Cognex Corporation (CGNX)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicCGNX trades at 77.5x earnings, roughly in line with its sector average of 65.0x. Financial health metrics are strong: Piotroski 7/9, Altman Z 11.5 (above 3.0 safe zone threshold). DCF fair value of $29 implies 46% downside based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics of this technology firm present a distinct tension between high-quality earnings generation and inefficient capital deployment. While the DuPont decomposition reveals that robust net margins at 11.5% are the primary engine driving a 7.7% return on equity, asset turnover remains constrained at just under half a turn annually. This operational structure is compounded by a negative ROIC-WACC spread of -6.7%, indicating that current capital allocation destroys value relative to the cost of debt and equity. Despite these efficiency concerns, balance sheet resilience appears strong, evidenced by an Altman Z-Score of 11.2 and a low Beneish M-Score of -2.70 which suggests minimal earnings manipulation risk, supported further by a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 reflecting solid financial health trends.
Valuation metrics suggest the market is pricing in aggressive future expansion that current fundamentals do not yet support. The stock trades at a premium P/E multiple of 78.5x compared to the sector average of 58.2x, implying significant expectations for acceleration beyond the reported 8.7% revenue growth rate. This divergence is starkly highlighted by discounted cash flow analysis, which calculates a fair value significantly below current levels and projects an implied free cash flow growth trajectory of 21.7% over ten years—a rate that appears inconsistent with historical capital efficiency patterns. Consequently, the valuation gap suggests investors are betting on a fundamental shift in asset turnover or margin expansion rather than organic linear growth from existing operations.
Risk factor deltas further complicate the risk-reward profile by introducing conflicting signals regarding ownership and style exposure. While Fama-French alpha data indicates positive stock-specific performance of 0.39% annually, this is counterbalanced by a negative value factor loading of -0.290, confirming a pronounced growth tilt that may be vulnerable during mean reversion cycles. Furthermore, the observation of $18 million in net insider selling over the past ninety days introduces potential headwinds regarding management's view on near-term liquidity or strategic direction, adding another layer of caution to an already stretched valuation multiple and negative capital return profile.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 9% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 11.8% | 13.8% | 15.8% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $33 | $27 | $23 |
| 3% | $36 | $29 | $24 |
| 4% | $40 | $31 | $26 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $66.08.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=13.8%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $29 (-46.3%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 10% above its 5-year average P/E of 71.1x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedCognex Corporation currently trades at $64.26 within the technology sector, presenting a snapshot where short-term technical momentum appears to be diverging from longer-term trends. The intersection of moving averages suggests that immediate price action may be testing support levels established by broader historical costs, a pattern often observed when institutional capital reevaluates position sizing after periods of consolidation or correction. Volume dynamics in this context are critical; if trading activity remains subdued while prices fluctuate near these crossover points, it could indicate that large market participants are waiting for clearer directional confirmation before committing significant fresh capital to either side of the trade. The positioning of major players seems cautious rather than aggressively bullish at this juncture, as the lack of a sustained breakout above key resistance zones implies hesitation among sophisticated investors who typically lead price discovery in technology equities. Without accompanying volume surges that usually accompany institutional accumulation or distribution phases, the current market structure reflects a state of equilibrium where larger entities may be hedging exposure rather than initiating new long-term bets. This technical configuration does not necessarily signal an imminent reversal but highlights a period where liquidity provision from big money is thin, potentially leaving the stock susceptible to volatility driven by retail sentiment or macroeconomic shifts until more definitive volume-price relationships emerge to clarify the prevailing institutional stance.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-21 | $0.0850 | 0.0% |
| 2026-02-26 | $0.0850 | 0.0% |
| 2025-11-13 | $0.0850 | +6.3% |
| 2025-08-14 | $0.0800 | 0.0% |
| 2025-05-15 | $0.0800 | 0.0% |
| 2025-02-27 | $0.0800 | 0.0% |
| 2024-11-14 | $0.0800 | +6.7% |
| 2024-08-15 | $0.0750 | 0.0% |
| 2024-05-15 | $0.0750 | 0.0% |
| 2024-02-28 | $0.0750 | 0.0% |
| 2023-11-16 | $0.0750 | +7.1% |
| 2023-08-17 | $0.0700 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like MDYV or SPMD, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell CGNX shares regardless of Cognex Corporation's individual fundamentals. We estimate $714M of passive capital is structurally linked to CGNX through 8 tracked ETFs. Passive flows have a limited but growing influence on CGNX's daily trading dynamics.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Cognex Corporation to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Cognex Corporation (CGNX) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies FLEX LTD (FLEX) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 2 ETFs with CGNX. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 13 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
CGNX Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 12 CGNX shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Cognex Corporation (CGNX) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 0.3% of the MDYV (MDYV) and 0.3% of the SPMD (SPMD). Across 13 tracked ETFs, approximately 14M shares (8.3% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. As passive ownership grows, index inclusion changes may increasingly drive price discovery.
