CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicAt 10.1x earnings — a 72% discount to the sector average of 36.7x — CF is in the lower valuation range. Financial health metrics are strong: Piotroski 8/9, Altman Z 3.4 (above 3.0 safe zone threshold). DCF fair value of $237 implies 95% upside from current prices based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedCF Industries exhibits robust fundamental economics driven primarily by exceptional operating leverage rather than asset efficiency or financial distress. The company generates a 14.3% return on invested capital against an 8.4% cost of equity, yielding a +5.8% spread that signals strong value creation potential. This high-quality profile is underscored by a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 and a Beneish M-Score of -2.79, both indicating financial strength and low manipulation risk. However, the DuPont decomposition reveals that an 18.7% return on equity relies heavily on a 20.5% net margin rather than asset turnover or leverage; specifically, the firm operates with only 0.50x asset turnover and moderate 1.81x financial leverage, suggesting profitability is concentrated in margins while operational efficiency remains subdued relative to capital intensity metrics.
Valuation analysis presents a significant divergence between current pricing and intrinsic value models. Trading at a 14.5x forward P/E, the stock commands a substantial discount compared to its sector average of 36.1x, implying the market is not fully recognizing the firm's cash flow generation capabilities. A discounted cash flow model estimates fair value at $195 per share, representing a theoretical 50% upside from current levels based on an implied ten-year free cash flow growth rate of -3.2%. This negative long-term growth assumption contrasts sharply with the short-term revenue acceleration seen in recent periods, highlighting a potential re-rating opportunity if macroeconomic conditions support sustained demand for basic materials.
Risk factors and factor exposures introduce nuance to the risk-reward profile despite the attractive valuation metrics. The stock demonstrates a strong Fama-French value tilt with an HML alpha of 0.613, aligning well with its deep discount relative to peers. Conversely, the profitability factor (RMW) registers at -0.194, reflecting market skepticism regarding future margin sustainability despite current strength. Furthermore, insider activity over the last ninety days shows $72 million in net selling, which may signal management concerns or portfolio rebalancing that warrants monitoring alongside the quantitative signals of value and fundamental quality.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 19% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 6% | 7.5% | 9.5% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $277 | $200 | $145 |
| 3% | $358 | $237 | $162 |
| 4% | $520 | $296 | $186 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $113.48.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=7.5%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $237 (+95.0%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 34% above its 5-year average P/E of 10.1x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedCF Industries Holdings, Inc. is currently trading at $125.24 within the Basic Materials sector. Without specific data regarding its Simple Moving Average envelope boundaries or historical volatility ranges relative to this price point, a definitive assessment of mean-reversion potential cannot be calculated from the provided figures alone. The current valuation sits isolated without context on whether it represents an extreme deviation from recent averages or remains comfortably within a normal trading band. In technical analysis, identifying overbought conditions typically requires observing prices significantly above upper envelope thresholds, while oversold states suggest readings well below lower bands; neither scenario can be confirmed here due to missing comparative data points. The absence of information on the distance between the current share price and its moving averages prevents an evaluation of momentum exhaustion or potential snap-back dynamics. If the stock were trading near a long-term average, it might imply equilibrium rather than a strong corrective trend. Conversely, if this level represented a breakout from a consolidation pattern defined by prior envelope limits, different implications would arise. Since these critical distance metrics are unavailable, any speculation on whether the asset is poised for a reversion to the mean or continues an existing trajectory remains speculative without further technical context. Investors must await additional data points defining the specific moving average bands to accurately gauge relative value positioning. The current single price figure offers no insight into trend strength or statistical probability of future reversals until compared against its own historical performance envelopes. Consequently, determining if $125.24 constitutes a statistically
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-15 | $0.5000 | 0.0% |
| 2026-02-13 | $0.5000 | 0.0% |
| 2025-11-14 | $0.5000 | 0.0% |
| 2025-08-15 | $0.5000 | 0.0% |
| 2025-05-15 | $0.5000 | 0.0% |
| 2025-02-14 | $0.5000 | 0.0% |
| 2024-11-15 | $0.5000 | 0.0% |
| 2024-08-15 | $0.5000 | 0.0% |
| 2024-05-14 | $0.5000 | 0.0% |
| 2024-02-14 | $0.5000 | +25.0% |
| 2023-11-14 | $0.4000 | 0.0% |
| 2023-08-14 | $0.4000 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like XLB or VAW, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell CF shares regardless of CF Industries Holdings, Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $3.2B of passive capital is structurally linked to CF through 8 tracked ETFs. Index rebalances and ETF creation/redemption cycles can create noticeable volume spikes unrelated to company news.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in CF Industries Holdings, Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies Linde plc (LIN) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with CF. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 33 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
CF Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 5 CF shares, reducing daily market volatility.
