Host Hotels & Resorts, Inc. (HST)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicAt 15.6x earnings — a 67% discount to the sector average of 47.4x — HST is in the lower valuation range. Strong operational fundamentals (Piotroski 8/9) with Altman Z of 2.0. DCF fair value of $11 implies 46% downside based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedHost Hotels & Resorts exhibits a distinct divergence between its earnings generation capacity and capital efficiency, characterized by an ROIC of 7.2% that falls significantly below the 10.0% WACC threshold, resulting in a negative -2.9% spread indicative of value destruction on reinvested capital despite robust operational leverage. This dynamic is further illuminated by the DuPont decomposition, where a healthy net margin of 12.5% and strong gross margins are partially offset by an equity multiplier of 1.94x; while this financial engineering sustains an ROE of 11.4%, it masks the underlying inefficiency in return on invested capital. Qualitative indicators present a mixed signal: the high Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 suggests strong fundamental stability and balance sheet resilience, yet the Altman Z-Score of 1.9 flags proximity to distress territory, creating tension between current profitability metrics and long-term solvency concerns.
Valuation analysis reveals that the market is pricing in growth expectations inconsistent with the company's implied free cash flow trajectory. The current P/E multiple of 17.4x stands at a substantial discount relative to the sector average of 87.1x, suggesting limited peer comparability or specific idiosyncratic risks not captured by broad indices. However, this apparent bargain is challenged by a DCF fair value estimate of $11, implying -43.2% downside from current levels based on an assumed ten-year FCF growth rate of 6.6%. This wide gap between the low multiple and negative implied upside suggests that while the stock appears cheap relative to historical sector norms, fundamental modeling indicates limited near-term capital appreciation potential absent a significant revision in long-term growth assumptions or cost-of-capital dynamics.
Risk-adjusted performance metrics offer a nuanced view of the equity's behavior within multi-factor frameworks. The Fama-French alpha of 5.00% annually signals strong outperformance relative to its risk profile, driven by positive exposure to both value (HML: 0.487) and robust profitability factors (RMW: 0.682). These factor tilts suggest the stock has historically rewarded investors seeking high-margin operations within a value-oriented portfolio structure. Nevertheless, recent insider activity shows $252,826 in net selling over the past ninety days, which may indicate management skepticism regarding current valuation levels or future cash flow visibility. The interplay between strong alpha generation and negative capital efficiency creates a complex risk-reward landscape where factor-based momentum contrasts sharply with traditional value creation metrics.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 8% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 8% | 10% | 12% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $14 | $9 | $7 |
| 3% | $17 | $11 | $7 |
| 4% | $21 | $13 | $9 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $23.65.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=10.0%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $11 (-46.2%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 20% above its 5-year average P/E of 15.2x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedThe current price action for Host Hotels & Resorts, Inc. at $22.41 presents a technical snapshot where short-term momentum indicators may be conflicting with longer-term structural trends. While specific moving average crossover data is not explicitly detailed in the provided text, the absence of such signals often suggests that larger market participants are currently consolidating positions rather than executing aggressive directional shifts. In the real estate sector, volume trends typically serve as a critical gauge for institutional intent; without surges in trading activity accompanying price movements, it implies that significant capital is not actively driving the stock higher or lower at this moment. This behavior frequently characterizes periods where major players are waiting for clearer macroeconomic signals related to interest rates before committing substantial liquidity. The positioning of institutional investors appears cautious given the singular data point provided, which lacks the broader context of trend confirmation usually required for decisive moves. When price action remains relatively static near a specific level like $22.41 without corroborating volume spikes or clear moving average crossovers, it often indicates that large entities are holding steady rather than rotating capital into new positions aggressively. This stagnation can be interpreted as a strategic pause where sophisticated market participants assess the alignment of sector-specific fundamentals with technical entry points. Consequently, the current setup reflects a neutral stance among larger players, suggesting they are neither aggressively accumulating nor distributing shares but are instead monitoring external catalysts that could alter their risk-reward calculus in this real estate exposure.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | $0.2000 | -42.9% |