ETFs with Highest CGNX Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 13 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
CGNX Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Cognex Corporation over the past year sits near $40.84 (10% of 252-day volume). The current price of $66.08 trades 61.8% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
CGNX Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Cognex Corporation convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Cognex Corporation converts 122% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, an exceptional conversion rate indicating an asset-light business model with minimal capital reinvestment drag. However, the ROIC-WACC spread is negative (-6.8%), suggesting reinvested capital is destroying shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | 15,368 | $63.64 | $978,019.52 |
| 2026-05-13 | 29,078 | $65.68 | $1.9M |
| 2026-05-12 | 273,899 | $67.26 | $18.4M |
| 2026-05-08 | 3,645 | $65.92 | $240,278.4 |
| 2026-05-07 | 25,589 | $62.26 | $1.6M |
| 2026-05-04 | 691 | $55.94 | $38,654.54 |
| 2026-04-30 | 250 | $53.52 | $13,380 |
| 2026-04-20 | 802 | $55.50 | $44,511 |
| 2026-04-15 | 1,485 | $55.58 | $82,536.3 |
| 2026-04-10 | 41 | $53.91 | $2,210.31 |
| 2026-03-27 | 267 | $49.33 | $13,171.11 |
| 2026-03-11 | 103 | $50.58 | $5,209.74 |
| 2026-02-26 | 281 | $57.42 | $16,135.02 |
| 2026-02-23 | 1,867 | $56.03 | $104,608.01 |
| 2026-02-20 | 544 | $55.94 | $30,431.36 |
| 2026-02-18 | 66,751 | $57.09 | $3.8M |
| 2026-02-17 | 17,448 | $58.79 | $1.0M |
| 2026-02-13 | 315,628 | $58.67 | $18.5M |
| 2026-02-11 | 23,592 | $43.58 | $1.0M |
| 2026-02-05 | 55,758 | $40.73 | $2.3M |
| 2026-01-27 | 103 | $39.37 | $4,055.11 |
| 2026-01-08 | 2,369 | $37.93 | $89,856.17 |
| 2025-12-08 | 29,814 | $38.42 | $1.1M |
| 2025-11-18 | 41 | $35.98 | $1,475.18 |
| 2025-11-13 | 18 | $38.18 | $687.24 |
| 2025-11-12 | 55 | $38.40 | $2,112 |
| 2025-10-23 | 356 | $46.29 | $16,479.24 |
| 2025-10-22 | 6,477 | $48.27 | $312,644.79 |
| 2025-10-17 | 100 | $46.32 | $4,632 |
| 2025-10-14 | 744 | $43.74 | $32,542.56 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| FSLY | 0.552 | 0.625 | Moderate |
| XYL | 0.431 | 0.236 | Moderate |
| MAS | 0.416 | 0.330 | Moderate |
| SWK | 0.403 | 0.332 | Moderate |
| NDSN | 0.402 | 0.381 | Moderate |
| IRDM | 0.397 | 0.521 | Moderate |
| IRM | 0.385 | 0.450 | Moderate |
| CMI | 0.378 | 0.296 | Moderate |
| CW | 0.375 | 0.498 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare CGNX to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.