Eastman Chemical Company (EMN)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicAt 21.9x earnings — a 40% discount to the sector average of 36.7x — EMN is in the lower valuation range. Financial health is average: Piotroski 4/9, Altman Z 2.4. DCF fair value of $29 implies 60% downside based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics of Eastman Chemical Company reveal a capital allocation challenge where the ROIC-WACC spread stands at -4.2%, indicating that current operations are destroying value relative to the cost of equity and debt. This negative spread is underpinned by an ROE of 7.8% driven primarily by financial leverage (Equity Multiplier of 2.46x) rather than operational efficiency, as asset turnover remains modest at 0.59x despite a healthy gross margin of 21.1%. While the Beneish M-Score of -2.67 suggests earnings are unlikely to be manipulated and the Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 reflects moderate financial strength, the Altman Z-Score of 2.3 signals elevated bankruptcy risk that warrants close monitoring alongside the reported revenue contraction of 6.7% year-over-year.
Valuation metrics present a significant divergence between market pricing and intrinsic value models, with the current P/E ratio of 18.1x trading at roughly half the sector average of 37.3x. However, discounted cash flow analysis estimates a fair value of $30, implying a substantial -61.2% downside from recent levels if the model's assumptions regarding long-term free cash flow growth hold true against an implied ten-year growth rate of only 17.6%. This deep discount appears to be priced in by the market, which has assigned negative Fama-French alpha of -46.93% annually over the measurement period, reflecting a consistent underperformance relative to size and value factors despite holding positive exposure to both the Value (HML) and Robust Margins (RMW) dimensions.
Insider activity remains neutral with zero net flow over the last 90 days, offering no clear directional signal from management regarding future capital deployment or confidence in turnaround strategies. The combination of negative alpha, a widening gap between ROIC and WACC, and a DCF-implied discount exceeding sixty percent suggests a high-risk environment where current valuations may already reflect pessimistic expectations about margin compression and growth stagnation within the basic materials sector.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of -7% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 7.4% | 9.4% | 11.4% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $40 | $24 | $15 |
| 3% | $51 | $29 | $18 |
| 4% | $69 | $36 | $22 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $76.67.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=9.4%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $29 (-60.2%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 50% below its 5-year average P/E of 36.0x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedEastman Chemical Company is currently trading at $68.15 within the Basic Materials sector, presenting a snapshot of its immediate market positioning relative to key technical benchmarks. The price level sits in close proximity to recent moving averages, suggesting that short-term momentum may be stabilizing rather than exhibiting aggressive directional acceleration or deceleration. Without specific numerical values for these averages, the visual alignment implies a potential consolidation phase where buyers and sellers are reaching a tentative equilibrium before establishing a stronger trend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) context remains ambiguous without its current reading, but in isolation, this metric typically signals whether an asset is approaching overbought or oversold extremes. Given the lack of extreme price deviations mentioned, the indicator likely reflects moderate momentum rather than a sharp reversal signal. This setup indicates that EMN is not currently displaying definitive signs of a breakout above resistance levels or a breakdown below support zones defined by its moving average structure. Ultimately, the technical picture suggests a period of relative stability where significant directional moves are yet to be confirmed. Traders monitoring this asset should watch for price action breaking decisively away from these current averages and RSI readings shifting toward extreme values as potential confirmation of a new trend direction. The absence of clear bullish or bearish divergence in the provided data leaves the immediate trajectory open, requiring further observation of volume and subsequent candle formations to determine if the current consolidation will lead to an upward push or continued lateral movement within this sector.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
⚠️ Dividend consumes >80% of FCF — sustainability risk.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-13 | $0.8400 | 0.0% |
| 2025-12-15 | $0.8400 | +1.2% |
| 2025-09-15 | $0.8300 | 0.0% |
| 2025-06-13 | $0.8300 | 0.0% |
| 2025-03-14 | $0.8300 | 0.0% |
| 2024-12-16 | $0.8300 | +2.5% |
| 2024-09-16 | $0.8100 | 0.0% |
| 2024-06-17 | $0.8100 | 0.0% |
| 2024-03-14 | $0.8100 | 0.0% |
| 2023-12-15 | $0.8100 | +2.5% |
| 2023-09-14 | $0.7900 | 0.0% |
| 2023-06-14 | $0.7900 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like SLYV or IJS, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell EMN shares regardless of Eastman Chemical Company's individual fundamentals. We estimate $643M of passive capital is structurally linked to EMN through 8 tracked ETFs. Passive flows have a limited but growing influence on EMN's daily trading dynamics.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Eastman Chemical Company to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Eastman Chemical Company (EMN) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies Linde plc (LIN) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with EMN. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 14 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
EMN Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 13 EMN shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Eastman Chemical Company (EMN) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 1.0% of the SLYV (SLYV) and 1.0% of the IJS (IJS). Across 14 tracked ETFs, approximately 9M shares (7.8% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. As passive ownership grows, index inclusion changes may increasingly drive price discovery.
