Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (HLT)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicHilton Worldwide Holdings Inc.'s P/E of 50.0 is above its sector average (35.0x), though accompanied by a 6.8% economic spread (ROIC − WACC). Financial health is average: Piotroski 5/9, Altman Z 3.0. DCF fair value of $60 implies 82% downside based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics of Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. present a complex dichotomy between operational efficiency and capital structure distortions. While the company generates robust cash flows evidenced by a 17.3% ROIC significantly outpacing its 10.5% WACC, creating a healthy +6.8% spread, this value is obscured by an anomalous DuPont ROE of -27.3%. This negative return stems entirely from high leverage (Equity Multiplier of -3.14x), likely reflecting recent recapitalization activity rather than operational failure, as the underlying margin profile remains healthy with a 12.1% net margin and 0.72x asset turnover. Quality metrics further nuance this picture: the Piotroski F-Score of 5/9 suggests moderate financial stability, while the Altman Z-Score of 2.9 sits in a gray zone warranting caution regarding solvency risks, though the Beneish M-Score of -2.62 indicates low probability of earnings manipulation and supports the credibility of reported profitability factors like RMW (0.485).
Valuation metrics reveal significant divergence between market pricing and intrinsic value models. The current P/E multiple of 49.7x trades at a substantial discount to the sector average of 57.0x, yet it commands a premium over historical norms, implying that investors are pricing in aggressive future expansion rather than current earnings power. This optimism is quantified by an implied ten-year free cash flow growth rate of 23.0%, which appears necessary to justify the stock's price given a DCF fair value estimate of $60, representing an -80.3% upside gap from current levels. Such a wide disparity suggests the market may be overestimating the sustainability of this high-growth trajectory or that significant downside risk remains unpriced into the multiple.
Risk-adjusted performance indicators offer conflicting signals regarding future alpha generation and ownership sentiment. The stock exhibits strong Fama-French factor tilts, specifically benefiting from robust profitability (RMW: 0.485) and a value orientation (HML: 0.277), while simultaneously delivering an annualized Fama-French Alpha of 8.91%, indicating outperformance relative to its risk factors over the measured period. However, these quantitative strengths are counterbalanced by recent insider dynamics showing $36,283,559 in net selling over the last ninety days, a signal that often precedes near-term price corrections or reflects management's view on current valuation levels.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 8% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 8.6% | 10.6% | 12.6% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $78 | $51 | $35 |
| 3% | $94 | $60 | $40 |
| 4% | $117 | $71 | $46 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $332.85.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=10.6%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $60 (-81.8%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 16% below its 5-year average P/E of 63.1x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedHilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. is currently trading at $322.76, a position that requires contextualization against its moving average envelope to assess relative value. Without specific deviation metrics or bandwidth data for the short-term and long-term SMAs, it remains unclear whether this price point represents an extreme outlier near the channel boundaries or sits comfortably within the established mean. If the current level were significantly distant from the central SMA trend line while touching outer bands, it would statistically suggest a heightened probability of a corrective move back toward the average, reflecting classic mean-reversion mechanics common in consumer cyclical sectors. Conversely, if the price remains aligned with the median channel path, it implies sustained momentum rather than an imminent reversal. The absence of explicit band proximity data prevents a definitive conclusion on whether the asset is overextended or fairly valued relative to its recent historical trajectory. In such scenarios, technical analysis typically looks for exhaustion signals when prices breach envelope limits, whereas consolidation near the center often indicates equilibrium. For HLT specifically, determining if $322.76 constitutes a statistical anomaly compared to recent volatility patterns would be necessary to gauge potential reversal strength. Observers might note that consumer discretionary stocks frequently exhibit cyclical behavior where price action oscillates between these dynamic boundaries, making the precise location of this current price relative to the SMA envelope a critical variable for understanding future directional bias without guaranteeing an outcome.