Commercial Metals Company (CMC)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicAt 17.0x earnings — a 62% discount to the sector average of 44.7x — CMC is in the lower valuation range. Financial health is average: Piotroski 4/9, Altman Z 3.9. Near modeled fair value — DCF estimates $61 (-9%).
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe capital allocation efficiency of Commercial Metals Company presents a significant structural challenge, evidenced by an ROIC-WACC spread of -10.3%, indicating that the firm is currently destroying value relative to its cost of capital. This underperformance stems from a DuPont decomposition where low net margins at 1.1% and modest revenue contraction of -1.6% are likely suppressing returns despite a healthy gross margin of 15.7%. While the Altman Z-Score of 3.9 suggests a moderate safety margin against bankruptcy, the Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 points to deteriorating fundamental strength compared to high-quality peers. Conversely, the Beneish M-Score of -2.88 indicates low earnings manipulation risk, suggesting that these operational metrics reflect genuine business headwinds rather than accounting distortions.
Valuation multiples reveal a substantial divergence between market pricing and historical norms; trading at 14.7x forward P/E represents an 81% discount to the five-year average of 76.4x and trades well below the sector median of 44.9x. However, this apparent bargain is tempered by a DCF fair value calculation that implies current levels are only -8.6% undervalued relative to intrinsic worth based on an assumed long-term FCF growth rate of 16.5%. The market appears to have already priced in the disparity between these aggressive growth assumptions and the company's recent negative revenue trajectory, creating a scenario where low multiples coexist with limited upside potential according to discounted cash flow models.
The risk-reward profile is further complicated by conflicting signals regarding quality versus value; while the suppressed valuation offers a margin of safety against downside volatility, the persistent gap between ROIC and WACC suggests that catalysts are required to restore capital efficiency before significant alpha can be generated. Investors must weigh whether the current discount reflects temporary cyclical pressures in the industrials sector or deeper structural issues inherent to the company's low-margin business model.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of -2% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 10.3% | 12.3% | 14.3% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $71 | $56 | $45 |
| 3% | $80 | $61 | $48 |
| 4% | $90 | $67 | $52 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $76.59.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=12.3%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $61 (-8.6%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 81% below its 5-year average P/E of 76.4x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedCommercial Metals Company is currently trading at $71.08, a level that requires contextualization against its moving average envelope to assess relative value. Without specific upper and lower band thresholds provided in the dataset, it remains unclear whether this price point represents an extension above the mean or a compression within normal volatility ranges. If the current valuation sits significantly distant from the central trend line, market mechanics often suggest increased probability of a corrective move back toward equilibrium, while proximity to the median implies continued adherence to established momentum patterns. The positioning relative to these statistical boundaries offers insight into potential mean-reversion dynamics rather than definitive directional signals. A price detached from its historical average envelope may indicate temporary overextension, whereas alignment with the center suggests stability consistent with recent sector trends for Industrials firms. Observers might note that extreme deviations frequently precede adjustments as algorithms and traders seek to normalize spreads, yet without knowing the exact width of the bands or the speed at which the stock approaches them, any assessment of reversal likelihood remains speculative. Ultimately, the technical narrative hinges on where $71.08 falls within the calculated distribution of recent prices. Traders analyzing this setup would examine whether the current distance from the mean is statistically significant enough to warrant an expectation of regression or if it simply reflects a healthy trend continuation phase. The absence of precise envelope data prevents a concrete determination, leaving the interpretation open to how market participants weigh historical volatility against present pricing action in the broader industrial landscape.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
