Caesars Entertainment, Inc. (CZR)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicFinancial health is average: Piotroski 6/9, Altman Z 0.5. DCF fair value of $73 implies 173% upside from current prices based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics of Caesars Entertainment reveal a significant capital allocation inefficiency, characterized by an ROIC-WACC spread of -3.2%, indicating that the firm is currently destroying value relative to its cost of capital. This negative economic return stems from a DuPont-decomposed ROE of -13.6%, driven primarily by a net margin contraction to -4.4% despite robust gross margins at 50%; while asset turnover remains steady at 0.36x and leverage sits high at an equity multiplier of 8.58x, the bottom-line erosion negifies any potential gains from financial gearing or operational velocity. Although the Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 suggests moderate fundamental strength relative to peers, this is sharply contrasted by a distressing Altman Z-Score of 0.5 and weak profitability signals reflected in the Risk Model (RMW) factor alpha of -0.142, painting a picture of an entity struggling with earnings sustainability despite neutral insider flow over the last quarter.
Valuation metrics present a stark dichotomy between current market pricing and intrinsic value models derived from discounted cash flows. The stock trades at a premium relative to its historical range and significantly above the sector average P/E of 34.6x, yet the DCF model implies a fair value of $63 with an upside potential of 139.1%, suggesting the market may be overpricing future growth expectations or discounting risk excessively. This valuation gap relies heavily on an assumed ten-year free cash flow growth rate of 9.6%; if actual execution fails to meet this aggressive trajectory, the current multiple could compress rapidly given the underlying margin pressures.
Systematic risk factors further complicate the investment thesis, as evidenced by a substantial negative Fama-French alpha annualized at -36.57%, indicating poor performance relative to size and value benchmarks over the measured period. While the HML factor score of 0.083 remains neutral regarding value exposure, the pronounced weakness in profitability metrics combined with the low Altman Z-Score introduces elevated downside risk that contradicts the optimistic DCF assumptions. The convergence of negative economic spreads, distress-level solvency indicators, and significant underperformance on style factors suggests a high-risk environment where realized returns may diverge sharply from modelled fair value estimates.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 2% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 6% | 7.9% | 9.9% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $109 | $54 | $25 |
| 3% | $158 | $73 | $34 |
| 4% | $256 | $102 | $47 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $29.22.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=7.9%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $73 (+173.4%). Not investment advice.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedCaesars Entertainment operates within the consumer cyclical sector, a domain inherently sensitive to discretionary spending patterns and broader economic fluctuations. At the current price level of $27.62, the stock's trajectory reflects the ongoing tension between recovery potential in leisure industries and persistent macroeconomic headwinds that often suppress valuation multiples for such equities. The absence of immediate fundamental data necessitates a cautious interpretation where any observed momentum must be weighed against the structural risks typical of cyclical exposures during uncertain growth phases. Technical indicators suggest a fragile equilibrium rather than robust, sustainable upward pressure. Without specific trendline confirmations or volume surges to validate price increases, current movements may represent transient liquidity flows rather than deepening institutional conviction. The drawdown history implied by the sector's recent performance highlights how quickly gains can evaporate when consumer sentiment shifts, indicating that volatility remains a defining characteristic of this asset class. Consequently, the technical picture presents a scenario where short-term rallies lack the fundamental underpinning required to withstand potential downside pressure from economic tightening or reduced travel demand. Ultimately, the interplay between price action and sector dynamics points to a market structure prone to sharp reversals rather than steady appreciation. Investors must recognize that momentum in this environment is often reactive to external catalysts rather than an intrinsic shift in business fundamentals. The current setup demands vigilance regarding volatility spikes, as historical drawdowns in similar cyclical contexts have frequently erased prior gains within short timeframes. Decision-making should therefore prioritize risk management
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like SLYV or SPSM, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell CZR shares regardless of Caesars Entertainment, Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $218M of passive capital is structurally linked to CZR through 8 tracked ETFs. Passive flows have a limited but growing influence on CZR's daily trading dynamics.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Caesars Entertainment, Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Caesars Entertainment, Inc. (CZR) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with CZR. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 8 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
CZR Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 24 CZR shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Caesars Entertainment, Inc. (CZR) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 0.7% of the SLYV (SLYV) and 0.3% of the SPSM (SPSM). Across 8 tracked ETFs, approximately 9M shares (4.2% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. As passive ownership grows, index inclusion changes may increasingly drive price discovery.
ETFs with Highest CZR Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 8 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
CZR Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Caesars Entertainment, Inc. over the past year sits near $25.75 (11% of 252-day volume). The current price of $29.22 trades 13.5% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
CZR Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Caesars Entertainment, Inc. convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Caesars Entertainment, Inc. converts 15% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a low conversion rate suggesting heavy reinvestment. This may indicate a growth phase (building capacity) or structural capital intensity. The 85% reinvestment rate signals aggressive capacity expansion. However, the ROIC-WACC spread is negative (-2.8%), suggesting reinvested capital is destroying shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | 3 | $26.79 | $80.37 |
| 2026-05-13 | 18,954 | $25.41 | $481,621.14 |
| 2026-05-12 | 3,642 | $27.77 | $101,138.34 |
| 2026-05-11 | 29 | $28.04 | $813.16 |
| 2026-04-27 | 852 | $28.12 | $23,958.24 |
| 2026-04-22 | 151 | $27.64 | $4,173.64 |
| 2026-04-20 | 147 | $27.22 | $4,001.34 |
| 2026-04-09 | 36,500 | $26.85 | $980,025 |
| 2026-04-08 | 41,600 | $26.58 | $1.1M |
| 2026-04-02 | 122,644 | $26.55 | $3.3M |
| 2026-03-25 | 2,349 | $26.31 | $61,802.19 |
| 2026-03-23 | 99 | $26.76 | $2,649.24 |
| 2026-03-20 | 1,054 | $27.44 | $28,921.76 |
| 2026-03-19 | 4 | $27.43 | $109.72 |
| 2026-03-18 | 64,904 | $27.33 | $1.8M |
| 2026-03-16 | 28,659 | $28.06 | $804,171.54 |
| 2026-03-13 | 28,218 | $28.41 | $801,673.38 |
| 2026-03-11 | 1 | $26.01 | $26.01 |
| 2026-03-10 | 31 | $25.76 | $798.56 |
| 2026-03-09 | 17,582 | $26.40 | $464,164.8 |
| 2026-03-06 | 101,467 | $26.59 | $2.7M |
| 2026-03-02 | 148,798 | $25.05 | $3.7M |
| 2026-02-25 | 148 | $20.34 | $3,010.32 |
| 2026-02-17 | 4 | $18.14 | $72.56 |
| 2026-02-04 | 583,556 | $20.56 | $12.0M |
| 2026-02-03 | 586,417 | $20.59 | $12.1M |
| 2026-02-02 | 9,166 | $20.70 | $189,736.2 |
| 2026-01-29 | 42,349 | $21.28 | $901,186.72 |
| 2026-01-27 | 455 | $22.37 | $10,178.35 |
| 2026-01-21 | 15 | $22.85 | $342.75 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| MGM | 0.675 | 0.660 | Moderate |
| HST | 0.474 | 0.338 | Moderate |
| SWK | 0.472 | 0.332 | Moderate |
| HBAN | 0.457 | 0.346 | Moderate |
| ASB | 0.451 | 0.285 | Moderate |
| USB | 0.444 | 0.330 | Moderate |
| KEY | 0.438 | 0.307 | Moderate |
| GRMN | 0.431 | 0.420 | Moderate |
| NWSA | 0.429 | 0.359 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare CZR to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.