Micron Technology, Inc. (MU)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicMU trades at 45.9x earnings, roughly in line with its sector average of 65.0x. Financial health metrics are strong: Piotroski 7/9, Altman Z 11.9 (above 3.0 safe zone threshold). DCF fair value of $26 implies 94% downside based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedMicron Technology exhibits a distinct divergence between its current profitability metrics and capital efficiency, characterized by an ROIC-WACC spread of -2.8% that signals value destruction relative to the cost of equity despite robust operational leverage. This dynamic is underscored by a DuPont decomposition where high net margins (22.8%) are offset by modest asset turnover (0.45x) and moderate financial leverage (1.53x), resulting in an ROE of 15.8% that masks underlying capital intensity challenges. While the Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 suggests strong fundamental stability and a high Altman Z-Score of 11.4 indicates negligible bankruptcy risk, the negative spread implies the market currently prices the stock as requiring higher returns to justify its deployed capital base.
Valuation analysis reveals a significant discrepancy between current pricing and intrinsic value models, with the stock trading at 17.3x earnings compared to a sector average of 42.2x, yet still implying substantial downside relative to discounted cash flow assumptions. The DCF model assigns a fair value of $27, reflecting an implied future free cash flow growth rate of 50% over ten years; however, the current market price suggests a -92.1% gap between realized valuation and this theoretical floor. This compression indicates that while the stock trades at a discount to peers, the pricing mechanism appears to already incorporate extremely aggressive long-term growth expectations that may not align with the negative capital spread observed in recent periods.
Risk factor deltas further complicate the investment thesis through conflicting signals across style factors and insider activity. Although the Fama-French alpha of 120.24% annually points to exceptional momentum performance, this is counterbalanced by a weak profitability factor (RMW) score of -0.572 and a value tilt metric (HML) of only 0.231, suggesting limited appeal for traditional value-oriented strategies. Compounding these fundamental nuances, insider flow data shows $19 million in net selling over the last ninety days, which introduces additional caution regarding management sentiment despite the company's strong balance sheet metrics and high revenue growth trajectory.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 49% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 12.4% | 14.4% | 16.4% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $30 | $24 | $20 |
| 3% | $32 | $26 | $21 |
| 4% | $36 | $28 | $23 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $1064.10.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=14.4%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $26 (-94.0%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 47% below its 5-year average P/E of 37.4x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedMicron Technology's stock is currently trading above its 50-day moving average, which itself has crossed well above the 200-day moving average, indicating a strengthening trend. The RSI stands at 51.7, suggesting that while the near-term momentum leans slightly positive, it remains in neutral territory without signaling overbought conditions.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-30 | $0.1500 | +30.4% |
| 2025-12-29 | $0.1150 | 0.0% |
| 2025-10-03 | $0.1150 | 0.0% |
| 2025-07-07 | $0.1150 | 0.0% |
| 2025-03-31 | $0.1150 | 0.0% |
| 2024-12-30 | $0.1150 | 0.0% |
| 2024-10-07 | $0.1150 | 0.0% |
| 2024-07-08 | $0.1150 | 0.0% |
| 2024-03-28 | $0.1150 | 0.0% |
| 2023-12-29 | $0.1150 | 0.0% |
| 2023-10-06 | $0.1150 | 0.0% |
| 2023-07-07 | $0.1150 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
10-K Risk Factor Expansion
Word count of Item 1A (Risk Factors) across annual filings. Rising counts often signal new regulatory, competitive, or operational risks.
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like VLUE or XNTK, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell MU shares regardless of Micron Technology, Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $78.0B of passive capital is structurally linked to MU through 8 tracked ETFs. This substantial passive exposure means that ETF inflows and outflows — not company fundamentals — can dominate daily volume on this stock.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Micron Technology, Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies NVIDIA CORP (NVDA) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 2 ETFs with MU. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 37 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
MU Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 7 MU shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) exerts notable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 11.6% of the VLUE (VLUE) and 7.3% of the XNTK (XNTK). Across 32 tracked ETFs, approximately 170M shares (15.1% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest MU Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 32 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
MU Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Micron Technology, Inc. over the past year sits near $118.77 (19% of 252-day volume). The current price of $1064.10 trades 795.9% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target. The highly concentrated volume profile (19% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
MU Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Micron Technology, Inc. convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Micron Technology, Inc. converts 9% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a low conversion rate suggesting heavy reinvestment. This may indicate a growth phase (building capacity) or structural capital intensity. The 91% reinvestment rate signals aggressive capacity expansion. However, the ROIC-WACC spread is negative (-3.2%), suggesting reinvested capital is destroying shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | 41 | $803.63 | $32,948.83 |
| 2026-05-11 | 18,672 | $746.81 | $13.9M |
| 2026-05-07 | 3 | $666.59 | $1,999.77 |
| 2026-05-06 | 1,241 | $640.20 | $794,488.2 |
| 2026-05-05 | 400 | $576.45 | $230,580 |
| 2026-05-04 | 48,360 | $542.21 | $26.2M |
| 2026-05-01 | 510 | $517.16 | $263,751.6 |
| 2026-04-27 | 11,801 | $496.72 | $5.9M |
| 2026-04-24 | 151 | $481.72 | $72,739.72 |
| 2026-04-23 | 1 | $487.48 | $487.48 |
| 2026-04-20 | 3,189 | $455.07 | $1.5M |
| 2026-04-17 | 1 | $457.23 | $457.23 |
| 2026-04-16 | 4,800 | $456.23 | $2.2M |
| 2026-04-15 | 14 | $465.66 | $6,519.24 |
| 2026-04-14 | 2 | $426.56 | $853.12 |
| 2026-04-13 | 1,000 | $420.59 | $420,590 |
| 2026-04-08 | 19,175 | $377.58 | $7.2M |
| 2026-04-07 | 85 | $377.76 | $32,109.6 |
| 2026-04-06 | 13,668 | $366.24 | $5.0M |
| 2026-04-01 | 97 | $337.84 | $32,770.48 |
| 2026-03-31 | 1,861 | $321.80 | $598,869.8 |
| 2026-03-27 | 396 | $355.46 | $140,762.16 |
| 2026-03-25 | 72 | $395.53 | $28,478.16 |
| 2026-03-24 | 8,680 | $404.35 | $3.5M |
| 2026-03-19 | 4 | $461.73 | $1,846.92 |
| 2026-03-16 | 10,346 | $426.13 | $4.4M |
| 2026-03-09 | 155,388 | $370.30 | $57.5M |
| 2026-03-06 | 1,068 | $397.05 | $424,049.4 |
| 2026-03-04 | 201,114 | $379.68 | $76.4M |
| 2026-02-26 | 13 | $429.00 | $5,577 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
SEC Comment Letters
SEC correspondence with the company regarding their filings. Comment letters often flag disclosure deficiencies, accounting concerns, or material omissions.
Source: SEC EDGAR correspondence. Comment letters are public records of SEC staff review of company filings.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| LRCX | 0.745 | 0.744 | High co-movement |
| SNDK | 0.706 | 0.726 | High co-movement |
| AMAT | 0.644 | 0.663 | Moderate |
| WDC | 0.641 | 0.715 | Moderate |
| KLAC | 0.617 | 0.607 | Moderate |
| USN070592100 | 0.604 | 0.615 | Moderate |
| ASML | 0.604 | 0.614 | Moderate |
| TSM | 0.594 | 0.604 | Moderate |
| STX | 0.581 | 0.649 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare MU to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.