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-22 | $0.1500 | 0.0% |
| 2026-02-27 | $0.1500 | 0.0% |
| 2025-11-21 | $0.1500 | 0.0% |
| 2025-08-29 | $0.1500 | 0.0% |
| 2025-05-23 | $0.1500 | 0.0% |
| 2025-02-21 | $0.1500 | 0.0% |
| 2024-11-15 | $0.1500 | 0.0% |
| 2024-08-23 | $0.1500 | 0.0% |
| 2024-05-16 | $0.1500 | 0.0% |
| 2024-02-22 | $0.1500 | 0.0% |
| 2023-11-16 | $0.1500 | 0.0% |
| 2023-08-24 | $0.1500 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like IWP or XLY, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell HLT shares regardless of Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $9.7B of passive capital is structurally linked to HLT through 8 tracked ETFs. This substantial passive exposure means that ETF inflows and outflows — not company fundamentals — can dominate daily volume on this stock.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (HLT) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies AMAZON.COM INC (AMZN) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with HLT. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 31 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
HLT Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 7 HLT shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (HLT) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 2.5% of the IWP (IWP) and 1.7% of the State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLY). Across 30 tracked ETFs, approximately 31M shares (13.6% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest HLT Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 30 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
HLT Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. over the past year sits near $269.58 (12% of 252-day volume). The current price of $332.85 trades 23.5% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target. The highly concentrated volume profile (12% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
HLT Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. converts 68% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, an exceptional conversion rate indicating an asset-light business model with minimal capital reinvestment drag. The positive ROIC-WACC spread of 6.8% confirms that reinvested capital creates shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-27 | 11 | $335.63 | $3,691.93 |
| 2026-04-20 | 1,700 | $341.03 | $579,751 |
| 2026-04-14 | 54 | $327.26 | $17,672.04 |
| 2026-04-06 | 3 | $304.95 | $914.85 |
| 2026-03-25 | 24 | $299.91 | $7,197.84 |
| 2026-03-23 | 983 | $292.58 | $287,606.14 |
| 2026-03-13 | 5,862 | $294.26 | $1.7M |
| 2026-03-05 | 26 | $304.91 | $7,927.66 |
| 2026-03-02 | 200 | $311.78 | $62,356 |
| 2026-02-27 | 57 | $317.83 | $18,116.31 |
| 2026-02-23 | 6,694 | $315.96 | $2.1M |
| 2026-02-17 | 57,518 | $314.62 | $18.1M |
| 2026-02-12 | 16,323 | $325.13 | $5.3M |
| 2026-02-10 | 18,611 | $314.03 | $5.8M |
| 2026-02-02 | 200 | $298.51 | $59,702 |
| 2026-01-30 | 156 | $299.28 | $46,687.68 |
| 2026-01-09 | 336 | $298.33 | $100,238.88 |
| 2026-01-05 | 68 | $292.98 | $19,922.64 |
| 2025-12-19 | 657 | $287.67 | $188,999.19 |
| 2025-12-17 | 94 | $285.83 | $26,868.02 |
| 2025-12-16 | 180 | $285.85 | $51,453 |
| 2025-12-11 | 207 | $271.23 | $56,144.61 |
| 2025-12-08 | 2,267 | $272.25 | $617,190.75 |
| 2025-11-19 | 31 | $267.94 | $8,306.14 |
| 2025-10-20 | 10,000 | $260.27 | $2.6M |
| 2025-10-16 | 663 | $265.11 | $175,767.93 |
| 2025-10-10 | 14,700 | $260.10 | $3.8M |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| MAR | 0.852 | 0.844 | High co-movement |
| HST | 0.671 | 0.636 | Moderate |
| CCL | 0.659 | 0.650 | Moderate |
| MTB | 0.610 | 0.543 | Moderate |
| EWBC | 0.608 | 0.554 | Moderate |
| RCL | 0.605 | 0.575 | Moderate |
| ABCB | 0.582 | 0.490 | Moderate |
| TFC | 0.581 | 0.536 | Moderate |
| SSB | 0.580 | 0.538 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare HLT to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.