Omnicom Group Inc. (OMC)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicBelow-average fundamentals indicated by Piotroski score of 3/9; Altman Z of 0.9 falls in the academic distress zone. DCF fair value of $325 implies 327% upside from current prices based on model assumptions. Beneish M-Score of -1.65 exceeds the -2.22 academic threshold — earnings quality may warrant further review.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics of Omnicom Group Inc. present a stark divergence between top-line expansion and capital efficiency, characterized by an ROIC-WACC spread of -6.3% that signals value destruction relative to the cost of equity. This negative return on invested capital is compounded by a DuPont-decomposed ROE of -0.4%, driven primarily by a net margin contraction to -0.3% despite robust revenue growth of 10.1%; the slight asset turnover of 0.32x and leverage multiplier of 4.17x are insufficient to offset these profitability headwinds. Financial health metrics further underscore this distress, with an Altman Z-Score of 1.0 hovering near bankruptcy territory and a Piotroski F-Score of 3/9 indicating significant deterioration in financial quality over the trailing period, even as the Beneish M-Score of -1.65 suggests low likelihood of earnings manipulation.
Valuation metrics reveal a complex picture where market pricing appears detached from current cash flow realities yet potentially anchored to future recovery scenarios. While the stock trades at a premium relative to its own historical averages and significantly above the sector average P/E of 35.7x, the DCF model implies a fair value of $331, suggesting an upside potential of approximately 340% if long-term free cash flow growth reverses from the current implied negative trajectory of -4.2%. This massive valuation gap highlights that the market is currently pricing in a substantial turnaround rather than relying on existing profitability fundamentals or historical earnings multiples.
Risk-adjusted performance data indicates persistent underperformance, with an annual Fama-French Alpha of -5.86% reflecting poor risk-adjusted returns relative to their benchmark peers. Although the stock exhibits neutral exposure to value factors and surprisingly robust profitability factor alignment (RMW: 0.191), recent insider activity shows $114,910 in net selling over the last ninety days, which often precedes further downside or signals management caution regarding near-term execution risks.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 10% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 6.1% | 8.1% | 10.1% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $424 | $278 | $204 |
| 3% | $547 | $325 | $227 |
| 4% | $786 | $394 | $259 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $75.22.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=8.1%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $325 (+327.2%). Not investment advice.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedThe 50-day moving average of OMC at $77.42 is above the 200-day moving average at $74.42, indicating an upward trend in recent price action relative to its longer-term performance. With a Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 54.1, the stock currently shows moderate strength but remains below the neutral midpoint of 50, suggesting it may be approaching an overbought condition if it continues to rise.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-11 | $0.8000 | 0.0% |
| 2025-12-19 | $0.8000 | +14.3% |
| 2025-09-02 | $0.7000 | 0.0% |
| 2025-06-10 | $0.7000 | 0.0% |
| 2025-03-11 | $0.7000 | 0.0% |
| 2024-12-20 | $0.7000 | 0.0% |
| 2024-09-20 | $0.7000 | 0.0% |
| 2024-06-10 | $0.7000 | 0.0% |
| 2024-03-08 | $0.7000 | 0.0% |
| 2023-12-21 | $0.7000 | 0.0% |
| 2023-09-20 | $0.7000 | 0.0% |
| 2023-06-08 | $0.7000 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like XLC or VOX, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell OMC shares regardless of Omnicom Group Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $4.5B of passive capital is structurally linked to OMC through 8 tracked ETFs. Index rebalances and ETF creation/redemption cycles can create noticeable volume spikes unrelated to company news.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Omnicom Group Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Omnicom Group Inc. (OMC) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies Facebook Inc. Class A (META) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with OMC. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 29 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
OMC Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 5 OMC shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Omnicom Group Inc. (OMC) exerts notable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 4.1% of the State Street Communication Services Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLC) and 1.4% of the VOX (VOX). Across 29 tracked ETFs, approximately 63M shares (22.1% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This high passive lock-up reduces the effective active float, which can amplify daily price volatility and momentum signals.
ETFs with Highest OMC Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 29 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
OMC Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Omnicom Group Inc. over the past year sits near $75.47 (11% of 252-day volume). The current price of $75.22 sits 0.3% below the POC — suggesting potential mean-reversion upside if institutional demand reasserts at this level.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
OMC Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Omnicom Group Inc. convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Omnicom Group Inc. converts 341% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, an exceptional conversion rate indicating an asset-light business model with minimal capital reinvestment drag. However, the ROIC-WACC spread is negative (-6.4%), suggesting reinvested capital is destroying shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | 53 | $74.24 | $3,934.72 |
| 2026-04-30 | 3,576 | $76.19 | $272,455.44 |
| 2026-04-29 | 6,109 | $76.88 | $469,659.92 |
| 2026-04-28 | 5,603 | $76.01 | $425,884.03 |
| 2026-04-15 | 3 | $76.48 | $229.44 |
| 2026-04-14 | 828 | $76.00 | $62,928 |
| 2026-04-13 | 58 | $74.77 | $4,336.66 |
| 2026-04-10 | 81 | $74.88 | $6,065.28 |
| 2026-04-07 | 95 | $75.96 | $7,216.2 |
| 2026-04-06 | 1,004 | $74.81 | $75,109.24 |
| 2026-04-02 | 36,441 | $75.21 | $2.7M |
| 2026-04-01 | 922 | $75.31 | $69,435.82 |
| 2026-03-31 | 878 | $75.32 | $66,130.96 |
| 2026-03-25 | 32 | $75.39 | $2,412.48 |
| 2026-03-20 | 4,236 | $75.84 | $321,258.24 |
| 2026-03-19 | 5,278 | $76.08 | $401,550.24 |
| 2026-03-18 | 68,035 | $78.39 | $5.3M |
| 2026-03-17 | 34,275 | $78.72 | $2.7M |
| 2026-03-10 | 26,502 | $83.99 | $2.2M |
| 2026-03-05 | 515 | $85.80 | $44,187 |
| 2026-03-02 | 1,457 | $85.29 | $124,267.53 |
| 2026-02-27 | 7,135 | $84.71 | $604,405.85 |
| 2026-02-20 | 70,398 | $80.94 | $5.7M |
| 2026-02-11 | 41 | $73.06 | $2,995.46 |
| 2026-02-03 | 25,415 | $76.52 | $1.9M |
| 2026-01-27 | 382 | $80.36 | $30,697.52 |
| 2026-01-23 | 553 | $79.24 | $43,819.72 |
| 2026-01-20 | 400 | $79.79 | $31,916 |
| 2026-01-16 | 6,989 | $80.84 | $564,990.76 |
| 2026-01-14 | 151 | $77.51 | $11,704.01 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| NWSA | 0.478 | 0.456 | Moderate |
| VRTPX | 0.462 | 0.288 | Moderate |
| FIS | 0.450 | 0.507 | Moderate |
| JLL | 0.438 | 0.398 | Moderate |
| PYPL | 0.433 | 0.432 | Moderate |
| NWS | 0.432 | 0.399 | Moderate |
| ROP | 0.426 | 0.425 | Moderate |
| TRMB | 0.413 | 0.379 | Moderate |
| MAA | 0.409 | 0.363 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare OMC to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.