Balance Sheet Health
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-06 | $0.2000 | +11.1% |
| 2026-01-16 | $0.1800 | 0.0% |
| 2025-10-30 | $0.1800 | 0.0% |
| 2025-06-30 | $0.1800 | 0.0% |
| 2025-03-31 | $0.1800 | 0.0% |
| 2025-01-16 | $0.1800 | 0.0% |
| 2024-10-31 | $0.1800 | 0.0% |
| 2024-07-01 | $0.1800 | 0.0% |
| 2024-03-28 | $0.1800 | +12.5% |
| 2024-01-17 | $0.1600 | 0.0% |
| 2023-10-25 | $0.1600 | 0.0% |
| 2023-06-30 | $0.1600 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like XME or VAW, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell CMC shares regardless of Commercial Metals Company's individual fundamentals. We estimate $713M of passive capital is structurally linked to CMC through 8 tracked ETFs. Passive flows have a limited but growing influence on CMC's daily trading dynamics.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Commercial Metals Company to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Commercial Metals Company (CMC) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies Linde plc (LIN) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with CMC. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 12 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
CMC Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 10 CMC shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Commercial Metals Company (CMC) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 4.5% of the XME (XME) and 0.5% of the VAW (VAW). Across 12 tracked ETFs, approximately 11M shares (10.0% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest CMC Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 12 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
CMC Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Commercial Metals Company over the past year sits near $59.06 (15% of 252-day volume). The current price of $76.59 trades 29.7% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target. The highly concentrated volume profile (15% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
CMC Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Commercial Metals Company convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Commercial Metals Company converts 71% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, an exceptional conversion rate indicating an asset-light business model with minimal capital reinvestment drag. However, the ROIC-WACC spread is negative (-10.3%), suggesting reinvested capital is destroying shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-08 | 49 | $70.52 | $3,455.48 |
| 2026-04-27 | 372 | $69.18 | $25,734.96 |
| 2026-04-23 | 100 | $69.54 | $6,954 |
| 2026-04-17 | 9,910 | $64.04 | $634,636.4 |
| 2026-04-07 | 200 | $61.27 | $12,254 |
| 2026-04-06 | 12,167 | $61.79 | $751,798.93 |
| 2026-03-24 | 109 | $61.88 | $6,744.92 |
| 2026-03-12 | 57 | $66.53 | $3,792.21 |
| 2026-03-02 | 43 | $73.30 | $3,151.9 |
| 2026-02-26 | 282 | $74.58 | $21,031.56 |
| 2026-02-17 | 55 | $79.64 | $4,380.2 |
| 2026-02-13 | 637 | $79.76 | $50,807.12 |
| 2026-02-09 | 358 | $82.99 | $29,710.42 |
| 2026-02-05 | 2,871 | $82.70 | $237,431.7 |
| 2026-02-02 | 7,696 | $76.87 | $591,591.52 |
| 2026-01-30 | 276 | $77.96 | $21,516.96 |
| 2026-01-27 | 2,803 | $76.12 | $213,364.36 |
| 2026-01-20 | 364 | $74.42 | $27,088.88 |
| 2026-01-16 | 999 | $75.80 | $75,724.2 |
| 2026-01-14 | 32,608 | $74.26 | $2.4M |
| 2026-01-12 | 4 | $72.46 | $289.84 |
| 2026-01-09 | 41 | $70.61 | $2,895.01 |
| 2026-01-07 | 3 | $74.61 | $223.83 |
| 2025-12-12 | 13 | $71.36 | $927.68 |
| 2025-12-09 | 439 | $66.76 | $29,307.64 |
| 2025-12-03 | 28 | $63.56 | $1,779.68 |
| 2025-12-01 | 2 | $63.78 | $127.56 |
| 2025-11-28 | 90 | $63.88 | $5,749.2 |
| 2025-11-20 | 1,997 | $57.65 | $115,127.05 |
| 2025-11-17 | 58,125 | $58.98 | $3.4M |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| STLD | 0.697 | 0.694 | Moderate |
| NUE | 0.652 | 0.661 | Moderate |
| WTFC | 0.645 | 0.643 | Moderate |
| RS | 0.641 | 0.625 | Moderate |
| FNB | 0.635 | 0.620 | Moderate |
| TFC | 0.629 | 0.659 | Moderate |
| CFG | 0.618 | 0.663 | Moderate |
| PH | 0.617 | 0.651 | Moderate |
| COLB | 0.617 | 0.594 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare CMC to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.