Cavco Industries, Inc. (CVCO)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicAt 22.4x earnings — a 36% discount to the sector average of 35.0x — CVCO is in the lower valuation range. Financial health is average: Piotroski 5/9, Altman Z 10.7. DCF fair value of $425 implies 19% downside based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedCavco Industries exhibits strong fundamental quality, evidenced by a robust Altman Z-Score of 10.7 and a negative Beneish M-Score of -2.24 that signals low earnings manipulation risk. The company's profitability is driven primarily by operational efficiency rather than leverage or margin expansion; while the net margin sits at 8.5%, the DuPont decomposition suggests revenue growth of 12.3% acts as the primary engine for Return on Equity, supported by a healthy ROIC spread relative to its cost of capital. This financial stability is corroborated by a Piotroski F-Score of 5/9, indicating moderate but not exceptional fundamental improvement year-over-year.
Valuation metrics present a mixed picture where current multiples appear compressed against historical norms and sector peers. Trading at a P/E ratio of 23.4x, the stock commands only a marginal premium over its five-year average of 21.3x while significantly underpricing the broader Consumer Cyclical sector average of 36.4x. However, discounted cash flow analysis suggests the market is pricing in an implied free cash flow growth rate of 12.2% that may be overly optimistic relative to current asset values; specifically, a DCF fair value calculation indicates downside potential of approximately -18.9%.
Risk assessment reveals a divergence between defensive characteristics and valuation pressure. The high Altman Z-Score provides a substantial buffer against bankruptcy risk, yet the negative DCF upside implies that future cash flow assumptions required to justify current prices may not be fully supported by tangible asset growth or margin durability. While insider activity data is unavailable in this dataset, the combination of low manipulation scores and depressed valuation relative to sector peers suggests the market has priced in limited near-term expansion despite solid revenue momentum.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 12% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 8% | 10% | 12% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $508 | $385 | $312 |
| 3% | $587 | $425 | $335 |
| 4% | $705 | $477 | $363 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $545.93.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=10.0%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $425 (-18.9%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 5% above its 5-year average P/E of 21.3x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedCavco Industries, Inc. is currently positioned at $458.11 within the consumer cyclical sector, a classification that inherently ties its performance trajectory to broader discretionary spending trends and economic cycles. The proximity of this price point to recent historical peaks suggests an environment where valuation sensitivity may be heightened given the cyclical nature of housing-related demand. Without specific data on drawdown depth or volatility metrics, it remains unclear whether current levels represent a stabilized equilibrium following significant corrections or if they are forming at the apex of a potentially fragile upward extension driven by temporary market sentiment rather than sustained fundamental shifts. The structural integrity of any observed momentum relies heavily on external macroeconomic variables that directly influence consumer confidence and housing starts, key drivers for this sector. If recent price appreciation is decoupled from these underlying fundamentals, the risk profile could escalate quickly should economic indicators soften or if sentiment reverses. Conversely, resilience in pricing power amidst cyclical headwinds might indicate a more robust trend. However, absent concrete volatility measures to gauge potential swing severity or drawdown history to assess downside protection limits, characterizing this setup as either structurally sound or inherently precarious requires caution. The current technical picture reflects a snapshot of market valuation that must be weighed against the inherent unpredictability of cyclical sectors during transitional economic phases.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
Balance Sheet Health
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like XHB or SLYG, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell CVCO shares regardless of Cavco Industries, Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $149M of passive capital is structurally linked to CVCO through 7 tracked ETFs. Passive flows have a limited but growing influence on CVCO's daily trading dynamics.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 7 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Cavco Industries, Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Cavco Industries, Inc. (CVCO) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with CVCO. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 7 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
CVCO Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 24 CVCO shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Cavco Industries, Inc. (CVCO) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 3.4% of the XHB (XHB) and 0.5% of the SLYG (SLYG). Across 7 tracked ETFs, approximately 0M shares (4.2% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. As passive ownership grows, index inclusion changes may increasingly drive price discovery.
ETFs with Highest CVCO Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 7 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
CVCO Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Cavco Industries, Inc. over the past year sits near $545.28 (10% of 252-day volume). The current price of $545.93 trades 0.1% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
CVCO Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Cavco Industries, Inc. convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Cavco Industries, Inc. converts 68% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, an exceptional conversion rate indicating an asset-light business model with minimal capital reinvestment drag.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | 415 | $498.28 | $206,786.2 |
| 2026-03-23 | 1 | $460.16 | $460.16 |
| 2026-03-19 | 2 | $482.09 | $964.18 |
| 2026-03-10 | 1 | $526.63 | $526.63 |
| 2026-03-09 | 23 | $536.49 | $12,339.27 |
| 2026-02-27 | 1,732 | $576.29 | $998,134.28 |
| 2026-02-20 | 220 | $578.75 | $127,325 |
| 2026-02-18 | 1 | $585.29 | $585.29 |
| 2026-02-17 | 53 | $590.38 | $31,290.14 |
| 2026-02-09 | 97 | $538.73 | $52,256.81 |
| 2026-01-05 | 1 | $591.56 | $591.56 |
| 2025-12-26 | 1 | $603.72 | $603.72 |
| 2025-12-17 | 3 | $594.63 | $1,783.89 |
| 2025-12-16 | 1,284 | $598.17 | $768,050.28 |
| 2025-12-11 | 17 | $597.39 | $10,155.63 |
| 2025-12-10 | 56 | $569.85 | $31,911.6 |
| 2025-11-24 | 1,260 | $573.39 | $722,471.4 |
| 2025-11-13 | 4 | $562.08 | $2,248.32 |
| 2025-11-12 | 239 | $576.48 | $137,778.72 |
| 2025-11-07 | 103 | $573.88 | $59,109.64 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| SKY | 0.767 | 0.775 | High co-movement |
| MTH | 0.574 | 0.577 | Moderate |
| TOL | 0.546 | 0.559 | Moderate |
| TMHC | 0.535 | 0.514 | Moderate |
| MAS | 0.525 | 0.504 | Moderate |
| PHM | 0.519 | 0.517 | Moderate |
| BLD | 0.516 | 0.527 | Moderate |
| ITW | 0.514 | 0.485 | Moderate |
| PPG | 0.513 | 0.532 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare CVCO to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.