Pfizer Inc. (PFE)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicAt 20.0x earnings — a 69% discount to the sector average of 65.2x — PFE is in the lower valuation range. Financial health is average: Piotroski 5/9, Altman Z 2.0. DCF fair value of $22 implies 20% downside based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe capital allocation efficiency of Pfizer Inc. presents a notable constraint, evidenced by an ROIC-WACC spread of -1.8%, indicating that the company is currently generating returns below its cost of capital. While the DuPont decomposition reveals a healthy net margin of 12.4% supported by strong gross margins at 74.3%, this profitability is entirely reliant on significant financial leverage, as shown by an equity multiplier of 2.40x rather than operational efficiency or asset turnover. This structural reliance on debt to achieve a 9.0% ROE contrasts with the weak underlying fundamentals signaled by declining revenue growth of -1.7% and a Piotroski F-Score of 5/9, suggesting deteriorating financial strength despite the benign Beneish M-Score of -2.48 which points away from earnings manipulation risks.
Valuation metrics further complicate the investment thesis, as the current P/E ratio of 20.8x trades at a substantial discount to the sector average of 30.8x, yet this compression appears justified by intrinsic value models that price in only modest future expansion. A DCF analysis implies a fair value significantly lower than current market levels, reflecting an assumed long-term free cash flow growth rate of just 5.4% over the next decade. The discrepancy between the low multiple and negative implied upside suggests the market has already priced in persistent headwinds rather than anticipating a reversion to mean or accelerated growth trajectories common in high-growth healthcare peers.
Risk-adjusted performance indicators reinforce concerns regarding the stock's ability to generate excess returns relative to its factor exposures. The annual Fama-French alpha of -1.30% highlights consistent underperformance after adjusting for market risk, while specific factor tilts reveal significant drag from the profitability factor (RMW) at -0.183, confirming weak profit generation capabilities independent of leverage effects. Although insider flow remains neutral with no net buying or selling activity over the past 90 days, the combination of negative alpha, low ROIC relative to WACC, and declining revenue growth paints a picture of an asset struggling to deliver value creation in its current operational state.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of -2% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 6% | 6.8% | 8.8% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $22 | $17 | $10 |
| 3% | $30 | $22 | $12 |
| 4% | $46 | $30 | $15 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $25.55.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=6.9%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $22 (-20.4%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 34% below its 5-year average P/E of 29.9x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedPfizer's (PFE) current price of $26.84 is above both its 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages at $26.27 and $24.53, respectively, indicating a bullish trend in the near to medium term. With an RSI of 50.1, the stock appears to be at the midpoint between oversold and overbought conditions, suggesting that it is currently neither particularly overvalued nor undervalued based on recent price action alone.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
⚠️ Dividend consumes >80% of FCF — sustainability risk.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-08 | $0.4300 | 0.0% |
| 2026-01-23 | $0.4300 | 0.0% |
| 2025-11-07 | $0.4300 | 0.0% |
| 2025-07-25 | $0.4300 | 0.0% |
| 2025-05-09 | $0.4300 | 0.0% |
| 2025-01-24 | $0.4300 | +2.4% |
| 2024-11-08 | $0.4200 | 0.0% |
| 2024-07-26 | $0.4200 | 0.0% |
| 2024-05-09 | $0.4200 | 0.0% |
| 2024-01-25 | $0.4200 | +2.4% |
| 2023-11-09 | $0.4100 | 0.0% |
| 2023-07-27 | $0.4100 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Smart Money Flow
Institutional 13F filings from top hedge funds. Positions updated quarterly from SEC EDGAR.
| Fund | Quarter | Shares Change | % Change | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Citadel Advisors | 2026-Q1 | -6,871,200 | -36.4% | Decreased |
| Two Sigma Investments | 2026-Q1 | +223,100 | +448.9% | Increased |
| Point72 Asset Mgmt | 2026-Q1 | +49,400 | +6.1% | Increased |
| DE Shaw | 2026-Q1 | +8,551,790 | +251.5% | Increased |
| Millennium Management | 2026-Q1 | -1,620,636 | -94.4% | Decreased |
| Millennium Management | 2025-Q4 | -208,000 | -10.8% | Decreased |
| Point72 Asset Mgmt | 2025-Q4 | +615,700 | +314.3% | Increased |
| Citadel Advisors | 2025-Q4 | +4,397,100 | +30.4% | Increased |
| Two Sigma Investments | 2025-Q4 | -26,228 | -34.5% | Decreased |
| DE Shaw | 2025-Q4 | -1,083,979 | -24.2% | Decreased |
| Renaissance Technologies | 2025-Q4 | -3,395,558 | -100.0% | Exited |
Source: SEC 13F-HR filings. 13F data is delayed ~45 days after quarter end. Not investment advice.
