Somnigroup International Inc. (SGI)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicSGI trades at 28.3x earnings, roughly in line with its sector average of 35.0x. Financial health is average: Piotroski 6/9, Altman Z 2.5. DCF fair value of $52 implies 34% downside based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics of Somnigroup International Inc. present a mixed profile characterized by robust top-line expansion but constrained capital efficiency. While revenue surged 51.6% year-over-year, the return on invested capital sits at just 5.9%, indicating that high growth is not yet translating into superior value creation relative to deployed capital. The DuPont decomposition reveals an ROE of 12.3% driven primarily by significant financial leverage (Equity Multiplier of 3.72x) rather than operational excellence, as the net margin remains modest at 5.1%. This structural reliance on debt is somewhat mitigated by a strong gross margin of 42.6%, yet the Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 suggests moderate financial health without clear signs of distress or aggressive manipulation, supported further by a Beneish M-Score of -2.47 which typically flags low earnings management risk.
Valuation metrics place the stock slightly below its sector average multiple despite elevated absolute levels; trading at a forward P/E of 39.6x against a consumer cyclical peer median of 42.1x, the market appears to be pricing in continued acceleration rather than applying a deep discount for leverage concerns. A discounted cash flow analysis implies an intrinsic fair value of $57, suggesting that current market prices may already reflect optimistic growth assumptions if they diverge from this baseline. The absence of insider trading activity over the past 90 days offers no additional signal regarding management's confidence in near-term prospects or potential capital allocation shifts.
From a risk-adjusted perspective, the combination of high leverage and sub-par ROIC creates a scenario where downside protection relies heavily on maintaining revenue momentum to justify the premium valuation multiple. The divergence between rapid top-line growth and stagnant capital returns introduces execution risk; if asset turnover fails to improve or margins compress under the weight of higher interest costs associated with the 3.72x equity multiplier, the current P/E expansion could prove unsustainable. Conversely, any operational improvement that boosts ROIC above its current 5.9% level would likely trigger a re-rating toward sector norms given the existing multiple compression relative to peers.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 52% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 9% | 11% | 13% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $66 | $46 | $34 |
| 3% | $77 | $52 | $38 |
| 4% | $93 | $60 | $42 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $67.98.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=11.0%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $52 (-34.3%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 13% above its 5-year average P/E of 37.7x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-21 | $0.1700 | 0.0% |
| 2026-03-05 | $0.1700 | +13.3% |
| 2025-11-20 | $0.1500 | 0.0% |
| 2025-08-21 | $0.1500 | 0.0% |
| 2025-05-22 | $0.1500 | 0.0% |
| 2025-03-06 | $0.1500 | +15.4% |
| 2024-11-21 | $0.1300 | 0.0% |
| 2024-08-15 | $0.1300 | 0.0% |
| 2024-05-15 | $0.1300 | 0.0% |
| 2024-02-21 | $0.1300 | +18.2% |
| 2023-11-15 | $0.1100 | 0.0% |
| 2023-08-16 | $0.1100 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like XHB or MDYG, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell SGI shares regardless of Somnigroup International Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $1.3B of passive capital is structurally linked to SGI through 8 tracked ETFs. Index rebalances and ETF creation/redemption cycles can create noticeable volume spikes unrelated to company news.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Somnigroup International Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Somnigroup International Inc. (SGI) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies TOPBUILD CORP (BLD) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 3 ETFs with SGI. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 15 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
SGI Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 11 SGI shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Somnigroup International Inc. (SGI) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 3.0% of the XHB (XHB) and 0.8% of the MDYG (MDYG). Across 15 tracked ETFs, approximately 20M shares (9.5% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. As passive ownership grows, index inclusion changes may increasingly drive price discovery.
ETFs with Highest SGI Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 15 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
SGI Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Somnigroup International Inc. over the past year sits near $84.13 (10% of 252-day volume). The current price of $67.98 sits 19.2% below the POC — suggesting potential mean-reversion upside if institutional demand reasserts at this level.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
SGI Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Somnigroup International Inc. convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Somnigroup International Inc. converts 63% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, an exceptional conversion rate indicating an asset-light business model with minimal capital reinvestment drag. However, the ROIC-WACC spread is negative (-5.1%), suggesting reinvested capital is destroying shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-13 | 41,947 | $65.55 | $2.7M |
| 2026-05-12 | 43 | $66.56 | $2,862.08 |
| 2026-05-11 | 53 | $69.31 | $3,673.43 |
| 2026-05-08 | 4,223 | $70.67 | $298,439.41 |
| 2026-05-07 | 11,632 | $78.62 | $914,507.84 |
| 2026-05-06 | 17,862 | $74.50 | $1.3M |
| 2026-05-01 | 2 | $75.86 | $151.72 |
| 2026-04-30 | 15 | $75.18 | $1,127.7 |
| 2026-04-29 | 21,862 | $77.45 | $1.7M |
| 2026-04-28 | 18,712 | $79.54 | $1.5M |
| 2026-04-27 | 139 | $79.06 | $10,989.34 |
| 2026-04-24 | 20,077 | $79.44 | $1.6M |
| 2026-04-22 | 4,654 | $81.95 | $381,395.3 |
| 2026-04-20 | 100 | $85.01 | $8,501 |
| 2026-04-13 | 84,046 | $78.06 | $6.6M |
| 2026-04-09 | 104,411 | $77.37 | $8.1M |
| 2026-04-07 | 3,479 | $74.37 | $258,733.23 |
| 2026-04-06 | 64,543 | $72.90 | $4.7M |
| 2026-04-02 | 349 | $73.61 | $25,689.89 |
| 2026-04-01 | 1,183 | $73.92 | $87,447.36 |
| 2026-03-31 | 206 | $69.37 | $14,290.22 |
| 2026-03-27 | 45 | $73.76 | $3,319.2 |
| 2026-03-26 | 6,098 | $74.71 | $455,581.58 |
| 2026-03-25 | 22,599 | $75.44 | $1.7M |
| 2026-03-24 | 25,097 | $76.15 | $1.9M |
| 2026-03-23 | 4,183 | $71.87 | $300,632.21 |
| 2026-03-13 | 1,667 | $76.63 | $127,742.21 |
| 2026-02-23 | 11,712 | $91.20 | $1.1M |
| 2026-02-19 | 28 | $90.12 | $2,523.36 |
| 2026-02-09 | 168 | $96.32 | $16,181.76 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| HST | 0.631 | 0.651 | Moderate |
| PH | 0.593 | 0.584 | Moderate |
| VMC | 0.587 | 0.608 | Moderate |
| BLD | 0.571 | 0.538 | Moderate |
| WMS | 0.569 | 0.677 | Moderate |
| TOL | 0.569 | 0.540 | Moderate |
| HD | 0.567 | 0.514 | Moderate |
| TMHC | 0.565 | 0.564 | Moderate |
| MLM | 0.564 | 0.554 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare SGI to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.