J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc. (JBHT)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicJBHT trades at 42.9x earnings, roughly in line with its sector average of 44.7x. Financial health metrics are strong: Piotroski 8/9, Altman Z 6.2 (above 3.0 safe zone threshold). DCF fair value of $42 implies 82% downside based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics of J.B. Hunt reveal a company generating strong equity returns through operational leverage rather than capital efficiency or margin expansion, evidenced by an ROE of 16.8% driven primarily by high asset turnover (1.51x) and moderate financial leverage (2.22x). While the Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 and negative Beneish M-Score (-3.22) signal robust financial health with low earnings manipulation risk, the capital allocation strategy is suboptimal; an ROIC-WACC spread of -0.5% indicates that current investments are slightly destroying value relative to the cost of capital despite a solid Altman Z-Score of 5.9 suggesting minimal bankruptcy risk. This dynamic persists even as revenue contracts marginally by 0.7%, highlighting a reliance on volume or pricing power rather than top-line growth in recent periods.
Valuation metrics present a complex dichotomy between market sentiment and intrinsic modeling assumptions. Although the current P/E multiple of 35.1x trades at a discount to the sector average of 44.2x, suggesting relative cheapness within Industrials, this valuation appears inconsistent with DCF-derived fair value estimates which imply an -80.1% downside from current levels based on assumed long-term free cash flow growth rates. The market is pricing in significant future expansion that has not yet materialized in the trailing twelve months of revenue performance, creating a potential mean reversion risk if implied 10-year FCF growth fails to meet aggressive expectations.
Risk-adjusted factor analysis further complicates the investment thesis by exposing conflicting signals regarding future alpha generation and insider confidence. The stock exhibits a pronounced tilt toward the profitability factor (RMW: 0.735) while underperforming on value characteristics (HML: -0.392), aligning with its growth-oriented valuation despite stagnant revenue trends. Notably, this fundamental divergence is exacerbated by significant net insider selling totaling $6.18 million over the last ninety days, which may indicate management skepticism regarding near-term execution or capital deployment efficiency in light of the negative ROIC spread.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of -1% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 10% | 12% | 14% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $49 | $39 | $32 |
| 3% | $54 | $42 | $34 |
| 4% | $61 | $45 | $36 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $275.59.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=12.0%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $42 (-81.7%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 28% below its 5-year average P/E of 51.4x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedThe current price action for J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc. at $258.77 presents a snapshot where institutional positioning may be evolving alongside broader market dynamics. While specific moving average crossovers are not explicitly detailed in the provided dataset, the proximity of major averages often serves as a reference point for large capital allocators gauging trend sustainability versus potential reversal zones. In this context, larger players might be monitoring whether price consolidation near key support levels indicates accumulation or if resistance patterns suggest profit-taking after recent gains. Volume trends relative to average daily trading activity would typically illuminate the intensity of institutional participation; elevated volume on up-days often signals aggressive buying by funds seeking exposure to industrial logistics, whereas diminishing volume during rallies could imply waning momentum as institutions reduce their net long positions. The sector classification within Industrials adds a layer of complexity, as macroeconomic factors influencing freight demand and supply chain efficiency frequently drive the strategies of sophisticated market participants. If price action remains steady above critical moving averages without significant volatility, it may reflect a deliberate stance by institutional investors maintaining exposure to anticipated economic recovery themes rather than initiating new aggressive trades. Conversely, any sharp deviation from these established technical structures could prompt larger entities to reassess their risk parameters, potentially leading to shifts in order flow that alter the stock's liquidity profile. Observing how volume interacts with price breaks would provide clearer insight into whether current market moves are driven by retail sentiment or coordinated institutional activity, allowing observers to infer the underlying strategic posture of
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-08 | $0.4500 | 0.0% |
| 2026-02-06 | $0.4500 | +2.3% |
| 2025-11-07 | $0.4400 | 0.0% |
| 2025-08-08 | $0.4400 | 0.0% |
| 2025-05-09 | $0.4400 | 0.0% |
| 2025-02-07 | $0.4400 | +2.3% |
| 2024-11-08 | $0.4300 | 0.0% |
| 2024-08-02 | $0.4300 | 0.0% |
| 2024-05-09 | $0.4300 | 0.0% |
| 2024-02-08 | $0.4300 | +2.4% |
| 2023-11-09 | $0.4200 | 0.0% |
| 2023-08-03 | $0.4200 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like XTN or ONEV, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell JBHT shares regardless of J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $2.8B of passive capital is structurally linked to JBHT through 8 tracked ETFs. Index rebalances and ETF creation/redemption cycles can create noticeable volume spikes unrelated to company news.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc. (JBHT) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies UNITED PARCEL SERVICE CL B (UPS) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 3 ETFs with JBHT. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 32 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
JBHT Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 8 JBHT shares, reducing daily market volatility.
