Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicADM trades at 35.6x earnings, roughly in line with its sector average of 32.6x. Financial health is average: Piotroski 4/9, Altman Z 3.1. DCF fair value of $431 implies 517% upside from current prices based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics of the business reveal significant capital efficiency challenges, underscored by a negative ROIC-WACC spread of -3.8%, indicating that current operations are destroying value relative to the cost of capital. This weakness is mathematically driven by thin net margins at 1.3% and declining revenue growth of -6.2%, which suppresses the top line despite moderate asset turnover of 1.53x; consequently, equity returns remain constrained with an ROE of only 4.7%. While the Altman Z-Score of 3.1 suggests a reasonable safety margin from bankruptcy, the low Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 signals deteriorating financial strength, and the negative Profitability Factor (RMW) further confirms that earnings power is lagging sector peers.
Valuation metrics present a complex dichotomy between current pricing and intrinsic model outputs. The stock trades at a P/E multiple of 33.1x, which sits above the sector average of 31.2x, yet this premium persists despite negative implied free cash flow growth over the next decade estimated at -6.1%. A discounted cash flow analysis suggests a substantial gap between current market prices and a fair value target of $408, implying an upside potential of approximately 461% based on these specific assumptions. However, such a wide valuation dispersion warrants scrutiny regarding whether the market is pricing in a fundamental turnaround or if the high multiple reflects temporary liquidity dynamics rather than sustainable earnings expansion.
Risk factor analysis introduces conflicting signals that complicate the risk-reward profile. The stock exhibits strong exposure to value factors with an HML score of 0.647, yet it simultaneously displays significant idiosyncratic volatility and a Fama-French alpha of 24.07%, suggesting historical outperformance uncorrelated with standard market drivers. This anomaly is particularly notable given the substantial net insider selling flow totaling $9.6 million over the last ninety days, which often precedes price corrections when management anticipates future headwinds.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of -6% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 6% | 8% | 10% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $569 | $366 | $265 |
| 3% | $744 | $431 | $297 |
| 4% | $1091 | $528 | $340 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $82.46.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=8.0%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $431 (+517.1%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 25% above its 5-year average P/E of 25.1x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedArcher-Daniels-Midland Company is currently trading at $77.52 within the Consumer Defensive sector, presenting a specific technical configuration for analysis. The presence of simple moving average crossovers often serves as a focal point for institutional capital allocation strategies, where shifts in these averages can indicate changing sentiment among larger market participants regarding medium-term value propositions. In this context, price action relative to these benchmarks may suggest whether major entities are accumulating positions or reducing exposure based on their proprietary models and risk assessments. Volume trends accompanying the current price level offer further insight into the intensity of institutional engagement. Sustained trading activity at specific price points can imply that large players are actively managing portfolios in response to sector-wide dynamics or macroeconomic factors influencing consumer staples. The alignment of volume with price movements helps distinguish between organic market flows and potential orchestrated positioning by significant holders who possess greater liquidity buffers than retail participants. Ultimately, the interplay between current pricing at $77.52 and broader technical structures reflects a complex landscape where institutional behavior is likely driven by long-term fundamental assessments rather than short-term speculation. Observers might interpret these signals as evidence of strategic repositioning within the defensive sector, though definitive conclusions regarding future direction remain dependent on evolving market conditions and undisclosed internal decision-making processes that guide large-cap fund managers.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-20 | $0.5200 | 0.0% |
| 2026-02-17 | $0.5200 | +2.0% |
| 2025-11-19 | $0.5100 | 0.0% |
| 2025-08-20 | $0.5100 | 0.0% |
| 2025-05-21 | $0.5100 | 0.0% |
| 2025-02-18 | $0.5100 | +2.0% |
| 2024-11-21 | $0.5000 | 0.0% |
| 2024-08-21 | $0.5000 | 0.0% |
| 2024-05-15 | $0.5000 | 0.0% |
| 2024-02-07 | $0.5000 | +11.1% |
| 2023-11-14 | $0.4500 | 0.0% |
| 2023-08-15 | $0.4500 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like XLP or DVY, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell ADM shares regardless of Archer-Daniels-Midland Company's individual fundamentals. We estimate $7.2B of passive capital is structurally linked to ADM through 8 tracked ETFs. This substantial passive exposure means that ETF inflows and outflows — not company fundamentals — can dominate daily volume on this stock.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Archer-Daniels-Midland Company to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies WALMART INC (WMT) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 2 ETFs with ADM. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 41 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
ADM Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 5 ADM shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM) exerts notable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 2.4% of the State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLP) and 1.8% of the iShares Select Dividend ETF (DVY). Across 42 tracked ETFs, approximately 106M shares (22.0% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This high passive lock-up reduces the effective active float, which can amplify daily price volatility and momentum signals.
