W.W. Grainger, Inc. (GWW)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicGWW trades at 33.2x earnings, roughly in line with its sector average of 44.7x. Financial health is average: Piotroski 6/9, Altman Z 12.6. DCF fair value of $189 implies 84% downside based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics of W.W. Grainger, Inc. exhibit exceptional capital efficiency and operational leverage, underscored by a robust 17.0% ROIC-WACC spread that signals strong value creation potential relative to its cost of capital. This high return on invested capital is driven primarily by superior asset turnover at 2.00x rather than financial leverage or margin expansion alone, resulting in an impressive DuPont ROE of 41.2%. Credit and earnings quality metrics further validate this strength; the company boasts a pristine Altman Z-Score of 12.2 indicating negligible bankruptcy risk, while a Beneish M-Score of -2.55 suggests highly transparent financial reporting supported by a solid Piotroski F-Score of 6/9. However, growth momentum appears muted with revenue expanding only 4.5% year-over-year, creating a divergence where the quality of earnings remains high but top-line acceleration is subdued.
Valuation dynamics present a complex picture when juxtaposed against intrinsic value models and market pricing. The current P/E ratio of 31.5x trades slightly below the sector average of 32.1x, suggesting relative modesty compared to peers despite premium characteristics. Yet, this valuation stands in stark contrast to DCF-derived fair value estimates which imply a significant discount; with implied FCF growth assumed at an aggressive 30.9% over ten years, the model calculates a fair value of $189, representing -82.7% downside from current levels. This substantial gap between market price and discounted cash flow valuations indicates that the market may be pricing in persistent headwinds or discounting future growth potential far more heavily than standard terminal assumptions allow.
Risk factor analysis reveals a mixed signal regarding relative performance and insider sentiment. The stock has underperformed on a risk-adjusted basis, evidenced by an annual Fama-French Alpha of -2.33%, while simultaneously benefiting from specific style factors including a positive Value tilt (HML 0.401) and robust profitability exposure (RMW 0.339). Compounding these quantitative signals is notable insider activity over the last 90 days, characterized by $2,490,393 in net selling, which often precedes periods of consolidation or strategic reassessment within management. Collectively, these data points suggest a high-quality business currently trading at a steep discount to its DCF model but facing headwinds reflected in both relative underperformance and insider disposition flows.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 5% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 9.2% | 11.2% | 13.2% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $226 | $172 | $137 |
| 3% | $257 | $189 | $147 |
| 4% | $300 | $210 | $160 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $1268.36.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=11.2%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $189 (-83.8%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 51% below its 5-year average P/E of 68.1x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedThe current price action for W.W. Grainger, Inc. at $1239.26 within the Industrials sector presents a snapshot where institutional positioning can be inferred through specific technical structures without explicit directional mandates. While raw numerical data is not provided in this prompt, the analysis of such setups typically revolves around how moving average crossovers reflect shifts in momentum that larger market participants often monitor for trend confirmation or potential reversals. If short-term averages were to intersect with longer-term ones near these levels, it could signal a consolidation phase where institutions are either accumulating positions during perceived value zones or rotating capital out of the asset following extended rallies. Volume trends serve as a critical lens for understanding whether price movements have broad participation from major funds. In scenarios where volume spikes accompany price advances toward $1239.26, it may indicate that institutional players are actively supporting higher prices through significant order flow, suggesting confidence in the stock's near-term trajectory. Conversely, if price rises on diminishing volume, larger entities might be taking profits or waiting for a clearer catalyst before committing additional capital, leading to potential stagnation until new information alters the risk-reward profile. Ultimately, the interplay between these technical indicators offers observers clues about the underlying sentiment of sophisticated investors rather than dictating specific actions. The positioning at this price level reflects a dynamic balance where institutional behavior is likely influenced by broader sector trends in Industrials and company-specific fundamentals that are not visible here. Market participants analyzing such setups
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-11 | $2.4900 | +10.2% |
| 2026-02-09 | $2.2600 | 0.0% |
| 2025-11-10 | $2.2600 | 0.0% |
| 2025-08-11 | $2.2600 | 0.0% |
| 2025-05-12 | $2.2600 | +10.2% |
| 2025-02-10 | $2.0500 | 0.0% |
| 2024-11-08 | $2.0500 | 0.0% |
| 2024-08-12 | $2.0500 | 0.0% |
| 2024-05-10 | $2.0500 | +10.2% |
| 2024-02-09 | $1.8600 | 0.0% |
| 2023-11-10 | $1.8600 | 0.0% |
| 2023-08-11 | $1.8600 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like NOBL or VOT, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell GWW shares regardless of W.W. Grainger, Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $7.7B of passive capital is structurally linked to GWW through 8 tracked ETFs. This substantial passive exposure means that ETF inflows and outflows — not company fundamentals — can dominate daily volume on this stock.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in W.W. Grainger, Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If W.W. Grainger, Inc. (GWW) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies CATERPILLAR INC (CAT) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with GWW. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 32 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
GWW Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 7 GWW shares, reducing daily market volatility.
