HL (HL)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicFinancial health metrics are strong: Piotroski 8/9, Altman Z 9.0 (above 3.0 safe zone threshold). DCF fair value of $11 implies 45% downside based on model assumptions. Beneish M-Score of -1.10 exceeds the -2.22 academic threshold — earnings quality may warrant further review.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe company exhibits exceptional fundamental quality with a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 and an Altman Z-Score of 8.6, signaling robust financial health and low distress risk despite a negligible ROIC-WACC spread of -0.2%. This tight capital efficiency margin suggests the firm is barely clearing its hurdle rate for value creation, even as DuPont analysis reveals that high net margins (22.6%) are driving returns rather than asset turnover or leverage. However, this operational strength sits in tension with a Profitability Factor score of -1.160, indicating potential weakness relative to peers on specific profitability metrics, while the Beneish M-Score of -1.10 supports the integrity of reported earnings amidst accelerating revenue growth of 53.0% year-over-year.
Valuation appears significantly stretched when compared to intrinsic value models, with a current P/E ratio of 39.1x far exceeding the DCF-derived fair value estimate of $11 and implying substantial downside potential of -38.3%. The market is pricing in aggressive future expansion, reflected in an implied free cash flow growth rate of 22.2% over ten years, which may not be fully sustainable given the current discount to intrinsic value. While the stock demonstrates a remarkable Fama-French annual alpha of 60.37%, suggesting strong momentum or factor-specific outperformance, this anomaly does not necessarily validate the high multiple if future growth fails to materialize at the assumed pace required to justify the premium over historical averages and sector norms.
Risk assessment is complicated by divergent signals: while insider activity shows $1,144,009 in net selling over ninety days, potentially indicating caution from those with superior information, the company's low value factor exposure (HML of 0.002) suggests it is not currently trading as a deep-value opportunity but rather carries growth characteristics that have already been heavily priced into its equity price. The combination of high valuation multiples, weak relative profitability factors, and insider outflows creates an environment where the realized alpha could revert to the mean if earnings guidance falters or if market sentiment shifts away from aggressive growth narratives.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 53% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 11.2% | 13.2% | 15.2% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $12 | $10 | $8 |
| 3% | $14 | $11 | $9 |
| 4% | $15 | $12 | $9 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $17.80.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=13.2%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $11 (-44.6%). Not investment advice.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedThe current trading price of $17.30 for HL sits within a context where the absence of broader technical indicators, such as moving averages or volume profiles, limits the ability to definitively characterize momentum structure versus fragility without additional data points. While the specific drawdown magnitude and recent volatility metrics are not provided in this snapshot, any assessment of risk dynamics relies heavily on how sharply price has moved from recent highs relative to its support levels. In financial markets, a single price figure often masks underlying instability if it follows a period of significant fluctuation or fundamental uncertainty, suggesting that apparent stability could be precarious rather than structural. The isolation of the current price level without accompanying trend data means that any perceived strength in the asset's position is difficult to validate against historical performance patterns. Risk dynamics are typically defined by the interplay between price action and volatility; if HL has experienced recent erratic movements, the $17.30 mark might represent a fragile equilibrium susceptible to sharp corrections upon minor news triggers or liquidity shifts. Conversely, without evidence of sustained upward pressure or deep consolidation, the market structure remains ambiguous regarding whether this level represents a genuine inflection point or merely a transient pause in a wider trend. Ultimately, the technical picture presented by this solitary data point is insufficient to determine if momentum possesses structural integrity or inherent weakness. Investors must weigh the current valuation against unlisted volatility histories and fundamental developments to gauge true risk exposure. The market environment suggests caution in interpreting short-term price levels as reliable indicators
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-22 | $0.0040 | 0.0% |
| 2026-03-09 | $0.0040 | 0.0% |
| 2025-11-24 | $0.0040 | 0.0% |
| 2025-08-22 | $0.0040 | 0.0% |
| 2025-05-23 | $0.0040 | 0.0% |
| 2025-03-10 | $0.0040 | -71.4% |
| 2024-11-21 | $0.0140 | 0.0% |
| 2024-08-26 | $0.0140 | +133.3% |
| 2024-05-23 | $0.0060 | 0.0% |
| 2024-03-11 | $0.0060 | 0.0% |
| 2023-11-22 | $0.0060 | 0.0% |
| 2023-08-23 | $0.0060 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like XME or VAW, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell HL shares regardless of HL's individual fundamentals. We estimate $979M of passive capital is structurally linked to HL through 8 tracked ETFs. Passive flows have a limited but growing influence on HL's daily trading dynamics.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in HL to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If HL (HL) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies Linde plc (LIN) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with HL. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 15 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
HL Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 9 HL shares, reducing daily market volatility.
