SKY (SKY)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicFinancial health metrics are strong: Piotroski 9/9, Altman Z 7.3 (above 3.0 safe zone threshold). Near modeled fair value — DCF estimates $77 (-3%).
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics presented by SKY indicate a company operating with robust capital efficiency, evidenced by an ROIC of 12.7% that comfortably exceeds its WACC of 11.6%, yielding a positive spread of +1.0%. This profitability profile is underpinned by exceptionally strong financial health metrics; the perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9/9 and a high Altman Z-Score of 7.3 suggest superior earnings quality and minimal distress risk, while the negative Beneish M-Score of -2.45 further signals low probability of earnings manipulation. The DuPont decomposition reveals that returns are driven by substantial gross margins at 26.7% combined with healthy net margins of 8.0%, all fueled by accelerating revenue growth of 22.7% year-over-year, creating a compelling narrative of value creation without reliance on excessive leverage.
Valuation analysis shows the stock trading near its historical norm, with a current P/E multiple of 21.7x differing by only -1% from its five-year average of 21.4x, suggesting the market has not significantly repriced relative to recent history. However, when compared against intrinsic value models, the security appears fully valued or slightly discounted; the DCF fair value calculation implies a price target of $77, which corresponds to -3.5% downside from current levels based on an assumed ten-year free cash flow growth rate of 10.9%. This indicates that while earnings momentum is strong, the market may already be pricing in significant future expansion, leaving limited room for multiple compression or value appreciation absent a material change in growth assumptions.
The synthesis of these factors presents a scenario where high-quality fundamentals are matched by neutral-to-slightly-negative valuation headroom relative to intrinsic models. The disconnect between robust operational metrics and a DCF-implied slight discount suggests that the market's required rate of return may be higher than implied, or expectations for future growth have been fully embedded in the current share price. Investors must weigh the certainty of superior capital allocation against the limited margin of safety provided by the valuation model before determining appropriate exposure levels.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 23% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 9.6% | 11.6% | 13.6% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $89 | $72 | $60 |
| 3% | $98 | $77 | $64 |
| 4% | $111 | $84 | $68 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $72.78.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=11.6%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $77 (-3.5%). Not investment advice.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
Balance Sheet Health
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2018-06-01 | $0.6240 | 0.0% |
| 2018-05-24 | $0.6240 | +593.3% |
| 2011-09-14 | $0.0900 | 0.0% |
| 2011-06-10 | $0.0900 | -50.0% |
| 2011-03-11 | $0.1800 | 0.0% |
| 2010-12-08 | $0.1800 | 0.0% |
| 2010-09-13 | $0.1800 | 0.0% |
| 2010-06-10 | $0.1800 | 0.0% |
| 2010-03-11 | $0.1800 | 0.0% |
| 2009-12-11 | $0.1800 | 0.0% |
| 2009-09-11 | $0.1800 | 0.0% |
| 2009-06-10 | $0.1800 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like XHB or SLYV, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell SKY shares regardless of SKY's individual fundamentals. We estimate $170M of passive capital is structurally linked to SKY through 8 tracked ETFs. Passive flows have a limited but growing influence on SKY's daily trading dynamics.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in SKY to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If SKY (SKY) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies MODINE MANUFACTURING CO (MOD) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with SKY. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 9 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
SKY Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 16 SKY shares, reducing daily market volatility.
SKY (SKY) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 3.1% of the XHB (XHB) and 0.2% of the SLYV (SLYV). Across 10 tracked ETFs, approximately 3M shares (6.3% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. As passive ownership grows, index inclusion changes may increasingly drive price discovery.
ETFs with Highest SKY Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 10 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
SKY Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for SKY over the past year sits near $74.34 (12% of 252-day volume). The current price of $72.78 sits 2.1% below the POC — suggesting potential mean-reversion upside if institutional demand reasserts at this level.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
SKY Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does SKY convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
SKY converts 62% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, an exceptional conversion rate indicating an asset-light business model with minimal capital reinvestment drag. The positive ROIC-WACC spread of 1.0% confirms that reinvested capital creates shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-04 | 22,009 | $76.90 | $1.7M |
| 2026-04-17 | 94 | $75.37 | $7,084.78 |
| 2026-04-14 | 15 | $79.69 | $1,195.35 |
| 2026-03-26 | 23 | $75.62 | $1,739.26 |
| 2026-03-19 | 3 | $75.13 | $225.39 |
| 2026-03-17 | 148 | $79.47 | $11,761.56 |
| 2026-02-24 | 4 | $95.28 | $381.12 |
| 2026-02-23 | 1,390 | $97.34 | $135,302.6 |
| 2026-02-02 | 3,027 | $78.38 | $237,256.26 |
| 2026-01-30 | 2,060 | $84.46 | $173,987.6 |
| 2026-01-15 | 11 | $95.56 | $1,051.16 |
| 2026-01-05 | 42 | $84.91 | $3,566.22 |
| 2025-12-29 | 47 | $85.54 | $4,020.38 |
| 2025-12-11 | 179 | $87.56 | $15,673.24 |
| 2025-11-25 | 33,488 | $81.87 | $2.7M |
| 2025-11-24 | 11,153 | $81.64 | $910,530.92 |
| 2025-11-21 | 18,974 | $78.87 | $1.5M |
| 2025-11-20 | 18,974 | $76.88 | $1.5M |
| 2025-11-19 | 19,530 | $77.50 | $1.5M |
| 2025-11-03 | 252 | $68.23 | $17,193.96 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| CVCO | 0.767 | 0.775 | High co-movement |
| MTH | 0.617 | 0.616 | Moderate |
| PHM | 0.575 | 0.569 | Moderate |
| TOL | 0.573 | 0.564 | Moderate |
| TMHC | 0.567 | 0.542 | Moderate |
| KBH | 0.554 | 0.531 | Moderate |
| LEN | 0.548 | 0.514 | Moderate |
| DHI | 0.534 | 0.535 | Moderate |
| PPG | 0.525 | 0.573 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare SKY to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.