Match Group, Inc. (MTCH)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicAt 13.8x earnings — a 57% discount to the sector average of 32.1x — MTCH is in the lower valuation range. Strong operational fundamentals (Piotroski 7/9) with Altman Z of 0.6. DCF fair value of $113 implies 240% upside from current prices based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics of Match Group present a distinct dichotomy between operational efficiency and capital structure constraints. The company generates robust profitability, evidenced by a 72.8% gross margin and an ROIC-WACC spread of +10.3%, indicating that core operations create significant value relative to the cost of capital. However, this strength is mathematically offset by severe leverage; the DuPont decomposition reveals an equity multiplier of -17.60x driving a negative ROE of -242.1%. This leveraged structure has triggered an Altman Z-Score of 0.6, signaling potential distress despite a strong Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 and low Beneish M-Score suggesting minimal earnings manipulation. The combination of high leverage with stagnant revenue growth of just 0.2% creates a fragile balance sheet where operational wins are negated by financial engineering risks.
Valuation metrics suggest the market is pricing in significant downside risk rather than future expansion, creating a wide divergence between current prices and model-derived fair value. Trading at 13.3x P/E versus a sector average of 36.3x, the stock appears deeply discounted on an earnings basis. A DCF analysis implies substantial upside to $110 per share based on a -0.2% implied free cash flow growth rate over ten years, suggesting current pricing assumes permanent capital destruction or severe distress scenarios that may not materialize given the 7/9 F-Score. The disconnect between the low multiple and high DCF fair value indicates the market is heavily weighting the negative equity multiplier and Z-score risks over the underlying operational margins.
Risk-adjusted performance data further complicates the investment thesis, highlighting a misalignment with traditional growth factors while acknowledging profitability strength. The stock exhibits a Fama-French alpha of -12.20% annually and a Value Factor (HML) of -0.111, confirming its classification as a tilted growth asset that has underperformed value benchmarks recently. Conversely, the Profitability Factor (RMW) stands at 0.374, validating the quality of earnings generation independent of leverage effects. However, this fundamental profile is tempered by insider activity showing $1,778,050 in net selling over the last ninety days, which may reflect management's concern regarding liquidity or capital structure constraints amidst flat top-line performance.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 0% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 8% | 10% | 12% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $140 | $100 | $76 |
| 3% | $166 | $113 | $84 |
| 4% | $205 | $130 | $93 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $35.32.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=10.0%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $113 (+239.7%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 12% below its 5-year average P/E of 15.1x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedMatch Group's stock is currently trading just below its 50-day moving average, indicating a slight short-term bearish pressure compared to recent prices. The RSI reading of around 51 suggests that the momentum is neutral and balanced, neither overbought nor oversold at this point.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-07 | $0.2000 | +5.3% |
| 2026-01-06 | $0.1900 | 0.0% |
| 2025-10-03 | $0.1900 | 0.0% |
| 2025-07-03 | $0.1900 | 0.0% |
| 2025-04-03 | $0.1900 | 0.0% |
| 2025-01-06 | $0.1900 | -90.5% |
| 2018-12-04 | $2.0000 | — |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like IJS or SLYV, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell MTCH shares regardless of Match Group, Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $947M of passive capital is structurally linked to MTCH through 8 tracked ETFs. Passive flows have a limited but growing influence on MTCH's daily trading dynamics.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Match Group, Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Match Group, Inc. (MTCH) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies Facebook Inc. Class A (META) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 2 ETFs with MTCH. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 21 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
MTCH Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 7 MTCH shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Match Group, Inc. (MTCH) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 1.0% of the IJS (IJS) and 1.0% of the SLYV (SLYV). Across 21 tracked ETFs, approximately 32M shares (13.7% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest MTCH Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 21 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
MTCH Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Match Group, Inc. over the past year sits near $31.59 (13% of 252-day volume). The current price of $35.32 trades 11.8% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target. The highly concentrated volume profile (13% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
MTCH Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Match Group, Inc. convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Match Group, Inc. converts 107% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, an exceptional conversion rate indicating an asset-light business model with minimal capital reinvestment drag. The positive ROIC-WACC spread of 10.5% confirms that reinvested capital creates shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-13 | 5 | $35.36 | $176.8 |
| 2026-04-22 | 1 | $35.93 | $35.93 |
| 2026-04-20 | 6,663 | $35.51 | $236,603.13 |
| 2026-04-14 | 2 | $33.20 | $66.4 |
| 2026-04-13 | 2 | $31.70 | $63.4 |
| 2026-04-07 | 32,778 | $32.14 | $1.1M |
| 2026-04-02 | 22,694 | $31.14 | $706,691.16 |
| 2026-03-31 | 21 | $30.15 | $633.15 |
| 2026-03-26 | 48 | $30.34 | $1,456.32 |
| 2026-03-24 | 397 | $31.20 | $12,386.4 |
| 2026-03-23 | 442,299 | $31.06 | $13.7M |
| 2026-03-20 | 1,638 | $31.47 | $51,547.86 |
| 2026-02-10 | 174 | $32.59 | $5,670.66 |
| 2026-02-04 | 2,249 | $28.90 | $64,996.1 |
| 2026-01-30 | 50,066 | $31.02 | $1.6M |
| 2026-01-27 | 23,275 | $32.08 | $746,662 |
| 2026-01-13 | 395 | $32.07 | $12,667.65 |
| 2026-01-08 | 26 | $32.59 | $847.34 |
| 2025-12-26 | 2,879 | $32.89 | $94,690.31 |
| 2025-12-22 | 100 | $33.02 | $3,302 |
| 2025-12-17 | 7,900 | $32.22 | $254,538 |
| 2025-12-15 | 9,753 | $33.19 | $323,702.07 |
| 2025-12-11 | 158 | $33.81 | $5,341.98 |
| 2025-12-10 | 4,141 | $34.02 | $140,876.82 |
| 2025-12-05 | 8,789 | $33.88 | $297,771.32 |
| 2025-12-01 | 5,402 | $33.31 | $179,940.62 |
| 2025-11-26 | 2,106 | $33.39 | $70,319.34 |
| 2025-11-13 | 9,276 | $32.99 | $306,015.24 |
| 2025-11-12 | 360 | $32.94 | $11,858.4 |
| 2025-11-05 | 17,184 | $31.55 | $542,155.2 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| TRMB | 0.492 | 0.559 | Moderate |
| ADBE | 0.481 | 0.504 | Moderate |
| SHOP | 0.474 | 0.461 | Moderate |
| KKR | 0.461 | 0.524 | Moderate |
| ABNB | 0.453 | 0.552 | Moderate |
| JLL | 0.445 | 0.501 | Moderate |
| PYPL | 0.443 | 0.528 | Moderate |
| MGM | 0.441 | 0.432 | Moderate |
| ACN | 0.430 | 0.555 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare MTCH to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.