Steel Dynamics, Inc. (STLD)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicSTLD trades at 27.9x earnings, roughly in line with its sector average of 36.7x. Financial health is average: Piotroski 4/9, Altman Z 5.3. DCF fair value of $2 implies 99% downside based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics of Steel Dynamics, Inc. reveal a capital allocation challenge where the return on invested capital of 8.6% falls short of the weighted average cost of capital at 12.0%, generating a negative spread of -3.4%. Despite this efficiency drag, equity returns are sustained through financial leverage rather than operational expansion; the DuPont decomposition shows that an asset turnover of only 1.11x and net margins of 6.5% contribute minimally to the 13.3% ROE compared to the significant impact of the 1.84x equity multiplier. Credit metrics present a mixed picture, with an Altman Z-Score of 5.1 indicating moderate solvency while a low Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 suggests limited financial strength, though the negative Beneish M-Score of -2.39 offers some reassurance regarding earnings quality.
Valuation metrics indicate that the market is pricing in growth expectations significantly divergent from current operational performance. Although revenue grew merely 3.6% year-over-year with gross margins at 13.2%, the stock trades at a premium P/E of 22.6x versus a sector average of 36.1x, yet remains far above its calculated DCF fair value of $2, implying -98.6% downside if current assumptions hold. This disconnect suggests the market may be factoring in an unrealistic ten-year free cash flow growth rate of 34.6%, which is not supported by the modest margin profile or capital efficiency observed historically.
Risk-adjusted performance data highlights a divergence between factor exposures and realized returns over time. The stock exhibits positive Fama-French alpha of 2.71% annually, driven largely by strong tilts toward value (HML: 0.471) and robust profitability (RMW: 0.436). However, the negative ROIC-WACC spread acts as a headwind to long-term compound growth potential relative to peers with superior capital efficiency. With insider activity remaining neutral over the last ninety days, there is no immediate signal of management confidence or distress regarding future strategic direction based on available flow data.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 4% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 10.2% | 12.2% | 14.2% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $5 | $1 | $0 |
| 3% | $6 | $2 | $0 |
| 4% | $8 | $4 | $1 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $271.41.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=12.2%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $2 (-98.8%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 18% below its 5-year average P/E of 29.0x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | $0.5300 | +6.0% |
| 2025-12-31 | $0.5000 | 0.0% |
| 2025-09-30 | $0.5000 | 0.0% |
| 2025-06-30 | $0.5000 | 0.0% |
| 2025-03-31 | $0.5000 | +8.7% |
| 2024-12-31 | $0.4600 | 0.0% |
| 2024-09-30 | $0.4600 | 0.0% |
| 2024-06-28 | $0.4600 | 0.0% |
| 2024-03-27 | $0.4600 | +8.2% |
| 2023-12-28 | $0.4250 | 0.0% |
| 2023-09-28 | $0.4250 | 0.0% |
| 2023-06-29 | $0.4250 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like XME or XLB, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell STLD shares regardless of Steel Dynamics, Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $4.8B of passive capital is structurally linked to STLD through 8 tracked ETFs. Index rebalances and ETF creation/redemption cycles can create noticeable volume spikes unrelated to company news.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Steel Dynamics, Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Steel Dynamics, Inc. (STLD) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies Linde PLC (LIN) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with STLD. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 35 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
STLD Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 6 STLD shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Steel Dynamics, Inc. (STLD) exerts notable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 5.4% of the XME (XME) and 4.0% of the State Street Materials Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLB). Across 34 tracked ETFs, approximately 23M shares (15.8% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest STLD Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 34 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
STLD Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Steel Dynamics, Inc. over the past year sits near $130.69 (20% of 252-day volume). The current price of $271.41 trades 107.7% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target. The highly concentrated volume profile (20% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
STLD Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Steel Dynamics, Inc. convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Steel Dynamics, Inc. converts 24% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a moderate conversion rate — significant EBITDA is consumed by capital expenditures, working capital changes, or interest payments. The 76% reinvestment rate signals aggressive capacity expansion. However, the ROIC-WACC spread is negative (-3.5%), suggesting reinvested capital is destroying shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-21 | 6 | $209.35 | $1,256.1 |
| 2026-04-20 | 168 | $200.32 | $33,653.76 |
| 2026-04-08 | 67 | $177.19 | $11,871.73 |
| 2026-04-07 | 2,280 | $176.53 | $402,488.4 |
| 2026-04-06 | 2,553 | $180.20 | $460,050.6 |
| 2026-03-31 | 524 | $171.78 | $90,012.72 |
| 2026-03-26 | 20,560 | $173.47 | $3.6M |
| 2026-03-25 | 14 | $169.70 | $2,375.8 |
| 2026-03-11 | 6,406 | $182.19 | $1.2M |
| 2026-03-10 | 3 | $182.36 | $547.08 |
| 2026-02-13 | 417 | $199.51 | $83,195.67 |
| 2026-02-04 | 614 | $192.95 | $118,471.3 |
| 2026-02-03 | 38,545 | $186.55 | $7.2M |
| 2026-01-28 | 500 | $175.65 | $87,825 |
| 2026-01-27 | 1,102 | $173.32 | $190,998.64 |
| 2026-01-20 | 6,500 | $173.58 | $1.1M |
| 2026-01-14 | 22,678 | $169.84 | $3.9M |
| 2026-01-05 | 54 | $176.06 | $9,507.24 |
| 2025-12-22 | 500 | $174.28 | $87,140 |
| 2025-12-15 | 3,182 | $171.97 | $547,208.54 |
| 2025-12-03 | 15 | $167.63 | $2,514.45 |
| 2025-12-01 | 356 | $167.83 | $59,747.48 |
| 2025-11-24 | 614 | $158.16 | $97,110.24 |
| 2025-10-27 | 27 | $152.95 | $4,129.65 |
| 2025-10-16 | 6,137 | $146.05 | $896,308.85 |
| 2025-10-14 | 2,948 | $145.54 | $429,051.92 |
| 2025-10-08 | 76 | $142.73 | $10,847.48 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| NUE | 0.810 | 0.855 | High co-movement |
| CMC | 0.697 | 0.694 | Moderate |
| RS | 0.671 | 0.739 | Moderate |
| CLF | 0.606 | 0.542 | Moderate |
| WAB | 0.545 | 0.626 | Moderate |
| IR | 0.514 | 0.561 | Moderate |
| DOV | 0.507 | 0.468 | Moderate |
| SWK | 0.503 | 0.539 | Moderate |
| NDSN | 0.496 | 0.487 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare STLD to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.