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like SPHD or XLV, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell PFE shares regardless of Pfizer Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $17.6B of passive capital is structurally linked to PFE through 8 tracked ETFs. This substantial passive exposure means that ETF inflows and outflows — not company fundamentals — can dominate daily volume on this stock.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Pfizer Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Pfizer Inc. (PFE) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies ELI LILLY + CO (LLY) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 2 ETFs with PFE. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 31 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
PFE Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 8 PFE shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Pfizer Inc. (PFE) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 2.9% of the SPHD (SPHD) and 2.8% of the State Street Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLV). Across 30 tracked ETFs, approximately 694M shares (12.2% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest PFE Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 30 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
PFE Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Pfizer Inc. over the past year sits near $23.79 (13% of 252-day volume). The current price of $25.55 trades 7.4% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target. The highly concentrated volume profile (13% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
PFE Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Pfizer Inc. convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Pfizer Inc. converts 54% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a healthy conversion rate indicating efficient capital management — the business generates substantial cash after reinvestment. However, the ROIC-WACC spread is negative (-2.2%), suggesting reinvested capital is destroying shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | 12,912 | $25.96 | $335,195.52 |
| 2026-05-11 | 1,592 | $25.68 | $40,882.56 |
| 2026-05-08 | 35,039 | $26.48 | $927,832.72 |
| 2026-05-07 | 99,658 | $26.53 | $2.6M |
| 2026-05-01 | 156,589 | $26.70 | $4.2M |
| 2026-04-30 | 364,518 | $26.26 | $9.6M |
| 2026-04-27 | 644 | $27.00 | $17,388 |
| 2026-04-24 | 15 | $26.67 | $400.05 |
| 2026-04-23 | 4,505 | $26.80 | $120,734 |
| 2026-04-22 | 1,962 | $27.31 | $53,582.22 |
| 2026-04-21 | 1,766 | $27.52 | $48,600.32 |
| 2026-04-20 | 41,750 | $27.56 | $1.2M |
| 2026-04-16 | 3,418 | $27.19 | $92,935.42 |
| 2026-04-15 | 45 | $27.11 | $1,219.95 |
| 2026-04-13 | 808,681 | $26.92 | $21.8M |
| 2026-04-10 | 39,864 | $27.22 | $1.1M |
| 2026-04-09 | 12,163 | $27.47 | $334,117.61 |
| 2026-04-07 | 4,067 | $27.83 | $113,184.61 |
| 2026-04-06 | 241,908 | $28.32 | $6.9M |
| 2026-04-01 | 1,023 | $28.08 | $28,725.84 |
| 2026-03-31 | 7,021 | $27.77 | $194,973.17 |
| 2026-03-30 | 382,028 | $27.04 | $10.3M |
| 2026-03-27 | 2,843 | $27.57 | $78,381.51 |
| 2026-03-23 | 4,825 | $26.97 | $130,130.25 |
| 2026-03-17 | 2,991 | $26.61 | $79,590.51 |
| 2026-03-16 | 2,977 | $26.58 | $79,128.66 |
| 2026-03-13 | 2,367 | $26.86 | $63,577.62 |
| 2026-03-09 | 11,990 | $27.05 | $324,329.5 |
| 2026-03-06 | 5 | $26.61 | $133.05 |
| 2026-03-03 | 100 | $27.26 | $2,726 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Institutional Holdings (13F Filings)
Raw SEC 13F-HR filings from institutional investment managers. Shows exact share counts and portfolio values as reported to the SEC.
| Fund | Quarter | Shares | Value ($K) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Citadel Advisors | 2026-Q1 | 12,009,400 | $337,223,952K |
| DE Shaw | 2026-Q1 | 11,952,106 | $335,615,136K |
| Point72 Asset Mgmt | 2026-Q1 | 861,000 | $24,176,880K |
| Two Sigma Investments | 2026-Q1 | 272,800 | $7,660,224K |
| Millennium Management | 2026-Q1 | 96,364 | $2,705,901K |
| Citadel Advisors | 2025-Q4 | 18,880,600 | $470,126,940K |
| DE Shaw | 2025-Q4 | 3,400,316 | $84,667,868K |
| Millennium Management | 2025-Q4 | 1,717,000 | $42,753,300K |
| Point72 Asset Mgmt | 2025-Q4 | 811,600 | $20,208,840K |
| Two Sigma Investments | 2025-Q4 | 49,700 | $1,237,530K |
| Citadel Advisors | 2025-Q3 | 14,483,500 | $369,039,580K |
| DE Shaw | 2025-Q3 | 4,484,295 | $114,259,837K |
| Renaissance Technologies | 2025-Q3 | 3,395,558 | $86,518,688K |
| Millennium Management | 2025-Q3 | 1,925,000 | $49,049,000K |
| Point72 Asset Mgmt | 2025-Q3 | 195,900 | $4,991,532K |
Source: SEC 13F-HR filings. Values reported in thousands. 13F data is delayed ~45 days after quarter end.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| MRK | 0.657 | 0.469 | Moderate |
| BMY | 0.651 | 0.540 | Moderate |
| DHR | 0.628 | 0.485 | Moderate |
| AMGN | 0.594 | 0.489 | Moderate |
| A | 0.571 | 0.477 | Moderate |
| TMO | 0.569 | 0.385 | Moderate |
| AZN | 0.537 | 0.415 | Moderate |
| IQV | 0.530 | 0.390 | Moderate |
| ABBV | 0.503 | 0.280 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare PFE to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.