Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. (SWK)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicSWK trades at 32.5x earnings, roughly in line with its sector average of 44.7x. Strong operational fundamentals (Piotroski 8/9) with Altman Z of 2.0. DCF fair value of $17 implies 77% downside based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics of this industrial leader reveal a structural capital allocation challenge, evidenced by an ROIC-WACC spread of -4.9%, indicating that the business currently destroys value relative to its cost of capital. Despite a robust Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 and a strong Beneish M-Score of -2.78 suggesting high earnings quality, profitability is constrained by thin net margins at 2.7% offsetting solid gross margins of 30.3%. The DuPont decomposition clarifies that the modest ROE of 4.4% stems primarily from financial leverage (Equity Multiplier of 2.35x) rather than operational efficiency, as asset turnover remains stagnant at 0.71x while revenue contracts by 1.5% year-over-year. This disconnect between high-quality accounting scores and negative value creation highlights a company struggling to generate sufficient returns on its deployed capital base.
Valuation metrics present a significant discrepancy between market pricing and intrinsic worth, with the current P/E of 27.2x trading at a substantial premium compared to the sector average of 45.2x relative earnings power yet implying much lower growth expectations given the negative revenue trajectory. A DCF analysis suggests a fair value of $18, translating to an implied downside of -74.7% from current levels, challenging the market's assumption that future free cash flow will grow at the projected 9.0% annualized rate over the next decade. The stock appears priced for growth despite delivering contraction, creating a potential mean-reversion scenario if management can reverse the negative revenue trend to justify the multiple expansion embedded in the share price.
Risk factors are further illuminated by Fama-French alpha data showing an annual return of -18.43%, coupled with a Value Factor (HML) score of -0.288 that confirms a distinct growth tilt inconsistent with its value characteristics. While the Profitability Factor scores positively at 0.876, reflecting robust underlying margins, the lack of insider flow over the last 90 days offers no directional signal from management regarding capital allocation or strategic pivots. The combination of negative alpha, shrinking revenue, and a wide valuation gap suggests that current prices may be pricing in an optimistic recovery that fundamental metrics have not yet supported.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of -2% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 7.8% | 9.8% | 11.8% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $25 | $13 | $5 |
| 3% | $33 | $17 | $8 |
| 4% | $46 | $22 | $10 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $79.14.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=9.8%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $17 (-77.0%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 7% below its 5-year average P/E of 29.4x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedThe stock's current price of $71.89 is trading below its 50-day simple moving average ($81.95) but above the 200-day simple moving average ($72.29), suggesting a potential near-term bearish sentiment within an overall stable to slightly bullish longer-term trend. With a Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 28.5, indicating oversold conditions, this may signal that the security could be due for a period of upward correction based on current momentum levels.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-10 | $0.8300 | 0.0% |
| 2025-12-01 | $0.8300 | 0.0% |
| 2025-09-02 | $0.8300 | +1.2% |
| 2025-06-03 | $0.8200 | 0.0% |
| 2025-03-04 | $0.8200 | 0.0% |
| 2024-11-29 | $0.8200 | 0.0% |
| 2024-09-03 | $0.8200 | +1.2% |
| 2024-06-04 | $0.8100 | 0.0% |
| 2024-03-07 | $0.8100 | 0.0% |
| 2023-11-30 | $0.8100 | 0.0% |
| 2023-09-01 | $0.8100 | +1.3% |
| 2023-06-02 | $0.8000 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like NOBL or SPYD, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell SWK shares regardless of Stanley Black & Decker, Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $1.8B of passive capital is structurally linked to SWK through 8 tracked ETFs. Index rebalances and ETF creation/redemption cycles can create noticeable volume spikes unrelated to company news.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. (SWK) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies TARGET CORP (TGT) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 3 ETFs with SWK. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 26 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
SWK Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 7 SWK shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. (SWK) exerts notable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 1.4% of the ProShares S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats ETF (NOBL) and 1.1% of the SPYD (SPYD). Across 26 tracked ETFs, approximately 24M shares (15.2% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest SWK Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 26 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
SWK Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. over the past year sits near $72.29 (12% of 252-day volume). The current price of $79.14 trades 9.5% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
SWK Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. converts 48% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a healthy conversion rate indicating efficient capital management — the business generates substantial cash after reinvestment. The 52% reinvestment rate signals aggressive capacity expansion. However, the ROIC-WACC spread is negative (-5.2%), suggesting reinvested capital is destroying shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-13 | 6,313 | $78.88 | $497,969.44 |
| 2026-05-11 | 11,118 | $81.07 | $901,336.26 |
| 2026-05-08 | 1,425 | $80.20 | $114,285 |
| 2026-05-06 | 61,210 | $77.46 | $4.7M |
| 2026-05-05 | 59,890 | $74.87 | $4.5M |
| 2026-04-28 | 19,791 | $79.86 | $1.6M |
| 2026-04-22 | 19,062 | $76.25 | $1.5M |
| 2026-04-20 | 100 | $71.34 | $7,134 |
| 2026-04-17 | 6,099 | $68.47 | $417,598.53 |
| 2026-04-15 | 80 | $72.19 | $5,775.2 |
| 2026-04-10 | 419 | $73.43 | $30,767.17 |
| 2026-03-25 | 16,145 | $71.58 | $1.2M |
| 2026-03-20 | 432 | $69.05 | $29,829.6 |
| 2026-03-18 | 40 | $71.03 | $2,841.2 |
| 2026-03-17 | 20 | $71.08 | $1,421.6 |
| 2026-03-03 | 3,089 | $84.04 | $259,599.56 |
| 2026-02-23 | 731 | $91.96 | $67,222.76 |
| 2026-02-17 | 39 | $91.06 | $3,551.34 |
| 2026-02-10 | 26,020 | $89.85 | $2.3M |
| 2026-02-04 | 467 | $80.96 | $37,808.32 |
| 2026-02-03 | 23,239 | $79.15 | $1.8M |
| 2026-01-23 | 168 | $83.73 | $14,066.64 |
| 2026-01-20 | 13,487 | $84.61 | $1.1M |
| 2026-01-16 | 17 | $84.40 | $1,434.8 |
| 2026-01-15 | 7,465 | $83.79 | $625,492.35 |
| 2026-01-14 | 15,178 | $82.90 | $1.3M |
| 2026-01-08 | 107 | $78.69 | $8,419.83 |
| 2026-01-06 | 263 | $77.21 | $20,306.23 |
| 2026-01-05 | 93 | $76.47 | $7,111.71 |
| 2025-12-22 | 100 | $72.75 | $7,275 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| MAS | 0.796 | 0.739 | High co-movement |
| ITW | 0.723 | 0.685 | High co-movement |
| NDSN | 0.709 | 0.740 | High co-movement |
| PCAR | 0.707 | 0.696 | High co-movement |
| BLDR | 0.704 | 0.693 | High co-movement |
| DOV | 0.683 | 0.626 | Moderate |
| IR | 0.681 | 0.724 | Moderate |
| DD | 0.679 | 0.597 | Moderate |
| TOL | 0.676 | 0.653 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare SWK to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.