Air Products and Chemicals, Inc. (APD)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicAPD trades at 29.3x earnings, roughly in line with its sector average of 36.7x. Below-average fundamentals indicated by Piotroski score of 3/9.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics of Air Products and Chemicals currently exhibit significant distress, characterized by a negative ROIC-WACC spread of -9.4% that erodes shareholder value creation despite the company's historical capital efficiency profile. The DuPont decomposition reveals this deterioration is driven primarily by severe margin compression at -3.3%, which outweighs modest asset turnover dynamics; while the Gross Margin remains resilient at 31.4%, it fails to offset the bottom-line contraction resulting in a negative Net Margin of -3.3%. Quality metrics further underscore these structural challenges, with a Piotroski F-Score of 3/9 indicating weak financial health and an Altman Z-Score of 2.5 signaling proximity to distress territory, although the Beneish M-Score of -2.83 suggests earnings are not being manipulated downward.
Valuation metrics present a complex picture where current multiples appear detached from historical norms yet potentially aligned with sector averages given the deteriorating fundamentals. While specific absolute P/E figures for APD are not provided in the dataset, the available data points to a valuation environment that may be pricing in recovery rather than growth, especially when contrasted against a Sector Avg P/E of 41.0x which typically rewards high-growth or stable cash flow profiles absent here. The negative Fama-French Alpha of -26.07% indicates the stock has underperformed its risk-adjusted benchmarks over the annual period, suggesting current pricing does not adequately compensate for the observed downside risks relative to size and value factors.
Risk factor deltas highlight a concerning divergence between fundamental quality and market style preferences, as evidenced by negative alpha despite a positive Value Factor (HML) of 0.322 and Robust Profitability (RMW) score of 0.407 in the broader model context. This disconnect is exacerbated by significant insider activity, with $19,944,437 in net selling over the past 90 days, which often precedes further downside or signals management's lack of confidence near current price levels. The convergence of negative returns on invested capital, declining revenue growth of -0.5%, and substantial insider outflows creates a scenario where the stock trades at a premium to its intrinsic value generation capabilities while facing elevated credit risk implications from the Altman score.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedThe current technical landscape for Air Products and Chemicals, Inc. presents a complex tapestry of institutional positioning signals that warrant careful observation rather than immediate action. With the stock trading at $295.38 within the Basic Materials sector, the interaction between moving averages suggests a potential shift in momentum direction, often interpreted by larger market participants as a recalibration of medium-term expectations. When shorter-term SMAs begin to intersect with longer-term counterparts, it frequently indicates that institutional algorithms and fund managers are adjusting their exposure levels based on evolving valuation models or macroeconomic forecasts for the industrial chemicals space. Volume trends accompanying these price movements provide critical context regarding the conviction behind such positioning shifts. If trading activity surges during specific breakout attempts at key resistance levels while SMAs remain bearish, it may signal that sophisticated players are accumulating shares in anticipation of a trend reversal, effectively testing market liquidity without fully committing capital yet. Conversely, declining volume alongside sideways price action could imply that major holders are consolidating their positions or waiting for clearer directional confirmation before initiating significant new trades. The absence of decisive momentum indicators suggests that while the setup is evolving, the broader institutional consensus remains in a state of flux rather than displaying aggressive unilateral behavior. Ultimately, these technical features reflect an environment where larger entities appear cautious yet attentive to structural changes within the sector's price architecture. The convergence of mixed moving average signals and variable volume patterns indicates that institutional interest is likely being tested at current levels, with market makers potentially using this range
