PACCAR Inc (PCAR)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicAt 23.5x earnings — a 48% discount to the sector average of 44.7x — PCAR is in the lower valuation range. Financial health is average: Piotroski 4/9, Altman Z 3.7. DCF fair value of $185 implies 45% upside from current prices based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics of PACCAR Inc reveal a capital allocation challenge where the return on invested capital sits at 7.0%, falling short of the estimated cost of equity at 10.2% to produce a negative ROIC-WACC spread of -3.1%. Despite this efficiency drag, earnings per share are supported by financial leverage rather than operational intensity; the DuPont decomposition shows that an equity multiplier of 2.30x is driving a 12.3% return on equity, while asset turnover remains modest at 0.64x and net margins hold steady at 8.3%. Credit metrics present a mixed picture with an Altman Z-Score of 3.6 indicating moderate solvency risk, whereas the low Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 suggests deteriorating financial health relative to historical strength, though the negative Beneish M-Score of -2.50 points toward minimal earnings manipulation concerns.
Valuation metrics suggest a divergence between current market pricing and intrinsic value models derived from free cash flow projections. The stock trades at a forward P/E multiple of 26.2x, which is notably compressed against the sector average of 32.1x, yet this discount may reflect the company's negative capital efficiency spread rather than pure undervaluation. A discounted cash flow analysis implies a fair value significantly higher than current levels, driven by an assumption of robust long-term free cash flow growth averaging 8.5% over the next decade. This implied trajectory contrasts sharply with recent operational headwinds, as revenue contracted by 15.5% year-over-year, forcing the market to price in a reversion to mean or successful strategic pivots not yet fully realized in earnings.
Risk-adjusted performance indicators highlight specific factor exposures that influence relative positioning within the Industrials sector. The stock exhibits a positive Fama-French alpha of 0.86% annually and benefits from value (HML) and robust profitability (RMW) factors, suggesting it has outperformed its benchmark peers on a risk-adjusted basis despite recent operational setbacks. However, insider activity over the last ninety days shows substantial net selling totaling $21.1 million, which warrants scrutiny given the disconnect between the high DCF-implied upside of 64.2% and management's disposition behavior. These divergent signals—strong theoretical valuation support versus active insider distribution and negative capital spread—create a complex risk-reward profile requiring careful assessment of whether current price levels adequately compensate for underlying operational deterioration.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of -16% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 8.3% | 10.3% | 12.3% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $226 | $165 | $128 |
| 3% | $264 | $185 | $140 |
| 4% | $319 | $210 | $154 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $112.89.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=10.3%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $185 (+45.0%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 16% above its 5-year average P/E of 24.2x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedThe 50-day moving average of $121.99 is above the 200-day moving average of $103.59, indicating an upward trend in the stock price over recent months but suggesting some near-term weakness as it trades below its shorter-term mean. With a Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 38.4, which falls within oversold territory, this may signal that the security could be due for a potential rebound if current support levels hold.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-13 | $0.3500 | +6.1% |
| 2026-02-11 | $0.3300 | -76.4% |
| 2025-12-19 | $1.4000 | +324.2% |
| 2025-11-12 | $0.3300 | 0.0% |
| 2025-08-14 | $0.3300 | 0.0% |
| 2025-05-14 | $0.3300 | 0.0% |
| 2025-02-12 | $0.3300 | -89.0% |
| 2024-12-20 | $3.0000 | +900.0% |
| 2024-11-13 | $0.3000 | 0.0% |
| 2024-08-15 | $0.3000 | 0.0% |
| 2024-05-14 | $0.3000 | +11.1% |
| 2024-02-14 | $0.2700 | -91.6% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like VOE or XLI, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell PCAR shares regardless of PACCAR Inc's individual fundamentals. We estimate $9.7B of passive capital is structurally linked to PCAR through 8 tracked ETFs. This substantial passive exposure means that ETF inflows and outflows — not company fundamentals — can dominate daily volume on this stock.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in PACCAR Inc to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If PACCAR Inc (PCAR) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies CATERPILLAR INC (CAT) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with PCAR. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 32 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
PCAR Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 6 PCAR shares, reducing daily market volatility.
PACCAR Inc (PCAR) exerts notable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 1.1% of the VOE (VOE) and 1.1% of the State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLI). Across 32 tracked ETFs, approximately 88M shares (16.8% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest PCAR Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 32 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
PCAR Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for PACCAR Inc over the past year sits near $97.88 (14% of 252-day volume). The current price of $112.89 trades 15.3% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target. The highly concentrated volume profile (14% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
PCAR Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does PACCAR Inc convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
PACCAR Inc converts 80% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, an exceptional conversion rate indicating an asset-light business model with minimal capital reinvestment drag. However, the ROIC-WACC spread is negative (-3.3%), suggesting reinvested capital is destroying shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-12 | 41 | $112.96 | $4,631.36 |
| 2026-05-06 | 4 | $113.42 | $453.68 |
| 2026-05-05 | 1,577 | $114.37 | $180,361.49 |
| 2026-05-04 | 330 | $116.08 | $38,306.4 |
| 2026-04-30 | 8,633 | $118.14 | $1.0M |
| 2026-04-27 | 4 | $127.00 | $508 |
| 2026-04-23 | 2 | $125.27 | $250.54 |
| 2026-04-22 | 29 | $126.18 | $3,659.22 |
| 2026-04-17 | 3,009 | $124.37 | $374,229.33 |
| 2026-04-16 | 3,075 | $123.48 | $379,701 |
| 2026-04-15 | 8 | $125.43 | $1,003.44 |
| 2026-04-08 | 8 | $118.20 | $945.6 |
| 2026-04-02 | 109 | $117.65 | $12,823.85 |
| 2026-03-31 | 2,722 | $112.47 | $306,143.34 |
| 2026-03-26 | 1 | $116.34 | $116.34 |
| 2026-03-25 | 52 | $115.80 | $6,021.6 |
| 2026-03-24 | 396 | $114.32 | $45,270.72 |
| 2026-03-03 | 10 | $124.43 | $1,244.3 |
| 2026-03-02 | 608 | $126.09 | $76,662.72 |
| 2026-02-25 | 1 | $126.25 | $126.25 |
| 2026-02-18 | 769 | $126.52 | $97,293.88 |
| 2026-02-12 | 98,861 | $129.48 | $12.8M |
| 2026-02-09 | 40 | $127.35 | $5,094 |
| 2026-02-06 | 9,126 | $127.42 | $1.2M |
| 2026-02-05 | 43,871 | $128.78 | $5.6M |
| 2026-02-03 | 130 | $124.61 | $16,199.3 |
| 2026-01-30 | 2 | $123.32 | $246.64 |
| 2026-01-27 | 970 | $122.11 | $118,446.7 |
| 2026-01-26 | 1 | $122.00 | $122 |
| 2026-01-23 | 34,600 | $123.56 | $4.3M |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| SWK | 0.707 | 0.696 | High co-movement |
| ITW | 0.678 | 0.614 | Moderate |
| NDSN | 0.631 | 0.608 | Moderate |
| IR | 0.626 | 0.649 | Moderate |
| CMI | 0.616 | 0.531 | Moderate |
| DD | 0.614 | 0.522 | Moderate |
| OC | 0.605 | 0.515 | Moderate |
| DOV | 0.602 | 0.513 | Moderate |
| MAS | 0.597 | 0.539 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare PCAR to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.