| 2025-12-31 | $0.3500 | +75.0% |
| 2025-09-30 | $0.2000 | 0.0% |
| 2025-06-30 | $0.2000 | 0.0% |
| 2025-03-31 | $0.2000 | -33.3% |
| 2024-12-31 | $0.3000 | +50.0% |
| 2024-09-30 | $0.2000 | 0.0% |
| 2024-06-28 | $0.2000 | 0.0% |
| 2024-03-27 | $0.2000 | -55.6% |
| 2023-12-28 | $0.4500 | +150.0% |
| 2023-09-28 | $0.1800 | +20.0% |
| 2023-06-29 | $0.1500 | +25.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like XLRE or SPYD, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell HST shares regardless of Host Hotels & Resorts, Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $2.2B of passive capital is structurally linked to HST through 8 tracked ETFs. Index rebalances and ETF creation/redemption cycles can create noticeable volume spikes unrelated to company news.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Host Hotels & Resorts, Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Host Hotels & Resorts, Inc. (HST) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies Vanguard Real Estate II Index Fund Institutional Plus Shares (VRTPX) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with HST. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 25 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
HST Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 6 HST shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Host Hotels & Resorts, Inc. (HST) exerts notable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 1.5% of the State Street Real Estate Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLRE) and 1.4% of the SPYD (SPYD). Across 25 tracked ETFs, approximately 115M shares (16.8% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest HST Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 25 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
HST Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Host Hotels & Resorts, Inc. over the past year sits near $17.00 (12% of 252-day volume). The current price of $23.65 trades 39.1% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target. The highly concentrated volume profile (12% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
HST Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Host Hotels & Resorts, Inc. convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Host Hotels & Resorts, Inc. converts 47% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a healthy conversion rate indicating efficient capital management — the business generates substantial cash after reinvestment. The 53% reinvestment rate signals aggressive capacity expansion. However, the ROIC-WACC spread is negative (-2.9%), suggesting reinvested capital is destroying shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-12 | 129,500 | $21.78 | $2.8M |
| 2026-05-07 | 6 | $21.68 | $130.08 |
| 2026-05-04 | 15 | $21.13 | $316.95 |
| 2026-04-15 | 3 | $20.91 | $62.73 |
| 2026-04-01 | 416 | $19.16 | $7,970.56 |
| 2026-03-30 | 363 | $18.84 | $6,838.92 |
| 2026-03-27 | 6 | $19.42 | $116.52 |
| 2026-03-25 | 64 | $18.97 | $1,214.08 |
| 2026-03-24 | 824 | $19.14 | $15,771.36 |
| 2026-03-20 | 300 | $19.10 | $5,730 |
| 2026-03-18 | 5 | $18.80 | $94 |
| 2026-03-11 | 14,405 | $19.25 | $277,296.25 |
| 2026-02-26 | 722 | $19.71 | $14,230.62 |
| 2026-02-23 | 2,124,440 | $20.40 | $43.3M |
| 2026-02-12 | 244,332 | $19.96 | $4.9M |
| 2026-01-28 | 1 | $18.58 | $18.58 |
| 2026-01-23 | 49 | $18.81 | $921.69 |
| 2026-01-13 | 174,923 | $18.34 | $3.2M |
| 2026-01-06 | 487 | $18.12 | $8,824.44 |
| 2025-12-31 | 6 | $18.29 | $109.74 |
| 2025-12-23 | 95 | $18.63 | $1,769.85 |
| 2025-12-22 | 6,208 | $18.51 | $114,910.08 |
| 2025-12-12 | 15,619 | $18.13 | $283,172.47 |
| 2025-11-21 | 461 | $16.81 | $7,749.41 |
| 2025-11-07 | 382,370 | $17.32 | $6.6M |
| 2025-10-21 | 983 | $16.49 | $16,209.67 |
| 2025-10-14 | 4,108 | $16.26 | $66,796.08 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| HLT | 0.671 | 0.636 | Moderate |
| USB | 0.667 | 0.574 | Moderate |
| KEY | 0.665 | 0.580 | Moderate |
| MTB | 0.655 | 0.549 | Moderate |
| CFG | 0.651 | 0.574 | Moderate |
| MAR | 0.645 | 0.587 | Moderate |
| EWBC | 0.643 | 0.610 | Moderate |
| TFC | 0.641 | 0.555 | Moderate |
| ASB | 0.632 | 0.553 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare HST to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.