ETFs with Highest ADM Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 42 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
ADM Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Archer-Daniels-Midland Company over the past year sits near $59.90 (14% of 252-day volume). The current price of $82.46 trades 37.7% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target. The highly concentrated volume profile (14% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
ADM Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Archer-Daniels-Midland Company convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Archer-Daniels-Midland Company converts 138% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, an exceptional conversion rate indicating an asset-light business model with minimal capital reinvestment drag. However, the ROIC-WACC spread is negative (-3.5%), suggesting reinvested capital is destroying shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | 3,673 | $82.89 | $304,454.97 |
| 2026-05-12 | 31,287 | $79.84 | $2.5M |
| 2026-05-11 | 5,400 | $77.66 | $419,364 |
| 2026-05-08 | 30,300 | $77.53 | $2.3M |
| 2026-05-01 | 15,885 | $74.54 | $1.2M |
| 2026-04-15 | 3 | $68.84 | $206.52 |
| 2026-04-14 | 932 | $69.82 | $65,072.24 |
| 2026-04-10 | 1,854 | $70.35 | $130,428.9 |
| 2026-04-06 | 1,943 | $73.83 | $143,451.69 |
| 2026-03-31 | 271 | $71.75 | $19,444.25 |
| 2026-03-25 | 48 | $71.44 | $3,429.12 |
| 2026-03-20 | 3,354 | $68.64 | $230,218.56 |
| 2026-03-19 | 27,370 | $70.87 | $1.9M |
| 2026-03-18 | 24 | $72.12 | $1,730.88 |
| 2026-03-17 | 21,987 | $70.75 | $1.6M |
| 2026-02-20 | 25 | $68.86 | $1,721.5 |
| 2026-02-18 | 764 | $68.57 | $52,387.48 |
| 2026-02-17 | 7,009 | $69.51 | $487,195.59 |
| 2026-02-04 | 993 | $67.39 | $66,918.27 |
| 2026-01-21 | 22,959 | $65.88 | $1.5M |
| 2026-01-20 | 1,501 | $65.18 | $97,835.18 |
| 2026-01-05 | 3 | $59.05 | $177.15 |
| 2026-01-02 | 174 | $57.49 | $10,003.26 |
| 2025-12-29 | 1,381 | $57.91 | $79,973.71 |
| 2025-12-19 | 50 | $58.30 | $2,915 |
| 2025-12-12 | 1,268 | $59.92 | $75,978.56 |
| 2025-11-28 | 158 | $60.55 | $9,566.9 |
| 2025-11-26 | 632 | $59.70 | $37,730.4 |
| 2025-11-20 | 100 | $58.23 | $5,823 |
| 2025-11-19 | 2,530 | $61.03 | $154,405.9 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| BG | 0.680 | 0.606 | Moderate |
| MOS | 0.420 | 0.512 | Moderate |
| DOW | 0.391 | 0.383 | Moderate |
| LYB | 0.378 | 0.350 | Moderate |
| NE | 0.368 | 0.443 | Moderate |
| TDW | 0.349 | 0.325 | Moderate |
| APA | 0.344 | 0.305 | Moderate |
| VRTPX | 0.339 | 0.280 | Moderate |
| OXY | 0.332 | 0.330 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare ADM to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.