UDR, Inc. (UDR)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicAt 25.1x earnings — a 47% discount to the sector average of 47.4x — UDR is in the lower valuation range. Strong operational fundamentals (Piotroski 8/9) with Altman Z of 0.9. DCF fair value of $23 implies 34% downside based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics of this real estate operator present a distinct capital efficiency challenge, evidenced by an ROIC-WACC spread of -2.8%, indicating that current returns on invested capital fail to cover the cost of financing. While the DuPont decomposition reveals strong operational leverage with net margins at 22.1% and equity multipliers near 2.6x, this profitability is driven almost entirely by low asset turnover rather than high yield generation or aggressive gearing. Qualitative signals offer a mixed picture: the Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 suggests robust financial strength and operational momentum, yet the Altman Z-Score of 1.0 flags elevated bankruptcy risk relative to peers, while the negative Beneish M-Score of -3.11 points toward minimal earnings manipulation risks despite modest revenue growth of just 2.4% year-over-year.
Valuation metrics suggest significant compression relative to historical norms and sector benchmarks, with a current P/E of 30.7x standing well below the broader real estate average of 87.1x. However, absolute valuation models indicate downside pressure; the DCF fair value estimate implies a -30.2% discount from current levels based on an assumed long-term free cash flow growth rate of only 5.5%. This pricing disconnect suggests the market may be anticipating stagnation in capital appreciation or occupancy rates that are not yet reflected in earnings multiples, creating a scenario where low valuations coexist with weak implied growth trajectories.
Risk-adjusted performance data further complicates the investment thesis, as the stock has generated an annual Fama-French Alpha of -31.69%, underperforming its factor benchmarks significantly over the measured period. Although the security exhibits a positive tilt toward value factors with an HML score of 0.388 and neutral exposure to profitability anomalies (RMW: 0.043), recent insider activity remains flat at $0 over the last ninety days, offering no clear directional signal from management regarding future capital allocation or confidence in near-term operational expansion.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 2% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 6% | 7.8% | 9.8% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $32 | $17 | $9 |
| 3% | $46 | $23 | $11 |
| 4% | $73 | $31 | $15 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $36.84.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=7.8%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $23 (-34.4%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 3% below its 5-year average P/E of 32.2x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedThe 50-day moving average of UDR is slightly above its 200-day moving average, indicating a potential consolidation phase within an ongoing upward trend. With the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 38.3, which is below the neutral midpoint of 50, this suggests that UDR may be currently experiencing downward price pressure but could be nearing oversold territory.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
⚠️ Dividend consumes >80% of FCF — sustainability risk.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-15 | $0.4350 | +1.2% |
| 2026-01-12 | $0.4300 | 0.0% |
| 2025-10-09 | $0.4300 | 0.0% |
| 2025-07-10 | $0.4300 | 0.0% |
| 2025-04-10 | $0.4300 | +1.2% |
| 2025-01-10 | $0.4250 | 0.0% |
| 2024-10-10 | $0.4250 | 0.0% |
| 2024-07-10 | $0.4250 | 0.0% |
| 2024-04-09 | $0.4250 | +1.2% |
| 2024-01-09 | $0.4200 | 0.0% |
| 2023-10-06 | $0.4200 | 0.0% |
| 2023-07-07 | $0.4200 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like SPYD or XLRE, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell UDR shares regardless of UDR, Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $1.9B of passive capital is structurally linked to UDR through 8 tracked ETFs. Index rebalances and ETF creation/redemption cycles can create noticeable volume spikes unrelated to company news.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in UDR, Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If UDR, Inc. (UDR) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies Vanguard Real Estate II Index Fund Institutional Plus Shares (VRTPX) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with UDR. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 27 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
UDR Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 6 UDR shares, reducing daily market volatility.
UDR, Inc. (UDR) exerts notable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 1.2% of the SPYD (SPYD) and 1.2% of the State Street Real Estate Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLRE). Across 27 tracked ETFs, approximately 54M shares (16.7% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest UDR Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 27 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
UDR Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for UDR, Inc. over the past year sits near $37.30 (13% of 252-day volume). The current price of $36.84 sits 1.2% below the POC — suggesting potential mean-reversion upside if institutional demand reasserts at this level. The highly concentrated volume profile (13% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
UDR Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does UDR, Inc. convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
UDR, Inc. converts 48% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a healthy conversion rate indicating efficient capital management — the business generates substantial cash after reinvestment. The 52% reinvestment rate signals aggressive capacity expansion. However, the ROIC-WACC spread is negative (-2.9%), suggesting reinvested capital is destroying shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-12 | 382 | $37.15 | $14,191.3 |
| 2026-05-04 | 9 | $36.39 | $327.51 |
| 2026-05-01 | 5,493 | $36.34 | $199,615.62 |
| 2026-04-15 | 3 | $35.12 | $105.36 |
| 2026-04-09 | 985 | $35.02 | $34,494.7 |
| 2026-04-07 | 525 | $34.78 | $18,259.5 |
| 2026-04-02 | 378 | $34.24 | $12,942.72 |
| 2026-03-30 | 1,815 | $33.58 | $60,947.7 |
| 2026-03-25 | 1,137 | $34.11 | $38,783.07 |
| 2026-03-18 | 5 | $35.81 | $179.05 |
| 2026-03-17 | 9,106 | $35.63 | $324,446.78 |
| 2026-03-13 | 41,933 | $36.04 | $1.5M |
| 2026-03-12 | 438 | $36.06 | $15,794.28 |
| 2026-03-11 | 95,446 | $36.78 | $3.5M |
| 2026-03-02 | 40,748 | $37.50 | $1.5M |
| 2026-02-19 | 56 | $38.25 | $2,142 |
| 2026-02-12 | 39,204 | $39.77 | $1.6M |
| 2026-02-11 | 12,605 | $39.38 | $496,384.9 |
| 2026-02-10 | 2,227 | $37.75 | $84,069.25 |
| 2026-01-26 | 5,131 | $37.72 | $193,541.32 |
| 2026-01-23 | 1,471 | $37.55 | $55,236.05 |
| 2026-01-21 | 57,637 | $37.16 | $2.1M |
| 2026-01-02 | 8,175 | $36.68 | $299,859 |
| 2025-12-30 | 77 | $36.66 | $2,822.82 |
| 2025-12-26 | 918 | $36.43 | $33,442.74 |
| 2025-12-24 | 1,019 | $36.05 | $36,734.95 |
| 2025-12-22 | 7 | $35.65 | $249.55 |
| 2025-12-17 | 2,814 | $35.46 | $99,784.44 |
| 2025-12-16 | 2,814 | $35.79 | $100,713.06 |
| 2025-12-10 | 56 | $34.90 | $1,954.4 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| CPT | 0.876 | 0.832 | High co-movement |
| ESS | 0.856 | 0.841 | High co-movement |
| MAA | 0.853 | 0.833 | High co-movement |
| EQR | 0.851 | 0.795 | High co-movement |
| AVB | 0.831 | 0.791 | High co-movement |
| VRTPX | 0.761 | 0.650 | High co-movement |
| INVH | 0.750 | 0.681 | High co-movement |
| AMH | 0.734 | 0.726 | High co-movement |
| FRT | 0.660 | 0.628 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare UDR to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.