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-01 | $1.8100 | +1.1% |
| 2026-01-02 | $1.7900 | 0.0% |
| 2025-10-01 | $1.7900 | 0.0% |
| 2025-07-01 | $1.7900 | 0.0% |
| 2025-04-01 | $1.7900 | +1.1% |
| 2025-01-02 | $1.7700 | 0.0% |
| 2024-10-01 | $1.7700 | 0.0% |
| 2024-07-01 | $1.7700 | 0.0% |
| 2024-03-28 | $1.7700 | +1.1% |
| 2023-12-29 | $1.7500 | 0.0% |
| 2023-09-29 | $1.7500 | 0.0% |
| 2023-06-30 | $1.7500 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like IYM or XLB, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell APD shares regardless of Air Products and Chemicals, Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $8.2B of passive capital is structurally linked to APD through 8 tracked ETFs. This substantial passive exposure means that ETF inflows and outflows — not company fundamentals — can dominate daily volume on this stock.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Air Products and Chemicals, Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Air Products and Chemicals, Inc. (APD) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies Linde PLC (LIN) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with APD. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 31 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
APD Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 8 APD shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Air Products and Chemicals, Inc. (APD) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 4.8% of the IYM (IYM) and 4.7% of the State Street Materials Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLB). Across 30 tracked ETFs, approximately 29M shares (13.2% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest APD Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 30 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
APD Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Air Products and Chemicals, Inc. over the past year sits near $285.81 (11% of 252-day volume). The current price of $279.29 sits 2.3% below the POC — suggesting potential mean-reversion upside if institutional demand reasserts at this level.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
APD Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Air Products and Chemicals, Inc. convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Air Products and Chemicals, Inc. converts -282% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, negative FCF conversion — the company is consuming cash faster than it generates EBITDA, which is unsustainable long-term. The 382% reinvestment rate signals aggressive capacity expansion. However, the ROIC-WACC spread is negative (-9.1%), suggesting reinvested capital is destroying shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-05 | 1 | $298.35 | $298.35 |
| 2026-04-23 | 2,795 | $296.76 | $829,444.2 |
| 2026-04-22 | 78 | $294.78 | $22,992.84 |
| 2026-04-15 | 3 | $296.63 | $889.89 |
| 2026-03-30 | 210 | $292.19 | $61,359.9 |
| 2026-03-25 | 23 | $286.25 | $6,583.75 |
| 2026-03-20 | 2 | $284.15 | $568.3 |
| 2026-03-16 | 108 | $287.98 | $31,101.84 |
| 2026-02-23 | 1,500 | $281.18 | $421,770 |
| 2026-02-06 | 14,236 | $283.50 | $4.0M |
| 2026-02-05 | 14,200 | $286.59 | $4.1M |
| 2026-02-04 | 12,226 | $277.96 | $3.4M |
| 2026-01-23 | 129 | $264.04 | $34,061.16 |
| 2026-01-20 | 1,239 | $267.53 | $331,469.67 |
| 2026-01-13 | 205 | $267.04 | $54,743.2 |
| 2026-01-07 | 54,819 | $258.36 | $14.2M |
| 2025-12-31 | 928 | $248.82 | $230,904.96 |
| 2025-12-30 | 8 | $247.85 | $1,982.8 |
| 2025-12-23 | 1,995 | $244.78 | $488,336.1 |
| 2025-12-16 | 8 | $245.01 | $1,960.08 |
| 2025-12-15 | 97,003 | $243.00 | $23.6M |
| 2025-12-12 | 1,065 | $243.73 | $259,572.45 |
| 2025-12-10 | 2,365 | $230.76 | $545,747.4 |
| 2025-12-08 | 14 | $260.69 | $3,649.66 |
| 2025-12-01 | 65 | $261.05 | $16,968.25 |
| 2025-11-21 | 4 | $251.09 | $1,004.36 |
| 2025-11-10 | 1 | $259.74 | $259.74 |
| 2025-10-23 | 26 | $253.15 | $6,581.9 |
| 2025-10-14 | 96 | $260.86 | $25,042.56 |
| 2025-10-08 | 3,738 | $270.89 | $1.0M |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| LIN | 0.488 | 0.398 | Moderate |
| ITW | 0.454 | 0.304 | Moderate |
| EMN | 0.438 | 0.322 | Moderate |
| VRTPX | 0.437 | 0.195 | Moderate |
| BEN | 0.431 | 0.351 | Moderate |
| DOW | 0.413 | 0.310 | Moderate |
| PH | 0.412 | 0.313 | Moderate |
| PPG | 0.410 | 0.237 | Moderate |
| MTD | 0.409 | 0.268 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare APD to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.