.0B of passive capital is structurally linked to GILD through 8 tracked ETFs. This substantial passive exposure means that ETF inflows and outflows — not company fundamentals — can dominate daily volume on this stock.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Gilead Sciences, Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Gilead Sciences, Inc. (GILD) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 3 ETFs with GILD. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 40 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
GILD Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 7 GILD shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Gilead Sciences, Inc. (GILD) exerts notable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 7.3% of the IBB (IBB) and 3.0% of the State Street Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLV). Across 39 tracked ETFs, approximately 189M shares (15.2% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest GILD Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 39 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
GILD Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Gilead Sciences, Inc. over the past year sits near $112.55 (11% of 252-day volume). The current price of $127.57 trades 13.3% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
GILD Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Gilead Sciences, Inc. convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Gilead Sciences, Inc. converts 70% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, an exceptional conversion rate indicating an asset-light business model with minimal capital reinvestment drag. The positive ROIC-WACC spread of 10.6% confirms that reinvested capital creates shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-12 | 7,252 | $133.52 | $968,287.04 |
| 2026-05-11 | 21,146 | $131.33 | $2.8M |
| 2026-05-08 | 13,968 | $134.06 | $1.9M |
| 2026-05-07 | 976 | $136.30 | $133,028.8 |
| 2026-05-04 | 6,552 | $131.65 | $862,570.8 |
| 2026-04-29 | 2 | $129.26 | $258.52 |
| 2026-04-24 | 3,148 | $133.64 | $420,698.72 |
| 2026-04-20 | 400 | $137.64 | $55,056 |
| 2026-04-17 | 4 | $138.55 | $554.2 |
| 2026-04-15 | 11 | $140.45 | $1,544.95 |
| 2026-04-14 | 690 | $139.03 | $95,930.7 |
| 2026-04-10 | 644 | $142.09 | $91,505.96 |
| 2026-04-08 | 5 | $138.80 | $694 |
| 2026-04-07 | 41 | $140.13 | $5,745.33 |
| 2026-04-06 | 9,676 | $139.71 | $1.4M |
| 2026-04-02 | 43 | $140.30 | $6,032.9 |
| 2026-03-30 | 1 | $134.25 | $134.25 |
| 2026-03-25 | 124 | $138.11 | $17,125.64 |
| 2026-03-19 | 1 | $141.29 | $141.29 |
| 2026-03-13 | 1,887 | $145.21 | $274,011.27 |
| 2026-03-11 | 31,755 | $148.56 | $4.7M |
| 2026-03-06 | 544 | $145.14 | $78,956.16 |
| 2026-03-04 | 4,937 | $147.83 | $729,836.71 |
| 2026-03-03 | 127 | $150.03 | $19,053.81 |
| 2026-02-23 | 130,529 | $151.40 | $19.8M |
| 2026-02-20 | 9,977 | $151.12 | $1.5M |
| 2026-02-19 | 61 | $152.74 | $9,317.14 |
| 2026-02-18 | 100 | $155.27 | $15,527 |
| 2026-02-06 | 25,326 | $149.37 | $3.8M |
| 2026-02-02 | 300 | $141.95 | $42,585 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
SEC Comment Letters
SEC correspondence with the company regarding their filings. Comment letters often flag disclosure deficiencies, accounting concerns, or material omissions.
Source: SEC EDGAR correspondence. Comment letters are public records of SEC staff review of company filings.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| AMGN | 0.497 | 0.471 | Moderate |
| BMY | 0.428 | 0.299 | Moderate |
| ABBV | 0.411 | 0.415 | Moderate |
| BDX | 0.405 | 0.329 | Moderate |
| AZN | 0.394 | 0.449 | Moderate |
| MRK | 0.389 | 0.354 | Moderate |
| VRTX | 0.389 | 0.447 | Moderate |
| JNJ | 0.380 | 0.373 | Moderate |
| REGN | 0.375 | 0.322 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare GILD to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.