TMHC (TMHC)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicFinancial health is average: Piotroski 4/9, Altman Z 3.8. DCF fair value of $128 implies 112% upside from current prices based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe capital allocation efficiency appears constrained, as the Return on Invested Capital of 9.8% falls below the Weighted Average Cost of Capital at 11.5%, resulting in a negative spread that suggests value destruction rather than creation from core operations. This fundamental weakness is compounded by stagnant revenue growth of -0.6% and a Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, indicating moderate financial health with potential deterioration in profitability or leverage metrics over the trailing period. Despite these operational headwinds, the Altman Z-Score of 3.8 signals a low probability of bankruptcy, while a Beneish M-Score of -2.34 points to strong earnings quality and minimal likelihood of manipulation, creating an interesting divergence between current cash flow generation and balance sheet stability driven by high gross margins of 23.0% and net margins near double digits at 9.6%.
Valuation metrics present a significant discrepancy relative to historical norms and intrinsic value models. The current P/E ratio of 7.8x trades approximately 24% below its five-year average, suggesting the market has priced in substantial downside risk or anticipated continued revenue contraction. However, this depressed multiple contrasts sharply with a Discounted Cash Flow analysis implying fair value at $128 per share and an upside potential of 112.4%, assuming a long-term free cash flow growth rate of just 5.5% over the next decade. This wide gap implies that while current fundamentals reflect operational stagnation, the valuation model assumes a reversion to mean or significant future margin expansion not yet captured in today's earnings multiple.
The risk profile is nuanced by conflicting signals regarding credit safety and earnings integrity versus growth prospects. While the negative ROIC-WACC spread indicates poor capital efficiency, the robust Beneish M-Score supports confidence in reported profitability figures rather than suspect accounting practices. The Altman Z-Score provides a buffer against liquidity crises despite the lack of revenue expansion, yet the persistent inability to generate returns exceeding the cost of equity limits long-term shareholder value creation unless operational leverage improves or market share dynamics shift favorably.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of -1% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 9.5% | 11.5% | 13.5% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $154 | $116 | $92 |
| 3% | $175 | $128 | $99 |
| 4% | $203 | $143 | $108 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $71.50.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=11.5%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $128 (+112.4%). Not investment advice.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
Balance Sheet Health
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like XHB or MDYV, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell TMHC shares regardless of TMHC's individual fundamentals. We estimate $419M of passive capital is structurally linked to TMHC through 8 tracked ETFs. Passive flows have a limited but growing influence on TMHC's daily trading dynamics.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in TMHC to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If TMHC (TMHC) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies OWENS CORNING (OC) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 3 ETFs with TMHC. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 11 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
TMHC Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 12 TMHC shares, reducing daily market volatility.
TMHC (TMHC) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 3.4% of the XHB (XHB) and 0.3% of the MDYV (MDYV). Across 11 tracked ETFs, approximately 8M shares (8.0% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. As passive ownership grows, index inclusion changes may increasingly drive price discovery.
ETFs with Highest TMHC Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 11 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
TMHC Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for TMHC over the past year sits near $59.23 (10% of 252-day volume). The current price of $71.50 trades 20.7% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
TMHC Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does TMHC convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
TMHC converts 66% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, an exceptional conversion rate indicating an asset-light business model with minimal capital reinvestment drag. However, the ROIC-WACC spread is negative (-1.6%), suggesting reinvested capital is destroying shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-26 | 434 | $59.52 | $25,831.68 |
| 2026-03-23 | 6 | $57.30 | $343.8 |
| 2026-03-13 | 899 | $58.86 | $52,915.14 |
| 2026-02-24 | 1 | $66.68 | $66.68 |
| 2026-02-05 | 19 | $65.36 | $1,241.84 |
| 2026-02-04 | 1,200 | $63.57 | $76,284 |
| 2026-01-05 | 16 | $58.83 | $941.28 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| MTH | 0.917 | 0.893 | High co-movement |
| PHM | 0.910 | 0.884 | High co-movement |
| KBH | 0.902 | 0.870 | High co-movement |
| TOL | 0.875 | 0.824 | High co-movement |
| DHI | 0.859 | 0.823 | High co-movement |
| LEN | 0.828 | 0.736 | High co-movement |
| NVR | 0.750 | 0.598 | High co-movement |
| BLDR | 0.730 | 0.721 | High co-movement |
| LOW | 0.696 | 0.701 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare TMHC to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.