ETFs with Highest EMN Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 14 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
EMN Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Eastman Chemical Company over the past year sits near $60.27 (10% of 252-day volume). The current price of $76.67 trades 27.2% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
EMN Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Eastman Chemical Company convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Eastman Chemical Company converts 33% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a moderate conversion rate — significant EBITDA is consumed by capital expenditures, working capital changes, or interest payments. The 67% reinvestment rate signals aggressive capacity expansion. However, the ROIC-WACC spread is negative (-4.3%), suggesting reinvested capital is destroying shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-12 | 75 | $74.64 | $5,598 |
| 2026-05-05 | 753 | $76.72 | $57,770.16 |
| 2026-04-30 | 1,072 | $70.42 | $75,490.24 |
| 2026-04-28 | 2,852 | $72.11 | $205,657.72 |
| 2026-04-23 | 158 | $72.53 | $11,459.74 |
| 2026-04-22 | 75 | $72.46 | $5,434.5 |
| 2026-04-13 | 1,172 | $74.25 | $87,021 |
| 2026-04-06 | 48,149 | $75.07 | $3.6M |
| 2026-04-02 | 189 | $75.81 | $14,328.09 |
| 2026-04-01 | 1,196 | $76.32 | $91,278.72 |
| 2026-03-27 | 314 | $72.50 | $22,765 |
| 2026-03-26 | 44,388 | $71.40 | $3.2M |
| 2026-03-18 | 21,440 | $71.27 | $1.5M |
| 2026-03-17 | 31,032 | $69.57 | $2.2M |
| 2026-03-04 | 40 | $74.16 | $2,966.4 |
| 2026-02-23 | 5,077 | $79.16 | $401,895.32 |
| 2026-02-19 | 6,969 | $80.26 | $559,331.94 |
| 2026-02-04 | 824 | $75.90 | $62,541.6 |
| 2026-02-03 | 141 | $71.48 | $10,078.68 |
| 2026-01-29 | 715 | $69.03 | $49,356.45 |
| 2026-01-26 | 9,638 | $68.71 | $662,226.98 |
| 2026-01-23 | 13,109 | $68.95 | $903,865.55 |
| 2026-01-22 | 3,332 | $68.30 | $227,575.6 |
| 2026-01-09 | 63,636 | $68.78 | $4.4M |
| 2025-12-18 | 16 | $63.93 | $1,022.88 |
| 2025-12-15 | 12 | $65.12 | $781.44 |
| 2025-12-12 | 32 | $65.84 | $2,106.88 |
| 2025-10-30 | 46 | $61.08 | $2,809.68 |
| 2025-10-28 | 1,775 | $63.78 | $113,209.5 |
| 2025-10-20 | 699 | $61.28 | $42,834.72 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| DD | 0.680 | 0.644 | Moderate |
| IR | 0.649 | 0.513 | Moderate |
| ITW | 0.621 | 0.596 | Moderate |
| CE | 0.617 | 0.617 | Moderate |
| DOW | 0.616 | 0.564 | Moderate |
| SWK | 0.610 | 0.640 | Moderate |
| NDSN | 0.592 | 0.584 | Moderate |
| PPG | 0.590 | 0.568 | Moderate |
| GWW | 0.590 | 0.514 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare EMN to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.