W.W. Grainger, Inc. (GWW) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 1.5% of the ProShares S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats ETF (NOBL) and 1.2% of the VOT (VOT). Across 32 tracked ETFs, approximately 7M shares (15.0% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest GWW Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 32 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
GWW Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for W.W. Grainger, Inc. over the past year sits near $1028.70 (13% of 252-day volume). The current price of $1268.36 trades 23.3% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target. The highly concentrated volume profile (13% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
GWW Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does W.W. Grainger, Inc. convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
W.W. Grainger, Inc. converts 48% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a healthy conversion rate indicating efficient capital management — the business generates substantial cash after reinvestment. The 52% reinvestment rate signals aggressive capacity expansion. The positive ROIC-WACC spread of 17.0% confirms that reinvested capital creates shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | 1 | $1252.85 | $1,252.85 |
| 2026-05-12 | 2,060 | $1226.09 | $2.5M |
| 2026-04-16 | 5 | $1143.35 | $5,716.75 |
| 2026-04-13 | 1,234 | $1172.07 | $1.4M |
| 2026-04-10 | 507 | $1172.21 | $594,310.47 |
| 2026-04-07 | 1 | $1117.24 | $1,117.24 |
| 2026-03-31 | 114 | $1057.22 | $120,523.08 |
| 2026-03-25 | 6 | $1065.40 | $6,392.4 |
| 2026-03-23 | 15 | $1041.95 | $15,629.25 |
| 2026-03-03 | 451 | $1152.25 | $519,664.75 |
| 2026-03-02 | 19 | $1144.73 | $21,749.87 |
| 2026-02-12 | 6,320 | $1202.47 | $7.6M |
| 2026-02-09 | 105 | $1197.65 | $125,753.25 |
| 2026-02-03 | 1,107 | $1096.18 | $1.2M |
| 2026-01-30 | 6,462 | $1082.21 | $7.0M |
| 2026-01-12 | 1 | $1029.82 | $1,029.82 |
| 2026-01-09 | 2 | $1033.33 | $2,066.66 |
| 2026-01-06 | 1 | $1015.06 | $1,015.06 |
| 2026-01-05 | 2 | $1003.81 | $2,007.62 |
| 2025-12-30 | 30 | $1026.31 | $30,789.3 |
| 2025-12-29 | 2,656 | $1024.28 | $2.7M |
| 2025-11-25 | 27,626 | $929.96 | $25.7M |
| 2025-11-24 | 5,193 | $952.15 | $4.9M |
| 2025-11-04 | 1,746 | $966.32 | $1.7M |
| 2025-11-03 | 349 | $979.00 | $341,671 |
| 2025-10-21 | 1 | $970.92 | $970.92 |
| 2025-10-07 | 12 | $958.90 | $11,506.8 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| IR | 0.645 | 0.638 | Moderate |
| FAST | 0.618 | 0.647 | Moderate |
| ITW | 0.600 | 0.636 | Moderate |
| EMN | 0.590 | 0.514 | Moderate |
| PCAR | 0.566 | 0.674 | Moderate |
| ODFL | 0.544 | 0.611 | Moderate |
| AME | 0.521 | 0.535 | Moderate |
| DOV | 0.519 | 0.510 | Moderate |
| EMR | 0.517 | 0.597 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare GWW to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.