KBH (KBH)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicBelow-average fundamentals indicated by Piotroski score of 3/9. DCF fair value of $106 implies 104% upside from current prices based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe capital allocation efficiency presents a notable divergence from historical profitability norms, as the company generates an ROIC of 7.1% that falls short of its estimated cost of equity at 10.5%, resulting in a negative spread of -3.4%. This fundamental weakness is underscored by deteriorating operational momentum, evidenced by revenue contraction of 10.0% year-over-year and a low Piotroski F-Score of 3/9, which signals significant financial distress relative to peer benchmarks. While the Altman Z-Score of 3.6 suggests moderate bankruptcy risk rather than imminent insolvency, the negative ROIC-WACC spread indicates that current operations are destroying shareholder value unless leverage or asset turnover improves substantially in future periods.
Despite these fundamental headwinds, valuation metrics display a distinct dislocation between market pricing and intrinsic models derived from cash flow assumptions. The stock currently trades at 10.5x earnings, representing a 20% premium over its five-year average of 8.3x, yet this multiple appears disconnected from the underlying economic reality given the negative returns on invested capital. Conversely, discounted cash flow analysis implies a fair value of $106 with an upside potential of 103.6%, suggesting that the market may be pricing in substantial mean reversion or aggressive future growth not currently reflected in trailing earnings or revenue trends. The implied ten-year free cash flow growth rate of 7.2% further highlights this gap, as it assumes a trajectory inconsistent with recent negative top-line performance unless significant structural changes occur.
The Beneish M-Score of -2.40 provides some reassurance regarding the integrity of reported earnings, indicating low probability of manipulation despite the weak Piotroski score which often flags aggressive accounting practices in distressed firms. However, the combination of shrinking revenues and a negative spread between returns on capital and the cost of equity creates a high-risk profile where any further deterioration could exacerbate solvency concerns flagged by the Altman metric. Investors must weigh whether the valuation gap represents an arbitrage opportunity or if it reflects overoptimistic assumptions about future recovery that are not supported by current fundamental flows.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of -10% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 8.6% | 10.6% | 12.6% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $132 | $94 | $70 |
| 3% | $155 | $106 | $77 |
| 4% | $189 | $122 | $86 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $51.45.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=10.5%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $106 (+103.6%). Not investment advice.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedThe current trading price of $48.60 establishes a specific point in the asset's recent trajectory, though without explicit moving average data or Relative Strength Index values for this session, definitive conclusions regarding immediate momentum direction cannot be drawn from the provided figures alone. In broader technical analysis contexts, observing whether a security trades above its short-term and long-term averages typically signals bullish sentiment if confirmed by volume, while trading below them often suggests bearish pressure. Similarly, an RSI reading generally indicates overbought conditions when approaching extreme highs or oversold territory near lows, serving as a potential gauge for short-term exhaustion rather than a standalone directive. Given the limited dataset consisting solely of the current price point, any assessment of trend strength remains incomplete without comparative historical data such as specific moving average crossovers or oscillator readings. The absence of these critical indicators prevents a clear determination of whether the recent price action reflects sustained upward momentum, a corrective pullback, or consolidation within a neutral zone. Market participants would need to correlate this $48.60 level against established technical benchmarks and volume patterns to form a more comprehensive view of the underlying market dynamics at play during this specific timeframe.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
Balance Sheet Health
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-07 | $0.2500 | 0.0% |
| 2026-02-05 | $0.2500 | 0.0% |
| 2025-11-13 | $0.2500 | 0.0% |
| 2025-08-07 | $0.2500 | 0.0% |
| 2025-05-08 | $0.2500 | 0.0% |
| 2025-02-06 | $0.2500 | 0.0% |
| 2024-11-14 | $0.2500 | 0.0% |
| 2024-08-08 | $0.2500 | 0.0% |
| 2024-05-08 | $0.2500 | +25.0% |
| 2024-02-07 | $0.2000 | 0.0% |
| 2023-11-08 | $0.2000 | 0.0% |
| 2023-08-02 | $0.2000 | +33.3% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like XHB or MDYV, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell KBH shares regardless of KBH's individual fundamentals. We estimate $153M of passive capital is structurally linked to KBH through 8 tracked ETFs. Passive flows have a limited but growing influence on KBH's daily trading dynamics.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in KBH to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If KBH (KBH) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with KBH. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 10 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
KBH Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 19 KBH shares, reducing daily market volatility.
KBH (KBH) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 3.1% of the XHB (XHB) and 0.2% of the MDYV (MDYV). Across 10 tracked ETFs, approximately 3M shares (5.4% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. As passive ownership grows, index inclusion changes may increasingly drive price discovery.
ETFs with Highest KBH Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 10 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
KBH Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for KBH over the past year sits near $62.72 (10% of 252-day volume). The current price of $51.45 sits 18.0% below the POC — suggesting potential mean-reversion upside if institutional demand reasserts at this level.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
KBH Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does KBH convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
KBH converts 51% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a healthy conversion rate indicating efficient capital management — the business generates substantial cash after reinvestment. However, the ROIC-WACC spread is negative (-3.4%), suggesting reinvested capital is destroying shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-06 | 5,818 | $48.42 | $281,707.56 |
| 2026-05-01 | 351 | $52.99 | $18,599.49 |
| 2026-04-15 | 182 | $51.93 | $9,451.26 |
| 2026-03-31 | 89 | $50.51 | $4,495.39 |
| 2026-03-26 | 80 | $52.12 | $4,169.6 |
| 2026-03-24 | 98 | $53.19 | $5,212.62 |
| 2026-03-19 | 4,295 | $53.20 | $228,494 |
| 2026-03-16 | 29,273 | $52.95 | $1.6M |
| 2026-03-06 | 180 | $58.48 | $10,526.4 |
| 2026-02-17 | 218 | $66.36 | $14,466.48 |
| 2026-02-13 | 392 | $63.96 | $25,072.32 |
| 2026-02-09 | 13 | $60.94 | $792.22 |
| 2026-02-05 | 158 | $61.25 | $9,677.5 |
| 2026-02-04 | 1,100 | $59.41 | $65,351 |
| 2026-01-14 | 116 | $62.58 | $7,259.28 |
| 2026-01-09 | 238 | $57.61 | $13,711.18 |
| 2026-01-07 | 1,398 | $57.19 | $79,951.62 |
| 2025-12-29 | 3,232 | $57.31 | $185,225.92 |
| 2025-12-19 | 162 | $62.75 | $10,165.5 |
| 2025-12-17 | 1,703 | $63.91 | $108,838.73 |
| 2025-12-16 | 3,254 | $65.00 | $211,510 |
| 2025-12-12 | 107 | $65.07 | $6,962.49 |
| 2025-12-08 | 50 | $63.33 | $3,166.5 |
| 2025-12-03 | 8,294 | $64.26 | $532,972.44 |
| 2025-11-24 | 772 | $61.66 | $47,601.52 |
| 2025-11-17 | 395 | $60.16 | $23,763.2 |
| 2025-11-07 | 16 | $60.66 | $970.56 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| TMHC | 0.902 | 0.870 | High co-movement |
| PHM | 0.901 | 0.854 | High co-movement |
| MTH | 0.898 | 0.861 | High co-movement |
| DHI | 0.878 | 0.865 | High co-movement |
| TOL | 0.868 | 0.798 | High co-movement |
| LEN | 0.844 | 0.759 | High co-movement |
| NVR | 0.766 | 0.648 | High co-movement |
| BLDR | 0.752 | 0.716 | High co-movement |
| HD | 0.709 | 0.712 | High co-movement |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare KBH to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.