WEC Energy Group, Inc. (WEC)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicWEC trades at 22.3x earnings, roughly in line with its sector average of 24.4x. Financial health is average: Piotroski 5/9, Altman Z 1.1.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics of WEC Energy Group reveal a capital efficiency challenge, evidenced by an ROIC-WACC spread of -2.4%, indicating that current returns on invested capital fail to cover the cost of financing. Despite this valuation drag on cash flows, equity profitability remains robust at 11.1% ROE, driven primarily by high leverage (Equity Multiplier of 3.67x) rather than operational intensity or margin expansion; while net margins sit comfortably at 15.9%, the low asset turnover of 0.19x suggests a heavy capital base typical of regulated utilities. Credit and financial health metrics present a mixed picture: the Altman Z-Score of 1.1 signals elevated bankruptcy risk relative to historical norms, yet the Beneish M-Score of -2.44 strongly corroborates high earnings quality with no signs of manipulation, supported by a solid Piotroski F-Score of 5/9 and double-digit revenue growth of 14.0% YoY.
Valuation metrics place the stock in a modest premium position relative to its peers, trading at a P/E multiple of 24.4x compared to the sector average of 22.5x. This pricing implies that the market is anticipating sustained execution on its growth trajectory, though it does not fully account for the capital return inefficiency highlighted by the negative ROIC spread. The divergence between current multiples and the underlying cost-of-capital dynamics suggests investors are paying a premium for revenue visibility while overlooking the pressure exerted by high debt levels to generate sufficient absolute returns.
Risk-adjusted performance indicators suggest a nuanced factor exposure profile, with the stock generating a positive Fama-French Alpha of 3.53% annually despite exhibiting a value tilt (HML: 0.442) and neutral profitability momentum (RMW: -0.089). However, recent insider activity shows $5,222,668 in net selling over the last ninety days, which may signal management caution regarding current valuation levels or future capital allocation needs. These factors collectively paint a picture of a company with strong earnings integrity and revenue momentum but constrained by structural leverage issues that limit long-term value creation efficiency relative to its cost of equity.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 8% above its 5-year average P/E of 22.7x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedThe security WEC is trading above both its 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages, indicating an upward trend in the short to medium term. With a Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 54.7, it suggests that while the stock may be approaching overbought territory, it remains within a range consistent with ongoing price momentum.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | $0.9530 | 0.0% |
| 2026-02-13 | $0.9530 | +6.7% |
| 2025-11-14 | $0.8930 | 0.0% |
| 2025-08-14 | $0.8930 | 0.0% |
| 2025-05-14 | $0.8930 | 0.0% |
| 2025-02-14 | $0.8930 | +6.9% |
| 2024-11-14 | $0.8350 | 0.0% |
| 2024-08-14 | $0.8350 | 0.0% |
| 2024-05-13 | $0.8350 | 0.0% |
| 2024-02-13 | $0.8350 | +7.1% |
| 2023-11-13 | $0.7800 | 0.0% |
| 2023-08-11 | $0.7800 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like XLU or VPU, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell WEC shares regardless of WEC Energy Group, Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $6.6B of passive capital is structurally linked to WEC through 8 tracked ETFs. This substantial passive exposure means that ETF inflows and outflows — not company fundamentals — can dominate daily volume on this stock.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in WEC Energy Group, Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If WEC Energy Group, Inc. (WEC) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies NEXTERA ENERGY INC (NEE) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 2 ETFs with WEC. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 32 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
WEC Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 6 WEC shares, reducing daily market volatility.
WEC Energy Group, Inc. (WEC) exerts notable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 2.6% of the State Street Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLU) and 2.4% of the VPU (VPU). Across 32 tracked ETFs, approximately 58M shares (17.9% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest WEC Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 32 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
WEC Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for WEC Energy Group, Inc. over the past year sits near $110.30 (8% of 252-day volume). The current price of $110.23 sits 0.1% below the POC — suggesting potential mean-reversion upside if institutional demand reasserts at this level.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
WEC Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does WEC Energy Group, Inc. convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
WEC Energy Group, Inc. converts -25% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, negative FCF conversion — the company is consuming cash faster than it generates EBITDA, which is unsustainable long-term. The 125% reinvestment rate signals aggressive capacity expansion. However, the ROIC-WACC spread is negative (-2.4%), suggesting reinvested capital is destroying shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | 21,356 | $112.20 | $2.4M |
| 2026-05-13 | 1,653 | $112.58 | $186,094.74 |
| 2026-05-07 | 20 | $113.94 | $2,278.8 |
| 2026-04-15 | 3 | $116.50 | $349.5 |
| 2026-04-07 | 57 | $116.73 | $6,653.61 |
| 2026-04-06 | 15 | $117.58 | $1,763.7 |
| 2026-03-31 | 670 | $115.33 | $77,271.1 |
| 2026-03-25 | 33 | $113.08 | $3,731.64 |
| 2026-03-24 | 8,359 | $112.05 | $936,625.95 |
| 2026-03-23 | 6 | $112.18 | $673.08 |
| 2026-03-19 | 3,592 | $115.85 | $416,133.2 |
| 2026-03-16 | 20,852 | $117.35 | $2.4M |
| 2026-03-02 | 12 | $116.96 | $1,403.52 |
| 2026-02-26 | 55,292 | $115.42 | $6.4M |
| 2026-02-23 | 426 | $114.34 | $48,708.84 |
| 2026-02-20 | 31 | $114.22 | $3,540.82 |
| 2026-02-18 | 6,834 | $115.45 | $788,985.3 |
| 2026-02-10 | 81 | $111.32 | $9,016.92 |
| 2026-02-03 | 686 | $109.84 | $75,350.24 |
| 2026-01-29 | 1,054 | $110.04 | $115,982.16 |
| 2026-01-28 | 623 | $110.35 | $68,748.05 |
| 2026-01-26 | 69,803 | $109.10 | $7.6M |
| 2026-01-22 | 13,653 | $109.52 | $1.5M |
| 2026-01-09 | 57,080 | $105.23 | $6.0M |
| 2026-01-07 | 1,585 | $105.95 | $167,930.75 |
| 2025-11-28 | 10 | $112.24 | $1,122.4 |
| 2025-11-26 | 36,851 | $111.22 | $4.1M |
| 2025-11-25 | 14,200 | $111.02 | $1.6M |
| 2025-11-18 | 181 | $111.89 | $20,252.09 |
| 2025-11-12 | 251,967 | $112.50 | $28.3M |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| AEE | 0.858 | 0.830 | High co-movement |
| CMS | 0.836 | 0.792 | High co-movement |
| LNT | 0.823 | 0.839 | High co-movement |
| DTE | 0.818 | 0.777 | High co-movement |
| DUK | 0.808 | 0.764 | High co-movement |
| ED | 0.775 | 0.719 | High co-movement |
| PNW | 0.759 | 0.690 | High co-movement |
| CNP | 0.757 | 0.790 | High co-movement |
| SO | 0.746 | 0.679 | High co-movement |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare WEC to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.