Jacobs Solutions Inc. (J)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicJ trades at 35.4x earnings, roughly in line with its sector average of 44.7x. Strong operational fundamentals (Piotroski 7/9) with Altman Z of 2.9. DCF fair value of $214 implies 70% upside from current prices based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics of Jacobs Solutions Inc. reveal a capital allocation challenge, evidenced by an ROIC-WACC spread of -1.8%, indicating that the firm is currently generating returns below its cost of equity. This suboptimal efficiency stems from a DuPont decomposition where a modest 2.4% net margin and moderate asset turnover drive a total ROE of only 6.2%, despite leveraging assets at a multiplier of 2.41x. While qualitative distress signals are muted, with strong Beneish M-Score integrity (-2.58) and a robust Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 suggesting stable fundamentals, the Altman Z-Score of 3.0 places the balance sheet in the gray zone between safety and potential financial weakness. The weak profitability factor score of -0.497 further underscores structural margin compression relative to peers, even as revenue grows at a steady 4.6% year-over-year.
Valuation metrics present a complex divergence between market pricing and intrinsic value models. Trading at a current P/E multiple of 33.8x, the stock trades significantly below the sector average of 44.2x, yet this discount does not necessarily reflect undervaluation given the negative return on capital spread. Conversely, discounted cash flow analysis implies substantial upside potential, with a fair value estimate of $216 representing a 69.6% premium to current levels based on an assumed long-term free cash flow growth rate of 8.0%. This wide gap suggests the market may be pricing in persistent operational inefficiencies or macro headwinds that DCF assumptions do not fully capture, creating a scenario where traditional multiple compression conflicts with intrinsic value expansion.
Risk-adjusted performance data highlights significant underperformance relative to factor benchmarks over the measured period. The annual Fama-French alpha of -12.20% indicates consistent failure to generate excess returns after adjusting for market risk, while the negative profitability factor score (-0.497) reinforces concerns about earnings quality and margin durability. Although the positive value tilt (HML: 0.310) suggests some compensation for holding a lower-quality growth profile, recent insider activity shows $193,147 in net selling over the last ninety days, which often precedes downside pressure or signals management caution regarding near-term execution risks.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 5% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 6.8% | 8.8% | 10.8% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $274 | $185 | $137 |
| 3% | $340 | $214 | $153 |
| 4% | $455 | $254 | $172 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $121.94.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=8.8%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $214 (+70.5%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 35% below its 5-year average P/E of 49.7x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedJacobs Solutions Inc. is currently trading at $114.69 within the Industrials sector, a position that necessitates an examination of how price levels interact with broader market volatility and fundamental stability. The specific absence of recent drawdown metrics or moving average crossovers in the provided dataset limits the ability to quantify immediate momentum strength, suggesting that any current upward trajectory may be more sensitive to external macroeconomic shifts than intrinsic operational resilience. Without concrete data on maximum historical losses over defined periods, it remains difficult to distinguish whether the stock's valuation is supported by a structural recovery or merely reflects temporary liquidity flows within the industrial complex. The fundamental backdrop for engineering and construction firms often hinges on long-term infrastructure spending cycles rather than short-term earnings fluctuations, meaning price action at this level could be decoupled from immediate technical signals. If volatility remains elevated relative to historical norms, even moderate gains might indicate fragile momentum susceptible to a sharp correction should sector-specific headwinds emerge. Conversely, sustained stability in the absence of significant drawdowns would imply a more robust foundation for future price discovery. Ultimately, the interplay between the current $114.69 valuation and unseen risk parameters dictates whether the asset is positioned as a defensive hold or an aggressive play on industrial expansion.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-22 | $0.3600 | 0.0% |
