News Corporation (NWS)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicNWS trades at 37.7x earnings, roughly in line with its sector average of 32.1x. Strong operational fundamentals (Piotroski 7/9) with Altman Z of 2.4. DCF fair value of $10 implies 66% downside based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe capital allocation efficiency of News Corporation presents a significant structural constraint, evidenced by an ROIC-WACC spread of -4.2%, indicating that the firm is currently destroying value relative to its cost of capital despite maintaining a solid Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 and neutral insider flow over the last quarter. The DuPont decomposition reveals that this return on equity of 12.6% is driven primarily by leverage (Equity Multiplier at 1.65x) rather than operational excellence, as asset turnover remains modest at 0.55x; however, robust net margins of 14.0% partially offset these inefficiencies. While the Altman Z-Score of 2.3 suggests a moderate risk profile regarding bankruptcy probability, the negative spread and weak profitability factor score (RMW: -0.118) signal that recent earnings quality may not be translating into sustainable capital gains.
Valuation metrics further complicate the investment thesis, with the current P/E ratio of 36.5x trading slightly above the sector average of 35.7x while simultaneously implying a substantial discount to intrinsic value according to DCF models pricing in $10 fair value and -66.3% downside potential. This divergence suggests the market is pricing for an implied free cash flow growth rate of 13.9% over ten years, a trajectory that appears inconsistent with the observed weak profitability factor and negative Fama-French alpha of -32.45%. The disconnect between high multiple compression relative to historical norms and the stark undervaluation in absolute terms indicates significant uncertainty regarding future cash flow generation capabilities within this communication services sector.
The risk-reward profile is skewed by a pronounced drag on performance factors, specifically the negative Fama-French alpha which has historically penalized the stock across various factor models. Although revenue growth of 2.4% provides some stability, it fails to justify the premium valuation when weighed against the -4.2% value destruction rate inherent in the current capital structure. Investors must weigh whether the high P/E multiple reflects an expectation that management will successfully pivot operations to improve asset turnover or if the market is already pricing in a prolonged period of sub-par returns relative to risk-free alternatives and sector peers.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 2% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 7.9% | 9.9% | 11.9% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $12 | $9 | $7 |
| 3% | $13 | $10 | $8 |
| 4% | $16 | $11 | $9 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $30.18.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=9.9%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $10 (-65.7%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 119% above its 5-year average P/E of 16.7x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedThe 50-day moving average of NWS is below its 200-day moving average, indicating a short-term bearish trend relative to the longer term. The RSI at 52.1 suggests that near-term momentum is balanced but slightly favoring neither overbought nor oversold conditions.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-11 | $0.1000 | 0.0% |
| 2025-09-10 | $0.1000 | 0.0% |
| 2025-03-12 | $0.1000 | 0.0% |
| 2024-09-11 | $0.1000 | 0.0% |
| 2024-03-12 | $0.1000 | 0.0% |
| 2023-09-12 | $0.1000 | 0.0% |
| 2023-03-14 | $0.1000 | 0.0% |
| 2022-09-13 | $0.1000 | 0.0% |
| 2022-03-15 | $0.1000 | 0.0% |
| 2021-09-14 | $0.1000 | 0.0% |
| 2021-03-16 | $0.1000 | 0.0% |
| 2020-09-15 | $0.1000 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like XLC or VOX, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell NWS shares regardless of News Corporation's individual fundamentals. We estimate $458M of passive capital is structurally linked to NWS through 8 tracked ETFs. Passive flows have a limited but growing influence on NWS's daily trading dynamics.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in News Corporation to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If News Corporation (NWS) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies Facebook Inc. Class A (META) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 2 ETFs with NWS. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 14 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
NWS Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 11 NWS shares, reducing daily market volatility.
News Corporation (NWS) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 1.0% of the State Street Communication Services Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLC) and 0.2% of the VOX (VOX). Across 17 tracked ETFs, approximately 16M shares (8.8% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. As passive ownership grows, index inclusion changes may increasingly drive price discovery.
ETFs with Highest NWS Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 17 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
NWS Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for News Corporation over the past year sits near $30.12 (13% of 252-day volume). The current price of $30.18 trades 0.2% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target. The highly concentrated volume profile (13% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
NWS Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does News Corporation convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
News Corporation converts 40% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a healthy conversion rate indicating efficient capital management — the business generates substantial cash after reinvestment. The 60% reinvestment rate signals aggressive capacity expansion. However, the ROIC-WACC spread is negative (-4.0%), suggesting reinvested capital is destroying shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-13 | 187 | $30.41 | $5,686.67 |
| 2026-05-12 | 35,841 | $31.17 | $1.1M |
| 2026-05-11 | 39 | $31.31 | $1,221.09 |
| 2026-05-08 | 2,344 | $30.85 | $72,312.4 |
| 2026-05-04 | 1,132 | $30.41 | $34,424.12 |
| 2026-04-30 | 75 | $30.25 | $2,268.75 |
| 2026-04-29 | 15,490 | $30.14 | $466,868.6 |
| 2026-04-24 | 43 | $30.40 | $1,307.2 |
| 2026-04-23 | 3,662 | $30.74 | $112,569.88 |
| 2026-04-22 | 14 | $30.42 | $425.88 |
| 2026-04-21 | 45 | $29.98 | $1,349.1 |
| 2026-04-20 | 7,551 | $29.96 | $226,227.96 |
| 2026-04-16 | 6 | $29.15 | $174.9 |
| 2026-04-15 | 270 | $28.83 | $7,784.1 |
| 2026-04-14 | 4,847 | $28.83 | $139,739.01 |
| 2026-04-10 | 118,174 | $28.40 | $3.4M |
| 2026-04-08 | 9,470 | $28.10 | $266,107 |
| 2026-04-07 | 95 | $28.14 | $2,673.3 |
| 2026-04-01 | 855 | $28.51 | $24,376.05 |
| 2026-03-31 | 284,743 | $28.32 | $8.1M |
| 2026-03-30 | 152,562 | $27.79 | $4.2M |
| 2026-03-27 | 7,409 | $27.55 | $204,117.95 |
| 2026-03-25 | 3,731 | $27.17 | $101,371.27 |
| 2026-03-24 | 47,110 | $27.46 | $1.3M |
| 2026-03-23 | 46,798 | $27.39 | $1.3M |
| 2026-03-19 | 3 | $27.30 | $81.9 |
| 2026-03-18 | 107,279 | $27.37 | $2.9M |
| 2026-03-13 | 649 | $26.66 | $17,302.34 |
| 2026-03-12 | 4,886 | $27.43 | $134,022.98 |
| 2026-03-09 | 552 | $27.70 | $15,290.4 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| NWSA | 0.934 | 0.938 | High co-movement |
| FOX | 0.521 | 0.442 | Moderate |
| FOXA | 0.492 | 0.408 | Moderate |
| TRMB | 0.461 | 0.372 | Moderate |
| ADBE | 0.437 | 0.432 | Moderate |
| TROW | 0.436 | 0.414 | Moderate |
| PYPL | 0.433 | 0.481 | Moderate |
| OMC | 0.432 | 0.399 | Moderate |
| TOST | 0.425 | 0.514 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare NWS to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.