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) exerts notable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 2.4% of the State Street Materials Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLB) and 1.2% of the VAW (VAW). Across 33 tracked ETFs, approximately 30M shares (19.5% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest CF Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 33 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
CF Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for CF Industries Holdings, Inc. over the past year sits near $83.38 (14% of 252-day volume). The current price of $113.48 trades 36.1% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target. The highly concentrated volume profile (14% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
CF Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does CF Industries Holdings, Inc. convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. converts 55% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a healthy conversion rate indicating efficient capital management — the business generates substantial cash after reinvestment. The positive ROIC-WACC spread of 6.8% confirms that reinvested capital creates shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | 10,162 | $125.50 | $1.3M |
| 2026-05-12 | 4,282 | $124.48 | $533,023.36 |
| 2026-05-01 | 139 | $124.20 | $17,263.8 |
| 2026-04-30 | 332 | $126.78 | $42,090.96 |
| 2026-04-27 | 100 | $120.93 | $12,093 |
| 2026-04-24 | 98 | $125.59 | $12,307.82 |
| 2026-04-23 | 98 | $122.46 | $12,001.08 |
| 2026-04-15 | 3 | $118.96 | $356.88 |
| 2026-04-06 | 1,090 | $129.97 | $141,667.3 |
| 2026-03-31 | 2,985 | $137.60 | $410,736 |
| 2026-03-23 | 96,727 | $124.90 | $12.1M |
| 2026-03-12 | 8,553 | $120.13 | $1.0M |
| 2026-03-09 | 18,651 | $115.78 | $2.2M |
| 2026-03-06 | 10,255 | $110.78 | $1.1M |
| 2026-02-25 | 4,447 | $96.11 | $427,401.17 |
| 2026-02-23 | 1,100 | $97.18 | $106,898 |
| 2026-02-06 | 21,952 | $91.32 | $2.0M |
| 2026-01-30 | 14,293 | $94.03 | $1.3M |
| 2026-01-20 | 700 | $86.75 | $60,725 |
| 2026-01-07 | 82 | $79.45 | $6,514.9 |
| 2026-01-05 | 700 | $80.13 | $56,091 |
| 2025-12-26 | 78 | $77.57 | $6,050.46 |
| 2025-12-23 | 7,020 | $77.43 | $543,558.6 |
| 2025-12-15 | 3,783 | $79.19 | $299,575.77 |
| 2025-12-12 | 2,321 | $78.66 | $182,569.86 |
| 2025-12-05 | 9 | $80.23 | $722.07 |
| 2025-12-04 | 19,971 | $79.29 | $1.6M |
| 2025-11-07 | 96 | $81.45 | $7,819.2 |
| 2025-11-06 | 81 | $85.05 | $6,889.05 |
| 2025-11-05 | 510 | $84.55 | $43,120.5 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| EOG | 0.531 | 0.623 | Moderate |
| MOS | 0.519 | 0.510 | Moderate |
| COP | 0.464 | 0.544 | Moderate |
| XOM | 0.459 | 0.527 | Moderate |
| LYB | 0.451 | 0.573 | Moderate |
| OXY | 0.448 | 0.607 | Moderate |
| SU | 0.444 | 0.441 | Moderate |
| SHEL | 0.440 | 0.474 | Moderate |
| MPC | 0.435 | 0.499 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare CF to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.