Zoetis Inc. (ZTS)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicAt 12.7x earnings — a 80% discount to the sector average of 65.2x — ZTS is in the lower valuation range. Financial health is average: Piotroski 6/9, Altman Z 5.4. DCF fair value of $130 suggests 9% upside based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe company demonstrates exceptional capital efficiency with a robust ROIC-WACC spread of 11.7%, indicating value creation well above the cost of capital, while DuPont decomposition reveals that an impressive net margin of 28.2% and high leverage (equity multiplier of 4.64x) are primary drivers of its 80.2% ROE rather than asset turnover. Financial health appears solid given a Piotroski F-Score of 6/9, a strong Altman Z-Score of 5.5 suggesting low bankruptcy risk, and a Beneish M-Score of -2.44 that signals minimal earnings manipulation concerns; however, this profitability is currently decoupled from top-line expansion as revenue growth remains stagnant at just 2.3% year-over-year.
Valuation metrics present a mixed picture where the current P/E multiple of 19.6x sits below historical norms and sector averages, yet it trades near its DCF-derived fair value of $132, implying an annualized free cash flow growth assumption of only 11.5% over the next decade rather than explosive expansion. This pricing suggests the market has already incorporated expectations for steady but not accelerated earnings compounding, leaving little room for multiple compression if growth disappoints or upside potential if execution improves beyond current models.
Risk-adjusted performance data reveals a significant divergence between fundamental quality and relative momentum, as evidenced by a negative Fama-French alpha of -15.45% annually despite robust profitability factors (RMW: 0.207). While the stock maintains neutrality on value factor exposure with an HML score of -0.040, recent insider activity shows $2,540,964 in net selling over the last ninety days, creating a potential friction point between strong balance sheet economics and shareholder sentiment that warrants close monitoring before any capital allocation decisions are made.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 2% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 7.8% | 9.8% | 11.8% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $163 | $115 | $87 |
| 3% | $195 | $130 | $95 |
| 4% | $243 | $151 | $106 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $76.39.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=9.8%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $130 (+8.5%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 33% below its 5-year average P/E of 29.1x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-20 | $0.5300 | 0.0% |
| 2026-01-20 | $0.5300 | +6.0% |
| 2025-10-31 | $0.5000 | 0.0% |
| 2025-07-18 | $0.5000 | 0.0% |
| 2025-04-21 | $0.5000 | 0.0% |
| 2025-01-21 | $0.5000 | +15.7% |
| 2024-10-31 | $0.4320 | 0.0% |
| 2024-07-18 | $0.4320 | 0.0% |
| 2024-04-18 | $0.4320 | 0.0% |
| 2024-01-18 | $0.4320 | +15.2% |
| 2023-10-31 | $0.3750 | 0.0% |
| 2023-07-20 | $0.3750 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like MOAT or XPH, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell ZTS shares regardless of Zoetis Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $7.1B of passive capital is structurally linked to ZTS through 8 tracked ETFs. This substantial passive exposure means that ETF inflows and outflows — not company fundamentals — can dominate daily volume on this stock.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Zoetis Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Zoetis Inc. (ZTS) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies ELI LILLY + CO (LLY) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 2 ETFs with ZTS. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 34 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
ZTS Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 6 ZTS shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Zoetis Inc. (ZTS) exerts notable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 1.3% of the MOAT (MOAT) and 1.2% of the XPH (XPH). Across 36 tracked ETFs, approximately 67M shares (15.9% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest ZTS Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 36 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
ZTS Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Zoetis Inc. over the past year sits near $124.39 (20% of 252-day volume). The current price of $76.39 sits 38.6% below the POC — suggesting potential mean-reversion upside if institutional demand reasserts at this level. The highly concentrated volume profile (20% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
ZTS Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Zoetis Inc. convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Zoetis Inc. converts 56% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a healthy conversion rate indicating efficient capital management — the business generates substantial cash after reinvestment. The positive ROIC-WACC spread of 11.6% confirms that reinvested capital creates shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-08 | 136,932 | $87.31 | $12.0M |
| 2026-04-29 | 4,529 | $116.65 | $528,307.85 |
| 2026-04-23 | 2,620 | $117.52 | $307,902.4 |
| 2026-04-20 | 9,188 | $122.38 | $1.1M |
| 2026-04-15 | 3 | $121.11 | $363.33 |
| 2026-04-10 | 700 | $119.99 | $83,993 |
| 2026-04-09 | 2 | $119.75 | $239.5 |
| 2026-04-02 | 417 | $117.29 | $48,909.93 |
| 2026-03-31 | 5,108 | $116.33 | $594,213.64 |
| 2026-03-25 | 44 | $115.93 | $5,100.92 |
| 2026-03-23 | 1,862 | $115.67 | $215,377.54 |
| 2026-03-20 | 6,407 | $115.99 | $743,147.93 |
| 2026-03-16 | 4,440 | $115.62 | $513,352.8 |
| 2026-03-13 | 24 | $115.46 | $2,771.04 |
| 2026-03-10 | 50 | $122.36 | $6,118 |
| 2026-03-09 | 26 | $121.43 | $3,157.18 |
| 2026-03-06 | 63 | $122.23 | $7,700.49 |
| 2026-03-02 | 2,533 | $131.10 | $332,076.3 |
| 2026-02-24 | 1,194 | $125.79 | $150,193.26 |
| 2026-02-19 | 222 | $129.13 | $28,666.86 |
| 2026-02-11 | 284 | $128.13 | $36,388.92 |
| 2026-02-03 | 3,038 | $124.94 | $379,567.72 |
| 2026-02-02 | 22 | $124.82 | $2,746.04 |
| 2026-01-20 | 1,201 | $124.65 | $149,704.65 |
| 2026-01-14 | 24 | $124.62 | $2,990.88 |
| 2026-01-12 | 15 | $127.17 | $1,907.55 |
| 2026-01-08 | 7 | $125.67 | $879.69 |
| 2025-12-31 | 95 | $126.41 | $12,008.95 |
| 2025-12-22 | 11,462 | $122.24 | $1.4M |
| 2025-12-19 | 1 | $122.76 | $122.76 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| DHR | 0.480 | 0.419 | Moderate |
| VRTPX | 0.469 | 0.340 | Moderate |
| XRAY | 0.464 | 0.397 | Moderate |
| MTD | 0.454 | 0.347 | Moderate |
| A | 0.454 | 0.380 | Moderate |
| SWKS | 0.436 | 0.437 | Moderate |
| CRH | 0.436 | 0.406 | Moderate |
| PFE | 0.435 | 0.433 | Moderate |
| MTH | 0.434 | 0.372 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare ZTS to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.