| 2026-02-20 | $0.3600 | +12.5% |
| 2025-12-02 | $0.3200 | 0.0% |
| 2025-08-22 | $0.3200 | 0.0% |
| 2025-05-23 | $0.3200 | +1.0% |
| 2025-02-21 | $0.3168 | +10.3% |
| 2024-10-25 | $0.2871 | +19.7% |
| 2024-07-26 | $0.2399 | 0.0% |
| 2024-05-23 | $0.2399 | 0.0% |
| 2024-02-22 | $0.2399 | +11.5% |
| 2023-10-26 | $0.2151 | 0.0% |
| 2023-07-27 | $0.2151 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like VBR or ONEV, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell J shares regardless of Jacobs Solutions Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $2.0B of passive capital is structurally linked to J through 8 tracked ETFs. Index rebalances and ETF creation/redemption cycles can create noticeable volume spikes unrelated to company news.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Jacobs Solutions Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Jacobs Solutions Inc. (J) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies CATERPILLAR INC (CAT) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with J. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 25 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
J Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 6 J shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Jacobs Solutions Inc. (J) exerts notable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 0.3% of the VBR (VBR) and 0.3% of the ONEV (ONEV). Across 28 tracked ETFs, approximately 20M shares (16.6% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest J Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 28 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
J Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Jacobs Solutions Inc. over the past year sits near $135.12 (14% of 252-day volume). The current price of $121.94 sits 9.8% below the POC — suggesting potential mean-reversion upside if institutional demand reasserts at this level. The highly concentrated volume profile (14% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
J Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Jacobs Solutions Inc. convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Jacobs Solutions Inc. converts 66% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, an exceptional conversion rate indicating an asset-light business model with minimal capital reinvestment drag. However, the ROIC-WACC spread is negative (-1.9%), suggesting reinvested capital is destroying shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-11 | 11,404 | $118.43 | $1.4M |
| 2026-05-05 | 21,577 | $130.74 | $2.8M |
| 2026-04-24 | 745 | $127.58 | $95,047.1 |
| 2026-04-17 | 127,000 | $126.25 | $16.0M |
| 2026-04-01 | 87 | $127.28 | $11,073.36 |
| 2026-03-27 | 329 | $129.52 | $42,612.08 |
| 2026-03-26 | 16,066 | $129.97 | $2.1M |
| 2026-03-25 | 3,671 | $128.87 | $473,081.77 |
| 2026-03-11 | 30 | $131.84 | $3,955.2 |
| 2026-03-09 | 19 | $136.79 | $2,599.01 |
| 2026-01-30 | 29,255 | $136.29 | $4.0M |
| 2026-01-14 | 3,174 | $139.50 | $442,773 |
| 2025-12-29 | 4,352 | $135.28 | $588,738.56 |
| 2025-12-26 | 202 | $136.11 | $27,494.22 |
| 2025-12-24 | 267 | $135.86 | $36,274.62 |
| 2025-12-23 | 157 | $135.68 | $21,301.76 |
| 2025-12-16 | 1,416 | $135.52 | $191,896.32 |
| 2025-11-26 | 711 | $133.54 | $94,946.94 |
| 2025-11-25 | 1,360 | $132.87 | $180,703.2 |
| 2025-11-14 | 388 | $153.20 | $59,441.6 |
| 2025-10-30 | 197 | $158.36 | $31,196.92 |
| 2025-10-29 | 15 | $158.31 | $2,374.65 |
| 2025-10-28 | 52,591 | $161.00 | $8.5M |
| 2025-10-27 | 46,885 | $159.59 | $7.5M |
| 2025-10-23 | 2 | $157.70 | $315.4 |
| 2025-10-22 | 49 | $164.44 | $8,057.56 |
| 2025-10-20 | 218 | $155.39 | $33,875.02 |
| 2025-10-15 | 1,133 | $158.02 | $179,036.66 |
| 2025-10-08 | 9,206 | $155.31 | $1.4M |
| 2025-10-06 | 1,614 | $154.60 | $249,524.4 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| EMR | 0.566 | 0.574 | Moderate |
| FTV | 0.548 | 0.534 | Moderate |
| MC | 0.520 | 0.483 | Moderate |
| CBRE | 0.511 | 0.529 | Moderate |
| JLL | 0.508 | 0.502 | Moderate |
| AMP | 0.504 | 0.498 | Moderate |
| MS | 0.502 | 0.515 | Moderate |
| RXO | 0.500 | 0.464 | Moderate |
| C | 0.500 | 0.538 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare J to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.