J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc. (JBHT) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 2.8% of the XTN (XTN) and 0.6% of the ONEV (ONEV). Across 32 tracked ETFs, approximately 12M shares (12.8% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest JBHT Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 32 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
JBHT Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc. over the past year sits near $140.80 (19% of 252-day volume). The current price of $275.59 trades 95.7% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target. The highly concentrated volume profile (19% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
JBHT Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc. convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc. converts 60% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a healthy conversion rate indicating efficient capital management — the business generates substantial cash after reinvestment. However, the ROIC-WACC spread is negative (-0.6%), suggesting reinvested capital is destroying shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-12 | 46 | $240.75 | $11,074.5 |
| 2026-04-30 | 5,307 | $246.31 | $1.3M |
| 2026-04-28 | 34 | $250.16 | $8,505.44 |
| 2026-04-21 | 2 | $251.60 | $503.2 |
| 2026-04-20 | 458 | $245.08 | $112,246.64 |
| 2026-04-16 | 1 | $224.17 | $224.17 |
| 2026-04-15 | 3 | $229.61 | $688.83 |
| 2026-03-25 | 7 | $205.14 | $1,435.98 |
| 2026-03-11 | 300 | $215.85 | $64,755 |
| 2026-03-05 | 1 | $234.92 | $234.92 |
| 2026-02-12 | 551 | $230.38 | $126,939.38 |
| 2026-02-10 | 149 | $226.27 | $33,714.23 |
| 2026-02-09 | 75 | $227.91 | $17,093.25 |
| 2026-02-06 | 166 | $225.25 | $37,391.5 |
| 2026-01-29 | 58,943 | $205.06 | $12.1M |
| 2026-01-21 | 626 | $203.50 | $127,391 |
| 2025-12-22 | 88 | $197.68 | $17,395.84 |
| 2025-12-01 | 76 | $173.96 | $13,220.96 |
| 2025-11-25 | 6,170 | $166.65 | $1.0M |
| 2025-11-24 | 645 | $166.43 | $107,347.35 |
| 2025-11-21 | 1,998 | $158.92 | $317,522.16 |
| 2025-10-30 | 216 | $168.88 | $36,478.08 |
| 2025-10-22 | 1,394 | $168.98 | $235,558.12 |
| 2025-10-21 | 1,451 | $165.49 | $240,125.99 |
| 2025-10-17 | 96 | $169.57 | $16,278.72 |
| 2025-10-01 | 13,847 | $134.17 | $1.9M |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| ODFL | 0.682 | 0.566 | Moderate |
| MTD | 0.567 | 0.499 | Moderate |
| SWK | 0.560 | 0.422 | Moderate |
| FDX | 0.553 | 0.406 | Moderate |
| RXO | 0.546 | 0.409 | Moderate |
| DOV | 0.537 | 0.433 | Moderate |
| PCAR | 0.523 | 0.422 | Moderate |
| UPS | 0.520 | 0.406 | Moderate |
| MAS | 0.509 | 0.361 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare JBHT to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.