SBA Communications Corporation (SBAC)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicAt 21.4x earnings — a 55% discount to the sector average of 47.4x — SBAC is in the lower valuation range. Strong operational fundamentals (Piotroski 7/9) with Altman Z of 0.5. DCF fair value of $79 implies 64% downside based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics of SBA Communications reveal a stark dichotomy between operational efficiency and capital structure. While the ROIC-WACC spread of +7.6% indicates robust value creation relative to cost of capital, supported by an exceptional 37.4% net margin and high Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 suggesting strong financial health, these positives are neutralized by a negative equity multiplier of -2.42x in the DuPont decomposition. This leverage inversion drives the reported ROE to -22.1%, signaling that the company's return on equity is mathematically distorted by its balance sheet composition rather than reflecting poor operational performance or low asset turnover. The Altman Z-Score of 0.3 further flags elevated bankruptcy risk, creating a complex profile where high profitability metrics coexist with significant distress indicators and neutral insider activity over the last ninety days.
Valuation analysis presents a compelling disconnect between market pricing and intrinsic value models. Trading at 20.8x earnings significantly below the sector average of 87.1x suggests the stock is priced for substantial downside or perceived structural risks rather than growth potential. This discount aligns with a DCF fair value estimate that implies -40.3% downside from current levels, assuming an implied free cash flow growth rate of only 5.5% over ten years. The market appears to be pricing in conservative assumptions regarding the company's ability to sustain its high margins given the precarious capital structure indicated by the low Altman score and negative equity multiplier.
Risk-adjusted performance metrics highlight a persistent underperformance relative to traditional factor tilts, specifically a Fama-French Alpha of -10.55% annually. Although the stock exhibits a positive Value Factor tilt with an HML coefficient of 0.346, indicating it trades at a discount commensurate with value characteristics, this is offset by a neutral Profitability Factor (RMW) score of -0.100. The combination of negative alpha and low risk-adjusted returns suggests that despite the attractive valuation gap relative to peers, the stock has failed to generate excess risk premiums historically, leaving investors exposed to high distress metrics without commensurate factor-based compensation.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 5% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 6.3% | 8.3% | 10.3% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $129 | $56 | $18 |
| 3% | $188 | $79 | $30 |
| 4% | $300 | $113 | $46 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $196.21.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=8.3%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $79 (-64.1%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 6% below its 5-year average P/E of 24.2x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-22 | $1.2500 | 0.0% |
| 2026-03-13 | $1.2500 | +12.6% |
| 2025-11-13 | $1.1100 | 0.0% |
| 2025-08-21 | $1.1100 | 0.0% |
| 2025-05-22 | $1.1100 | 0.0% |
| 2025-03-13 | $1.1100 | +13.3% |
| 2024-11-14 | $0.9800 | 0.0% |
| 2024-08-22 | $0.9800 | 0.0% |
| 2024-05-22 | $0.9800 | 0.0% |
| 2024-03-13 | $0.9800 | +15.3% |
| 2023-11-15 | $0.8500 | 0.0% |
| 2023-08-23 | $0.8500 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like XLRE or SCHH, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell SBAC shares regardless of SBA Communications Corporation's individual fundamentals. We estimate $4.3B of passive capital is structurally linked to SBAC through 8 tracked ETFs. Index rebalances and ETF creation/redemption cycles can create noticeable volume spikes unrelated to company news.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in SBA Communications Corporation to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If SBA Communications Corporation (SBAC) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies Vanguard Real Estate II Index Fund Institutional Plus Shares (VRTPX) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with SBAC. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 28 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
SBAC Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 5 SBAC shares, reducing daily market volatility.
SBA Communications Corporation (SBAC) exerts notable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 2.3% of the State Street Real Estate Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLRE) and 1.5% of the Schwab U.S. REIT ETF (SCHH). Across 28 tracked ETFs, approximately 21M shares (20.1% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This high passive lock-up reduces the effective active float, which can amplify daily price volatility and momentum signals.
ETFs with Highest SBAC Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 28 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
SBAC Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for SBA Communications Corporation over the past year sits near $194.95 (17% of 252-day volume). The current price of $196.21 trades 0.6% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target. The highly concentrated volume profile (17% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
SBAC Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does SBA Communications Corporation convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
SBA Communications Corporation converts 53% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a healthy conversion rate indicating efficient capital management — the business generates substantial cash after reinvestment. The positive ROIC-WACC spread of 7.0% confirms that reinvested capital creates shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | 3 | $207.66 | $622.98 |
| 2026-05-13 | 13,789 | $213.61 | $2.9M |
| 2026-05-07 | 2 | $218.44 | $436.88 |
| 2026-04-29 | 2 | $217.59 | $435.18 |
| 2026-04-22 | 44,212 | $213.10 | $9.4M |
| 2026-04-14 | 1,165 | $220.24 | $256,579.6 |
| 2026-04-10 | 2,733 | $218.46 | $597,051.18 |
| 2026-04-06 | 1,515 | $204.04 | $309,120.6 |
| 2026-03-31 | 189 | $169.83 | $32,097.87 |
| 2026-03-26 | 32,359 | $165.15 | $5.3M |
| 2026-03-25 | 11 | $166.76 | $1,834.36 |
| 2026-03-10 | 44,173 | $195.93 | $8.7M |
| 2026-03-09 | 13,975 | $196.58 | $2.7M |
| 2026-03-05 | 70 | $196.43 | $13,750.1 |
| 2026-02-23 | 100 | $199.54 | $19,954 |
| 2026-01-28 | 862 | $186.79 | $161,012.98 |
| 2026-01-27 | 5,194 | $187.67 | $974,757.98 |
| 2026-01-26 | 68 | $187.16 | $12,726.88 |
| 2026-01-05 | 4 | $192.48 | $769.92 |
| 2025-12-23 | 39 | $190.63 | $7,434.57 |
| 2025-12-19 | 2,427 | $190.36 | $462,003.72 |
| 2025-12-10 | 55 | $189.29 | $10,410.95 |
| 2025-12-08 | 4,200 | $189.58 | $796,236 |
| 2025-11-12 | 97 | $202.84 | $19,675.48 |
| 2025-10-31 | 169 | $191.14 | $32,302.66 |
| 2025-10-28 | 185 | $197.30 | $36,500.5 |
| 2025-10-22 | 2 | $197.67 | $395.34 |
| 2025-10-16 | 1,570 | $194.45 | $305,286.5 |
| 2025-10-15 | 6 | $191.07 | $1,146.42 |
| 2025-10-14 | 168 | $188.12 | $31,604.16 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| CCI | 0.693 | 0.665 | Moderate |
| AMT | 0.668 | 0.598 | Moderate |
| VRTPX | 0.464 | 0.505 | Moderate |
| ATO | 0.440 | 0.392 | Moderate |
| AEE | 0.432 | 0.399 | Moderate |
| PNW | 0.407 | 0.349 | Moderate |
| LNT | 0.407 | 0.386 | Moderate |
| PSA | 0.398 | 0.375 | Moderate |
| ADC | 0.395 | 0.295 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare SBAC to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.