HL (HL) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 3.5% of the XME (XME) and 0.8% of the VAW (VAW). Across 15 tracked ETFs, approximately 75M shares (11.3% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest HL Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 15 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
HL Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for HL over the past year sits near $5.99 (18% of 252-day volume). The current price of $17.80 trades 196.9% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target. The highly concentrated volume profile (18% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
HL Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does HL convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
HL converts 45% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a healthy conversion rate indicating efficient capital management — the business generates substantial cash after reinvestment. The 55% reinvestment rate signals aggressive capacity expansion. However, the ROIC-WACC spread is negative (-0.8%), suggesting reinvested capital is destroying shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | 6,465 | $21.05 | $136,088.25 |
| 2026-05-12 | 69,083 | $20.67 | $1.4M |
| 2026-05-11 | 16,774 | $18.61 | $312,164.14 |
| 2026-05-05 | 29 | $17.58 | $509.82 |
| 2026-04-29 | 473 | $17.84 | $8,438.32 |
| 2026-04-28 | 1,991 | $18.62 | $37,072.42 |
| 2026-04-27 | 1,479 | $18.80 | $27,805.2 |
| 2026-04-22 | 141,971 | $18.09 | $2.6M |
| 2026-04-21 | 73 | $19.33 | $1,411.09 |
| 2026-04-17 | 4,273 | $19.11 | $81,657.03 |
| 2026-04-14 | 361 | $19.27 | $6,956.47 |
| 2026-04-13 | 600 | $19.46 | $11,676 |
| 2026-04-10 | 316 | $19.30 | $6,098.8 |
| 2026-04-06 | 6,500 | $19.18 | $124,670 |
| 2026-04-02 | 769 | $19.18 | $14,749.42 |
| 2026-03-31 | 226 | $17.22 | $3,891.72 |
| 2026-03-30 | 2,000 | $17.93 | $35,860 |
| 2026-03-27 | 16,745 | $17.19 | $287,846.55 |
| 2026-03-24 | 215 | $17.81 | $3,829.15 |
| 2026-03-23 | 49,500 | $17.24 | $853,380 |
| 2026-03-19 | 965 | $18.50 | $17,852.5 |
| 2026-03-10 | 96,908 | $21.08 | $2.0M |
| 2026-03-09 | 255,570 | $20.39 | $5.2M |
| 2026-03-04 | 1,053,632 | $21.70 | $22.9M |
| 2026-03-03 | 54,171 | $24.63 | $1.3M |
| 2026-02-19 | 22,000 | $22.02 | $484,440 |
| 2026-02-12 | 7,817 | $23.69 | $185,184.73 |
| 2026-02-09 | 385 | $22.77 | $8,766.45 |
| 2026-02-05 | 8 | $23.11 | $184.88 |
| 2026-01-23 | 41,305 | $31.29 | $1.3M |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| CDE | 0.771 | 0.836 | High co-movement |
| RGLD | 0.682 | 0.750 | Moderate |
| NEM | 0.666 | 0.785 | Moderate |
| GFI | 0.651 | 0.749 | Moderate |
| GB00BRXH2664 | 0.618 | 0.715 | Moderate |
| AU | 0.618 | 0.715 | Moderate |
| GB00BL6K5J42 | 0.559 | 0.622 | Moderate |
| GB00B2QPKJ12 | 0.535 | 0.615 | Moderate |
| HYMC | 0.504 | 0.563 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare HL to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.